In Order For A Goal To Be Effective

Many of you know that I am a very goal oriented person. It inadvertently started when I was about 15 and my first boss and a reader today used to use a list everyday to get things done. I didn't know it then, but using a list of things to is the last but critical step in having effective goals. The fact his list was in writing, satisfied one of the 5 criteria to a meaningful goal. Some people use the acronym SMART.

Specific

Measurable

Achievable (we'll talk about that one in a minute)

Relevant

Time Oriented

Now Butch's to do list was very specific, usually measurable, often very achievable, relevant (Ok there were a few times I saw him put stuff on his list that would make you wonder how relevant? Come on, one day he put "Polish my belts.") and they were time oriented because it was his list for the day.

I eventually just used in writing, time oriented, flexible, realistic, and measurable. It has served me well over the years. That is why when I looked at the State of The Union Address and heard President Obama stress his goal of doubling US exports over the next 5 years, I had to put it to the stress test. I assume it was in writing as he was reading it off a teleprompter. It was time oriented. It will end up being VERY flexible. It is measurable as we know what exports are now. Is it achievable?

The last time US exports doubled over a 5 year period was, oh yeah NEVER. Since he first made the pitch, two years ago, we have seen exports rise 11% in 2010 and 7% last year. That means we will need to see an average growth rate of just under 20% for the next three years. Now we are not saying it is impossible, but it will take huge global demand for stuff made here or a serious devaluation of the US dollar. Usually big shifts in global exports comes from big ticket capital intensive products, not labor intensive products. Keep in mind his goal is to double exports to increase employment. The means are not aligned with the goal. We applaud his ambition, but question the vision as anything other than a cool sound bite.

(Cool sound bite history, it is rumored that Robert McNamara Defense Secretary was meeting with President Kennedy and brother Bobby as they had a problem as to how to explain the development of the Saturn V engine to create the intercontinental ballistic missile system. The Russians could blast stuff off and if people asked questions, they were shot. The US did not have that luxury. It was Bobby who came up with the idea, "Let's tell them we are going to the moon." And the rest was history.)

In The Market Today

It was quiet flat day in the market, but our rally which was identified in December 20th is on its 30th day now. That is a nice run and one that we have not seen since the fall of 2010. Let's hope we can squeeze out a few more days before we see pressure. A good initial jobless claim number started the day off ok, and we just could not get excited about anything else.

We added to some of our bond holdings. We bought more of our 6% CitiGroup Bonds which are still trading at a slight discount yielding about 7%. (5716515), we also added some Gen Motors 6% SmartNotes for 2019 with a coupon rate of 6% yielding just under 8% (6317205), some new bonds we added today were some Sommerville County TX tax exempt bonds with a coupon rate of 5.125 which are selling at a premium so our yield to maturity is just above 4% (8450178), and we got some State of TX tax exempt 4.75% at a premium yielding just above 4% (8660263). We are trying to get to about 30% bonds when we are through rearranging the portfolio.

Not much to say about our core holdings, UNFI, MSFT, XOM, CELG, GWW, NUAN, CATM, MGRC, CATM, GLD and VXX.

CATM was down today despite a decent quarter and an announcement they ogt the ATM machine contract for all of the Valero Oil Companies.

XOM was off a little but that could be the flatness of the underlying commodity. We are thinking of adding more XOM in some of the account that have the cash.

Salve Lucrum