BAGAKOAA; 29 January 2012 Did You Miss Me Mr. Market?

Post 585 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsJanuary/2012

Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages;

 

Wow that feels good to type again. Yeah I been gone, and even though I told you I would be gone I got quite a few notes asking where I went? Ok, you want a quick rundown on my week.

 

Day 1.5 from the house to LAX to Atlanta to Johannesburg SA, to Cape Town SA, 30.5 hours. Arrived to tired to enjoy the obligatory single malt night cap. (Actually, I could have made the drink, but I was very ripe and would have offended the local population.)

 

Day 2, store visit (That is where we PADI people stop in and say thanks to our many loyal members. Peter had us on a tight schedule most of the time so the visits were brief and unannounced. By our third visit, word was out the big wigs from PADI were in town.) After the store visit, we met some of the locals.

 

Then we visited Cape Point,

 

which many believe (yours truly included) is the southern most point of land in SA. In reality it is Cape Agulhas, about 90 miles east, but we stood there with a few other folk looking out as though we were at lands end trying to distinguish the Indian Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. Store visit, store visit, then Member Forum. (That is when the Regional Manager, in this case Mr. Peter Driessel-new reader as of this post) tells a gathering of our members all that is new and groovy at PADI. We had about 73 people at this gathering, a good turn out. People were obviously there to see retiring Mr. Douglas Nash, my friend, who accompanied me on this trip. I got to control the lights for the presentation.

 

The next day were off to the University of South Africa which as a great scuba program. It is nestled in the hills of Stellenbosch, which happens to be the home of one of my favorite wines, Fusion V by DeToren. I just happened to have their number with me and Peter got directions and we were graced with a nice tour and taste of the 2009 Fusion Five. (I am ordering two cases tomorrow, it is that good.) Another store visit and another and it was time to head back to the hotel.

 

Then we started making our way toward Port Elizabeth with several store visits along the way. One was actually in the hotel we were staying at, The Beacon Island Hotel.

 

More store visits.

 

The next day we had a brief store visit then we managed to sneak out to Addo Elephant Reserve where we got to tease the animals a bit. We saw Elephant, Ostrich, Kudu, Reebok, Wart Hogs, Zebras, Tortoise, and a Lion which once it stood had tusks coming out of its face so we are thinking it was another wart hog. We missed the elusive Lion, but a great afternoon.

 

Then we had another member forum and late meal which included Carpaccio. Now that is not impressive as I have had beef Carpaccio all over the world. Well this was a Carpaccio trio of Ostrich, Kudu, and Wart Hog. Liked the Wart Hog as it tasted like a fine Italian ham. The Kudu was gamey and a bit like Venison, but the ostrich was a new taste I could not describe, but I would have it again. In case you don't know, Carpaccio is raw thinly shaved meat with parmesan cheese, olive oil, basil, and occasionally and properly served with capers. It was a great meal. Peter, the wine was a 2004 Groote Castancia, a burgundy style grape, delicious.

 

It looks like I missed a day there somewhere, but we spent a lot of time in the car driving as SA is a big country. Then it was time to have a leisurely morning and start my 31.5 hour trek home to deliver trinkets to the family. It is good to be home. And even better as I am having dinner at Hannah's to see if they survived the week without me. (BTW, one of our readers actually believed that I get special pricing at Hannah's. I pay full boat and I am proud of it and then even a bit more. Ok Dave bought my lunch once. Come on dude loosen up a bit.)

 

I will get some pictures posted from the trip and send you link in a day or so.

 

It is good the market did not abandon me while I was gone.

Did you miss me Mr. Market?

 

Apparently not much as the Nasdaq was up about a point, the Dow was down about half a point and my index, the S&P 500 didn't budge at all. Our core holdings are looking really smart.

 

UNFI up 13.1%

MSFT up 8.8%

XOM up.5%

CELG up 7.4%

GWW up 3.6%

NUAN up 9.2%

CATM up .3%

And a GLD June call option up 34.5%.

Our Jan 2013 VXX call is down about 48% and we will be adding to that position this week.

 

The metals drew a lot of attention this week. Dana sent in a nice piece about the blow out sales of the US Amercan Eagle coin with 2011 sales being 11% above 2010 and early January figure have the metal even more popular this month. (We have Jack Man in an old SLV etf that was down as much as 76% and it is recovered about half way since October.

 

We are thinking about adding to our GLD position or looking at maybe a new July or August play on the yellow stuff as there are a lot of bullish tells that would support that move. The debt situation is very porous at the moment. World wide interest rates are in the toillte so folk are looking for safety but something that will generate a yield which leaves two basic options metals and corporate bonds. Money flows at headed in both directions from money market accounts. (yes there is some money headed into the equity market, mostly favoring high yield-above 4%- equities). Then you have the inevitable (I've been saying inevitable for two years and it ain't happened yet) inflation. In relation to that issue, either inflation or the devaluation of the dollar or both plays well for gold. China (who economy should start reacting to recent easing) is getting gold fever with their 300 million person middle class having the dispoasable income to buy trinkets and that this looks like (from a technical aspect) the 12 year of a gold bull market.

 

No matter how you slice it, there are more reasons than not, to like Gold. How much higher could it go? UBS, Citi, and Goldman all have some pretty smart analysts working there and their guesses are in the 2,200-2,400 range for this year.

 

Speaking of yields, I know a few of you are yield hounds so when I get a good piece I will usually pass it on. Once of my energy newsletters sent out a nice list of high yielding energy sector stocks. WE DO NOT OWN THESE AND HAVE NOT DONE THE HOMEWORK:

EEP YIELD 6.54%

PSE " 7.5%

PPL " 5.6%

KMP " 5.6%

DO YOU HOMEWROK ESPECIALLY THE PAYOUT RATIO TO SEE IF THE YIELDS ARE SUSTAINABLE.

 

Now if you are watching LNG and say Limbo Man, How Low Can You Go? Here are a few gas ETFs and stocks plays, we are watching UNG, TLT, CHK, FCG, AMJ, XOM (WE OWN). Thank you Seeking Alpha for that idea. DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Use Morningstar on the ETFs to do the homework.

 

If you want to keep your finger nails clean and not play in the energy sector and like all the tech news of late, look at the ETF, XLK. WE DO NOT OWN.

 

If you can't figure out what sector to play, as long as we continue to see a rally, (remember the trend is our friend) take your money and consider putting 15% in each of the following ETFs

 

Sel Sector:Materials SPDR (XLB)
Sel Sector:FinancialsS SPDR (XLF)
Sel Sector:Tech SPDR (XLK)
Sel Sector:Energy SPDR (XLE)
Sel Sector:Utility SPDR (XLU)
Sel Sector:Health Care SPDR (XLV)
Sel Sector:Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)

 

Or you can do what we do, look at each of the ETFs in Morningstar and see what the top ten holdings there are and see if any look like nice CAN SLIM Candidates.

 

Nordstrom's is having a sale on cashmere sweaters for the next 24 months. (Got Linda's attention on that one.) Now how stupid would it be if Nordstrom's ran an ad that said XYZ is on sale for the next 24 months. Yeah that ain't going to get a lot of folk to run down to Nordies to pepper spray their fellow man to get a hot deal, is it? Well that is what or Fed did last week in all of its divine wisdom. They announced low low interest rates through 2014 and hinted they will be doing things to make the dollar a little more liquid, aka more quantitative easing. Now that gave the market a bit of high last week, but it was a sugar high as it indicates that the Fed does not see a bright future ahead. Now if you were thinking about buying capital equipment for your company or borrowing money to hire a few thousand folk or were thinking of buying a home, the Fed just told all of those folks, "Take your time. No Hurry. Cheap Money will be around forever." Yeah brilliant. Uncle Ben should have said, "Because our recent sale or giveaway of dollars has been so popular, we have decided to extend our sale, but inventory is limited so get down to you bank and grab some of these cheap buck today. Deal Ends Soon!"

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

S&P 500 1,358

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