BAGAKOAA; 13 December 2011 That Be Snow In There Mountains

Post 562 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsDecember/2011

That Be Snow In There Mountains

 

snow santiago

What a wonderful but early day. We did not post last night and for good reason. We be tired. After a delicious home cooked meal (Devin did some ham steaks, home fires, and great Caesar salad.) I helped Jack with some English homework. Yes, me helping someone else with English. I don't know a dangling participle from a (hold it I have to look up another grammar word) passive equivalent. What I found out was amazing.

 

million words

After typing millions of words on the computer, you can highlight a word, do a right click, go to "look up" and you can use a dictionary and a thesaurus for information about the word you highlighted. Seriously. Go ahead and try. If your e-mail browser is not MS Word, just cut and paste this paragraph and try it. I sit here while you do it. Mm mm mm, mm mm mm, mm mm mm mm mmm. (That was Jingle Bells if you were wondering.) Ok your back, Cool.

 

Anyway, I tried to hit the sack kinda early last night but that did not work. I spent a while reading my new book. It is an old new book as I heard they have made the book into a movie. Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy, by John le Carre. I remember reading this a long time ago and then one of my golf buddies Tim said they made a movie out of it and it was getting decent reviews. I went home a loaded it on my Kindle. It is a slow start but I like the voice. (That is literary terminology for I can read it easy.)

 

This morning I was up at 4:50 to jump in the shower, wake Jack, get him to practice and then wait for the tickets for our football game to go on sale. I was at the school at 5:54. I waited and waited and cleaned up 143 e-mails, listened to Bloomberg on the satellite radio, and waited and read some more of TTSS on my Kindle, then read some of the Financial Times on my Kindle, and at 7:15 went to the athletic building where the tickets would be on sale. I was the 4th person in line. Last week there was about 50 people.

 

I had a feeling that with general admission unassigned seating that the early worm was just going to get cold, dirty and hungry.

 

earky worm

That was the case. I did not have to be there at 6:00am. Well I got my e-mails done and caught up on some reading. The good news was no dogs exploded this morning.

 

After arriving at the office and slurping down a bit of coffee, I attended a great meeting of folk on our executive steering committee meeting. This is where key execs from all over the world centralize ideas, product concepts, and strategies as they apply to our strategic planning function. Then we as a steering committee review the recommendations, commit resources, and set priorities accordingly. Today's meeting went extremely well as there were very few distractions and noting but good builds on programs we already have in place. It was about two hours, but worth the time.

 

It was on the way to lunch when I saw a beautiful dusting of snow on the mountains above our home. It was really nice. Made me long for Utah. Then I had lunch at yah, you guessed it Hanna's. I owe Marykate and her family dinner there as we challenged each other to dinner there over the SMCHS vs Mission Viejo Football game. (I remembered MKM, Devin and I are working on a date.) I was bad and had a sloppy sandwich, but its rainy and overcast and needed some comfort food. Good stuff.

 

We made it back in time to close the market. But more about that later.

 

After a busy afternoon, I headed home and we got lazy and ordered some pizza and wings. After that, Devin had a little photo project for me involving horse pictures e-mails, down sizing huge photo files, and Christmas cards. It took about 2 hours. Then it was a little TV and at 11:15, we decided to put this beast to bed. So what happen in the market today?

 

 

It seemed like the market was open forever today, but that was only because I was watching for an hour and half before it opened. We opened at 1,249 (the S&P) and finished at 1,225. Remember we told to watch the 1,249 support point. Well it fell through. As we said the market started off happy as a result of good news out of Spain and Germany only to have Moody's say they will review 8 European banks for a possible downgrade. That turned the market south and it stayed sideways from about 7:00 am to 11:00 am. Our stocks and options were goin NOWHERE. Then for some stupid reason, the casino managers must have been expecting something special out of the Fed announcement today and when they did not get it, the market kind of imploded upon itself.

 

This played well for some of the PUT options we had. In fact we backed out of PNRA and NFLX options at some nice profits. The portfolios look really nasty right now and it is troubling, only because these are my friends. I just have to keep reminding myself that these are options and they can get just as good as they have gotten bad. For example the PNRA PUTs were down 11% yesterday and we sold out at a 26% profit today. It finished up 28%.

 

We did research about 4 stocks tonight that are releasing earnings next week to see if we can find any interesting technical plays. Here is a couple for you to research.

 

We have open orders for CALL CONAGRA FOODS$25 EXP 01/21/12 at .80 a contract. We are looking for a nice pop after their earnings next Tuesday. We don't like the technicals for NIK Nike before they report next Tuesday. Everybody is pimping NIK. From Cramer to Bloomberg. Everybody is saying how great they are and how great the quarter is going to be. If that is the case, how ciome the chart is not reflecting that. My guess is the Pit Bosses in the casino know something we don't know. Did you see what happen with Best Buy today. All we heard for two weeks was how great the traffic was in the BBY stores. The stock was creeping up in preparation for a nice earnings beat. What happen? They beat on the topside and missed on the margin as a result of their Black Friday ad campaign. The bought the traffic with advertising and it crunched their margin. In their October 10Q they reported spending 21% more than the previous quarter and implied they would be aggressive in the 4th quarter. We are playing it with a PUT NIKE INC CL B$97.50 EXP 01/21/12 at $4.85 a contract. If they miss or talk down next quarter or next year we could see a quick 30-40%. If everybody is correct, then we will be licking our wounds.

 

What to do in whacky times?

 

In the last week we have received at least 6 e-mails and newsletters and tips about dividend stocks. I know at least 5 of you that play dividends and quite honestly it is a good game to play. Tim, our Bond Guy even sent out a nice piece today about High Yielding Dividend throwing stocks as good investments. If that is a game you want to consider and don't want to do all the homework for each stock, consider a dividend based ETF like DTN. This came to me from my friends at TheStreet.com and their ETF newsletter. Give it a good going over as it might be a mellow way for you to play dividends without all the heartburn.

heartburn

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I feel that change a comin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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