BAGAKOAA; 8 November 2011 How Do You Do It?

Post 532 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsNovember/2011
We Are Suffering From PCSS

 

Yeah when I got home last night Devin was kinda shell shocked (Post Construction Shock Syndrome)as our framing on the new project did not look as expected. After listening to her tell me what our contractor said, she suggested we meet with him first thing this morning.

 

After waking up and swimming, yes I went swimming, and showering and getting Jack to school we had a good meeting with our contractor and we were off to work. Because we got in a little late and Ellen was kind enough to pick up lunch so I could work through lunch.

 

We dealt with some correspondences and some personnel report form issues as Ellen is keeping me on track. We also got updates on PADI's renewal efforts. For those that don't know, PADI is a membership organization and this is the time of year people renew for next year. We have an automated renewal process so the membership has to do very little to renew. Every year this time we (the accounting department and our IT department) cross their fingers and hope that the automatic renewal executes without a hitch. Over the next week about 70,000 PADI members all over the world will be renewed with having to do very little effort. If you could see what goes into the testing of programming, sampling, currency issues behind the scene each year you would be impressed. It is about six months in preparation all without the knowledge of our customers. So far, it again is a graceful swan gliding along the river as no one can see how fast she is kicking under the water.

 swan

We found out Jack's basketball schedule now that football is ending this Thursday. He starts basketball practice on Saturday. Devin had an impromptu meeting with Coach Welch head coach (And coach of the week this week on the NBC affiliate news cast and in the running for CIF coach of the year.) and he had some nice things to say about our boy and how proud he was that Jack had improved his grades first quarter.

How Do You Do It

 

We get asked a lot, where do you get your stuff to write about. We can tell you that is the easy part.

 

Below are subjects lines from e-mails received:

 

Some of the top options experts gathered for the. . .

 

Avoid All Long-Term Fixed Income

 

Whisper Reactors Alert: Priceline.com (PCLN) Tops Whisper

 

FXE: The Only Number That Matters

 

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

 

Market Alert - Credit Suisse First Edition - U.S

 

For traders who want to learn even more

 

It's All Greek To Me - John Mauldin's Outside the Box E-Letter

 

XLF: Banking on a Turn Around?

 

TheStreet Breakout Stocks: ALLT

 

The Mentality You Need To Succeed In The Stock Market

 

Our New Low-Cost Dividend Equity ETF

 

Today's earnings call transcripts

 

Video: Tag Team Big Idea

 

Morning Call: Cashin's Comments, Dividend Ruler Update/UIT, Preparing for Junk Rally & KKR Financial 8.375% "Babies"

 

Trade Set-Ups and Getting Edge on Your Option Trades

 

Swap Out Your Bank Exposure

 

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS -- ESV, SLB

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS -- EMC ESRX

 

Using Put/Call Ratios to Find an Edge

 

X: Calls Mark the Spot

 

TheStreet Breakout Stocks: REN

 

Today's articles on Long & Short Ideas

 

The 20 Trillion Dollar Report;What's After Brigham?

 

RIMM: Short-Term Play

 

Stocks Under $10: LIME, STKL

 

Above are about 25 e-mails all about stocks, options, economics, and investment strategies. Some are quite lengthy such as the one about the earnings call transcripts. There were 34 transcripts attached. What is impressive is this was just a few of the e-mails we received this morning between midnight and 8:00 am. So content is not an issue in finding things to write about. The hard part is choosing what might be relevant for that day.

 

On any given day we could mislead you with all of this garbage. Typically we take a quick peak at the e-mails while listening to Bloomberg on TV and having IBD and the WSJ on the desk. In about 30 minutes we have the fodder we want to use and put in a MS Word draft. Then we go about PADI Business or Home Rebuilding Business and glean any headline news off Bloomberg during the day. Between 12:30 and 1:30 we screen another 20-30 e-mails and add to the blog as necessary. Late in the afternoon as we wrap our day, we put a little time in organizing the blog. If it's a night where I am not running out the door to sleigh dragons for my lovely Queen of Chateau Cronin, I begin writing the blog and make sense of all of the info collected during the day. I check the portfolios and reset stops as necessary and execute trade set ups for the next day if necessary.

 

When we get home and the family time is complete (about 9-9:30), we prepare the final draft of the blog and find relevant art for the post. By that time it is 10-11PM.

 

And Another One Bites The Dust

 

Charles Schwab wrote a very critical critique of our President today. At a advisory group conference in San Francisco, Schwab explained that note everything could be blamed on the current administration, but change at the top is needed.

 

Ben sent the article and I replied, "If you remember I did a hit piece in the blog about the Whitehouse staff pointing out that with the departure of Rahm Emanual and Larry Summers it only left the recently appointed Bill Dailey as the ONLY staffer who had any practical business experience. Obama positioned him as the Chief of Staff and as the voice of corporate America in the White House.

 

Bloomberg broke the story about a week ago and confirmed that Dailey is dropping many of his duties and is not part of the Obama re-election team. I.e., he has been neutered. Look for his resignation very soon. That only leaves on person with ANY practical business experience that has the Presidents ear. That would be Hilary Clinton. As you know she severed on the Executive Risk Management Committee at Walmart and reported to the Board.

 

Interesting."

 

Time To Get In The Game Again

 

No I am not talking about the stock market game. I am talking about GME Gamestop which operates as a retailer of video game products and personal computer (PC) entertainment software. It sells new and used video game hardware; video game software; used video game products; and video game accessories, which primarily consist of controllers, memory cards, and other add-ons, as well as strategy guides, magazines, and trading cards.

 

If you have been a long time patient reader of the blog, you will remember that Jack spotted this stock in July 2009. We both made money on the stock through February 2010. We got out because we both spotted Walmart giving heavy discounts on game platforms and titles sow we took our profits and left. We made most of out money from July to November 2009.

 

This morning as we headed to school Jack said time to buy more Gamestop. We have done our homework and we are liking what we see. At 25 and change the stock seems to have about 5 dollars a share in a safety margin built in. It's fundamental look good. Target prices are in the 30-33 dollar price range. The only flaw in its fundamentals are its Quick Ratio. It measures a companies ability to meet its short term debts. It is calculated by dividing the difference of the companies assets less its inventories by its current liabilities (those things that have to be paid on the next 12 months.) The number is soft but not too worrisome.

 

In doing the homework, the only chink in the armor is what it was in 2010. Walmart could whack the market by giving stuff away. This is why we are going to bet that won't happen. Rather than cherry picking categories like it did in the holiday season of 2009, WMT is choosing a strategy to match any price out there in all categories through out the season with the difference paid in WMT gift cards. Their plan is to get people in the stores first. Kids like to go to Gamestop. (heck there are a lot of kids my age hanging out there.) Today's release of Modern War Fare Call of Duty 3 is a monster hit. ATVI was up 2% and many of the other big title houses enjoyed the bump. GME was up but not 2%. (Rumor has it there will be 6 million units sold today.)

 

We will try and get in between $25.50-$25.75 and look for a ride up to 30 in six months. That would be a 16% bump or 32% annualized. Please so your homework.

 

Today's pin action was driven by the financial sector if you can imagine that. We continued upward and volumes was a little higher than yesterday but still not a vote of conviction. The Italian PM is a short timer as we reported here yesterday and for some reason that escapes me, that was good for the market. As you know we suggested the Greek PM would be leaving today and the market would take a one point hit. Nope. The VIX dropped below 30 and that could indicate a buying opportunity. If we could see a 25 on the VIX we will be buying some 60-90 call options as the "fit has not hit the shan" yet in Europe and everyone is forgetting we only have a few more weeks before our debt issue raises its UGLY head. The Super Committee in Washington has accomplished, what's the word, NOTHING. That is a recipe for a VIX at or near 40-45 again.

 

In closing, I'd like to acknowledge a regular reader. Sharon D and friend and co-worker and PADI's CIO has a cool blog I wanted to pimp. In her own words, "www.survey-of-one.com - some technology stuff, some sports stuff, but just stuff on my mind." She is brave enough to list her sources. We don't want you knowing where we steal our stuff from. Nice Blog Sharon.

 

Find time to practice stillness and calm. Today I took about 3 minutes just to watch the steam come off the pool and rise high enough to cool the liquid vapor and disappear. It was probably the most relaxing 3 minutes of my day. Livin' The Now.

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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