BAGAKOAA; 16 October 2011 There Are Only Three Loads 

Post 521 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsOctober/2011
 

This weekend was great. Friday we went and watched our son's team get there butts kicked by Mater Dei High School. OUCH. Devin was not happy. Not because they lost but Man Child did not get much playing time.

 

Douglas N. from the UK was out a couple of weeks ago and came to watch Jack's team play. Jack did not play much in the first half and Douglas could tell Devin was not very happy. Devin is very subtle about her emotions in public so it was very astute of Douglas to pick up on the nuances of her anger.

 

Douglas asked me to explain again what was bothering Devin as he did not hear it at first over the sound of the aluminum bleachers being torn apart and the cement footings for the stadium being pulled out of the ground and thrown towards the field.

 

While Devin was pushing the 5 man practice sled through the entrance of the athletic building, Douglas mad a profound observation. Jack was hanging with all his mates, dressed up like a Football Player enjoying all the notoriety of a play and gathering the attention of the young ladies in school, and is safe on the sidelines. What is wrong with that?

 

Ya see Devin has the killer competitive gene. Life is not about sittin on the sidelines for Devin.

 

Friday, after the game or it might have been Thursday I got home and I had some conflicting priorities so I asked Man Child to check the back yard to how bad the dog gunker situation was. After I got my chores done, I asked Jack haw was the back yard and he said, "Not bad there were only three loads." Now I almost walked away, but thought . . . No I better ask. "Jack you did pick up the three loads right?" The look I got was one of absolute surprise as that thought had never entered his mind. He literally went out and counted the loads to report back to me. Gotta Love It.

 

We mentioned we had a nice night at Coto De Caza Friday night, and we followed it up with breakfast with the golf guys Saturday Morning. It was a great group, as the usual victims were there Tim, Russ, Mike, Tom and we were almost saying goodbye to Ben who heads toward Pickens South Carolina in a week and a new member to join the team of great guys at breakfast. It has been a while since we had seven guys at breakfast. Most of us ordered the poached eggs and breakfast took 35 minutes to get. We found out they only have one egg poacher? I'll pick one up for them next time I go to William Sanoma.

 

Then it was back to the house and Devin was doing a bunch of house cleaning and I was helping man child with homework. Devin went and picked up Subway. I was so tired I did not drink. I actually had water. We caught an episode of Bluebloods and I read a chapter in O'Neil's Book How To Make Money In Stocks. Then we hit the sack early.

 

Today, we went and stimulated the economy by shopping for some dresses and some kitchen ware. Our Pannini maker was lost in the flood and we really were in the market for a new egg poacher. In the mall I noted it was quiet (Except for the Apple store which actually had a line?)

 

When we got home it was back to the books and Man Child took 100% on a religion test he studied for all weekend. Tonight we picked up some quick Italian from San G's. Then it was blog time.

We Are In A Confirmed Uptrend

 

We know we told you that last week, but we need to reassure our self. I had a chance to read Barron's and the Journal cover to cover Saturday morning waiting for the gang. The mood in Barron's is very positive if fleeting. Every positive comment was followed by a disclaimer. Few think this uptrend will last.

 

In Barron's Vito Racanelli cites short covering and computer trading the source of the rally. We discussed short covering last week. Most of the articles said it would not take much to end this little hot streak. That is why I was surprised that the plot to take out the Saudi emissary by Iran did not put the fear of God into Mr. Market. Now "What" may you say does that have anything to do with the market. Think back about 7 months ago when the social unrest hit Libya and the oil supply got knocked off line and oil went up 17-20%. Libya delivers 1.2 billion barrels of oil a day, a small amount based upon a world demand of 82 billion barrels a day. (Did you know the US military is the largest consumer of oil products in the world? It cost about $422.00 a gallon to get a gallon of fuel delivered to a battle field.) Now if Saudi experiences social unrest or war, they deliver about 9.2 billion barrels a day. What do you think would happen to Brent crude on that day? 50% a double maybe? Hope you are all thinking about some oil stocks. We are long XOM, TRP, and SSN. We are looking to add to these positions and searching for others.

 

Vito was also tipping his hand to a nice Canadian Bank BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia, together with its subsidiaries, offers various personal, commercial, corporate, and investment banking services in Canada and internationally. We will be doing homework to confirm Vito's comments, but it looks very tempting.

 

Take a look at TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. provides radio frequency (RF) solutions and technology for communications, defense, and aerospace companies worldwide. This was mentioned positively in Barron's and The JOURNAL. We have not done our homework yet and we DO NOT own the stock, but their chips are popping up in the new Apple iPhones. Keep an eye on this 7.00 stock. More to come.

 

Neil Martin did a great piece which has me doing some homework on NEE NextEra Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electric energy in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2010, NextEra Energy had approximately 43,000 mega watts of generating capacity. The company involves in the generation of renewable energy from wind and solar projects. It also generates electricity through natural gas, nuclear, oil and coal, and hydro power plants. The company serves approximately 8.7 million people through approximately 4.5 million customer accounts in the east and lower west coasts of Florida. In addition, it leases wholesale fiber-optic network capacity and dark fiber to telephone, wireless carriers, Internet, and other telecommunications companies. The company was formerly known as FPL Group, Inc. and changed its name to NextEra Energy, Inc. in May 2010. NextEra Energy, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Juno Beach, Florida.

 

Martin's article paints a beautiful picture, but we want to back it up with some bone digging. Give us a couple of days and we'll tell you if we pull the trigger. Do your homework.

 

I know a few of you like to play the ship builders, we made out nice with Knights Bridge last year. Uhlfelder did a decent piece on one called Seaspan which trades as SSW. WE DO NOT own.

 

Why WY Again

 

One of regular readers Bob H. picked up on the fact that we are back into WY Weyhauser. Bob got me thinking about this stock during Tornado Season. We did a little bit of ambulance chasing AFTER we did our homework. We bought in at what looked like a nice entry point of $22 .00 in May. We bought in 7 little chunks and on last big chunk in June. Our last buy was at $17.30. Ironically if I was following my own rules, 17.60 would have been my selling point. (8% off the entry point of $22.00) Instead of selling I stopped buying. This latest correction came on July 21, I believer we called it a bit earlier, but I can't find the day. We bailed out of WY on October 3, 2011 with a 22.5% loss. Ouch!

 

With the market entering a confirmed uptrend and we revisited the financials ad still like everything we saw with a nice entry point of $15.00. In looking at the chart tonight, perhaps that was a lucky early entry as the 16.50 range looks a lot prettier. Regardless we picked up some for various portfolios as a nice value dividend play.

 

To answer Bob's question why are we back in? Just because you take a hit on the stock, it does not make it a bad stock. In this case we did not follow our own rules, the market turned against us, but the underlying value is still there. We had to wait for the market to turn and find a new entry point so we did. The salve Lucrum portfolio is holding an April 20.00 call position which we picked up at .87 a share. If WY is near 21 by next Aprils this will be a good play. We went for an out of the money far out call because we did not have the cash to get the long position we want. Our intent is to convert the calls to a long position after the first of the year.

 

We will get back to you about the week ahead and earnings calls tomorrow. We have an early start tomorrow for a special event we HOPE we can tell you about tomorrow. Sorry no pictures tonight.

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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