Where are the edges to the puzzle?

We only have about 5 relevant data points this coming week. We are talking about a 750 piece puzzle and only having 5 pieces does not help. That means we have to rely on spontaneous news out of Europe to drive the market this week.

We know a few of you are sitting there saying Cronin, not so fast. You sucked last week at your prognostications. Yes it is true the market did not do what we expected. We were not off the data points to badly, but Mr. Market was dancing the tune of far away lands and not watching his own back yard.

Real quick, here are the 5 data points to keep an eye on.

Monday we have the housing market index. Don't look for any great news, but that inclination has been built into the market. Look for the fact that what we thought was going to be a global liquidity package for the Eurozone (As late a 4 PM PST Friday) has been rejected. Finland even indicated to leave the EU if the bank continued to bail out their weaker partners. So we expect a very weak opening tomorrow. Adding to this will some people taking a gain after the 5 days of wins last week.

Tuesday we should see a soft housing starts report, but again that is assumed so Mr. Market should not swing wildly. Look for the VIX to settle in below 30 which, despite everything might lure some investors back in the market. Of course all eye will be on Europe.

Wednesday we have existing home sales and again a soft number of 4.75 million is baked into the market. If we drop below 4.6 Mr. Market could get out the cheap scotch and drop down on the cold marble floor. Our guess is we will be close to the 4.75. We don't expect the fed to change the prime on Wednesday, but there are some who say we might see a quarter point bump. That will knock the market back a bit.

Thursday we have leading economic indicators reporting. A drop to 0 is expected and we are thinking the news might be brighter than that. (We are seeing some promising shipping, rail, and truck tonnage numbers that indicate something is moving out there.) Of course we have initial jobless claims number and it needs to improve a bit or Mr. Market might remember how bad last weeks number is and fall down the marble stairs.

For a wrap, this week will be flat and possibly up a tad. Watch the VIX as that will tell you what the big money is thinking about. Keep an eye on your core holdings and look for opportunities to ad to your positions. Gold should creep up a bit as the market percolates and there is not solutions in Europe, but watch for another margin call to set it back.

Salve Lucrum