BAGAKOAA; 24 August 2011 Close But No Golden Cigar

Post 49 CLICK HERE To See Past PostsAugust/2011

edison

A very quiet day today in Cronin Land. Man Child had his high school orientation today. I don't remember having a high school orientation. Maybe I did, but I don't recall. It was a new high school in Huntington Beach, CA. There were surfers, jocks, and guys who liked to work on their cars. They actually had a label for the car guys but if I used it I would be rightfully sued for saying it.

 smokin

I remember the strange weather conditions in the bathroom at Edison. It was always cloudy. I believe they were doing some kind of second hand smoke research in those bathrooms. I remember thinking about football as a sport and the explanation of training and hell week made me the tennis player I eventually became. I can recall there was a math teacher who had really short cropped hair and some of my friends called him Mr. Onion Head. We were enjoying lunch one day and the teacher cut through the bowl area and I said high Mr. Onionhead. I swear I thought that was his name.

 

Then there was the time when I was in photography with my buddy Ben. It was the week that The Exorcists (1973) was in theaters.

linda blair

I was one of the weirdos who busted up laughing when Linda Blair spun her head and spewed pea soup across the room while uttering something about some one sewing socks in hell? Anyway, the photo class was in the dark room making black and white prints (Jack I will explain later as this was in a pre digital world.) and for kicks I started to murmur "Karras Your Mother Sews Socks In Hell.", to which one of our cheerleaders screamed and ran out both doors of the dark room exposing a lot of film and photo paper. Mr. Shearn did not appreciate.

 

Anyway it was interesting to watch Devin in detail go through the orientation schedule with Jack. When she was done, she asked jack if he had any questions and he looked at the schedule and said, "So I have 15 minutes to get ready for football practice?" Focus son, focus.

 

On the way to work this morning, I discovered a problem. The gang at Brugger's Bagels sees my car and automatically starts my usual bagel. A rosemary olive oil with spinach cheddar egg with chipotle sauce. By the time I walk in, even when there is a line, they have my sandwhich ready and I go behind the counter and get my own coffee. Here is the problem. I can never change my breakfast and if I just want a cup of coffee, I have to go somewhere else even though I have paid for a years worth of coffee. Such problems.

 

Devin went to dinner at our local Mexican whole in the wall place tonight with some of the barn ladies. That may not seem like a flattering label, but these are a group of fine lookin ladies who hang around the stables and call themselves the girls from the barn. The cowboys at Rose's Cantina I am sure enjoyed the scenery.

 

gold cigar 

Gold imploded today as we suggested even though we said it would happen after hitting 2,000 an ounce. In trying to figure out why, we have to go to the commodities exchange in China and you would find out there was a margin call in China while we all slept last night. Gold came out of the box this morning down 40 dollars. It rode all the way down 100 dollars an ounce. After the close today the CCE in Chicago Followed China's lead and raised the margin call for Gold. Knowing this we can expect a further and probably significant erosion tomorrow. Our managed portfolios today missed the stop order by 31 cents on our long GLD positions. We expect them to execute first thing in the morning. Our GLD PUTs are up 62.3% up and should explode tomorrow. Our intent is to let the stops execute and look for at least a double on The PUTs.

 

In other portfolio action today we sold out of our GS call options we bough Monday afternoon at $15.15. We bought then at 13.00 resulting in a nice 16.5% return after two days. (Buy on the rumors, sell on the news.)

 

In anticipations of a nasty correction in the market when Bernanke fails to deliver the goods, we bough a PUT on the S&P 500. We bought the September 2011 $115.00 SPY PUT for 3.60 a contract. Now this is a bet against the S&P 500 and the broad market. It has crept up hear the last couple days for reasons that defy logic. A 2-3% downward correction could easily generate a 40-60% return on this put by Friday closing.

 

In looking for some off the radar energy plays we found and likes of CLR Continental Resources, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas primarily in the north, south, and east regions of the United States. Due to cash restraints, we are buying call options on the equity. We chose a March 2012 $60 dollar call contract and got those for $3.60 a contract. We think the target prices in the 75 dollar range are conservative. We base that upon the social unrest in MENA (Middle East North Africa). Except for Saudi Arabia (who have been buying love with billions of oil dollars) Tunisia, Libya (which may becoming on line and the weak link in my logic), Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Iran are powder kegs waiting to erupt further and threaten middle east oil flows. That makes a profitable local oil and nat gas explorer very attractive over the next 12-24 months. The stock closed today at $51.94 a share. We will be looking at 60.00 for the equity and then we will consider converting the options to a long position assuming we have the cash.


 

Great Minds Think A Like

 

(We are embarrassed to say we just finished watching Today's episode of Mad Money with my buddy Jim Cramer. I swear I had done the CLR trade before seeing this episode. If anyone does not believe me here is the actual trade stamp for the trade at 12:54 EST.

clr trade

That is more than three hours before Mad Maney. Great minds think a like. Cramer likes the stock. Was at HQ and interviewed The CEO. We can't homework like that, but it reassuring to know we probably had a nice pick.)

 

Along that energy scheme, we also gambled on and this is very speculative, SSN Samson Oil & Gas Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in the United States. We bought our long position at $2.33 a share. We are looking for a double by Q1 2012.

 

In other action, we have put stop orders on all portfolios holding AAPL as Jobs announced his stepping down as CEO. After hours we are seeing a 4.5% drop and expect a lot worse. We want to get everyone out with the little gain we just created over the last week or so and then wait for the drop and get back in maybe next week at what will be lower prices. Jobs is an amazing CEO, but Cook is very capable and he will really have to screw up a lot of things to impact the company long term. The trick will be to catch this knife as it falls.  

 

Salve Lucrum  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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