I have wasted about as much time as I possibly can.  It's not that I'm sittin' on the dock of the bay, wastin' time, it just a lot of things to do, but I know we have a lot to cover in the post today. 

In our wild and crazy personal life, we had a great barbeque at our good friend's house.  (And readers, well at least the wife is the husband is not.)  Great steak, good wine, good friends, great dessert and home by a reasonable hour.  Thanks Dan and Linda. 

Today we slept in and celebrated the Fourth of July by breaking in the new griddle in the huge Viking Range.  It took a while to burn off the engine oils and solvents, but we got it nice and hot and I'll be a son of a gun, it worked.  We had French toast and I cooked one egg just to try it out.  It is great.  Wife person wants the griddle spotless after each use so I can see long discussions about "seasoning" a griddle headed our way. 

Of course I had to run to the store as we are slowly building our arsenal of condiments as we grow back into our house.  Ran into another reader at the store, Happy 4^th Rudy, he had been working out as he was covered in sweat looking energetic.  I still had sleepers in my eyes.  Oh well.!

My energy kicked in after breakfast and I was ready to take on the rest of the post carpeting reorganization in the house.  But as we said in the Murphy's Law post we had to do something else first.  We got all the paperwork together for Man Child's physical so he can play basketball and football this year.  We bought him cleats and a mouth guard this weekend so this is getting real.  Got the paperwork done, then went out on the deck and found the perfect item to begin my contribution to the post carpet move in.

A couple of weeks ago, Devin found something at Target which we did not already own.  (Imagine that.)  It was a behind the toilette tower.  It really did not look too bad and was well made.  I think I even posted about Devin and I building it without increasing our cursing lexicon.  Anyway they removed it so they could paint the bathroom.  It was on the deck so I ASSUMED it needed to go back.  I got a screwdriver (Don't try this at home kids.)  and, took it apart, put it in place and put it back together.  I was quite proud of myself as usually when my head is that close to a toilette I am sweating for another reason entirely.  When done, I was quite pleased with myself.

I put a few more things away while Devin was spending quality time with her horses who she has neglected for the last 6 months.  After helping put a bunch of groceries away I announced I had restored the master bathroom toilette to its glory and had the tower back in place.  She looked at me a shook her head.  The reason the painter did not put it back was because she did not like it.  Can't loose for winning.

Before starting this profound post, I was gathering 4 days worth of economic data, investment e-mails, and I heard the basketball rap tap tapping on my garage wall.  Man Child had finished a swim and wanted to shoot some hoops.  Coach Devin was out side looking quite hot in her black Nike Shorts and white sports top.  I went out in the 90 degree heat to lend some support.  Jack's percentage was headed up because Coach Devin was working on his loft and arch or should I say redundantly working on his arch and loft.  (Ya see in this case arch and loft are the same so there was no need to include both words, but I digress and got off topic.)  Anyhow his percentage was headed in the right direction and I offered to provide a bit of defense to make the drill seem a little more real.  Jack came at me and as a few of the readers know, this pudgy little body is more solid than it looks.  So Jack approached and I blocked and he went about his merry way.  Coach Devin was not happy with Man Childs aggressiveness and offered to demonstrate the correct approach for under the basket.  I stood their causally providing some basic defense when this sexy little woman came at me a took out my left hip like a 1934 Dodge Pick Up Truck.  Now I have 100 pounds on Devin but still stumbled to the garage door to get my balance while Man Child nearly died laughing.  There are some sadistical tendencies in this boy.  

We hope your Fourth was tremendous regardless of what country in the world you are living.  Despite of all of our craziness and the parliament of whores running our county, it is a great country that allows idiots like me produce drivel like this.  To those who have served our nation for freedoms like this, Thanks.

Well you didn't give me a mountain, but there is a lot to cover.  The week in review, the Barron's Review, the week ahead, the establishment of a new portfolio, the Cronin Charity Stock Contest, what 30% of your portfolio to sell, Greece update, debt ceiling update, and maybe a pick of the day.  Sorry readers it gonna be a long one and I am sober.

As we mentioned yesterday we were way off on many of our guesses this week but truly errant on our guess for the market.  We suggested a Dow that was going to be down about .5% to 11,874 and an ever sharper drop for the S & P 500 to 1,258.  As you know the Dow finished at 12,582 a 5.43% increase from last week.  The S & P 500 finished at 1,339 a 5.61% increase.  Occasionally in life it feels good to be wrong.  Not like the time I assumed one of my coworkers in Michigan was pregnant, or that I had enough cash to buy drinks and hotel fees in Mexico, or the time I took an account to Gene and Georghetti's in Chicago and assumed they took credit cards.  This time I am ok with being wrong.

Why were we so far off?  Well that is a more difficult question.  The Greece sovereign debt issue got a 90 day reprieve I guess.  After reading as much as I care to zzzzzzz, it appears as though the latest installment of this bailout takes the heat off for about 3 months though there are bond holders who will not be paid interest.  (I always thought that was the definition of a default.)  We had some fairly positive economic data points which helped the market.  Oil dropped enough to make people feel a bit more positive.  There is still no resolution to the debt ceiling crisis and that is not something you want to run down to the wire.  China (although this did not get much airplay) is loosening some of its economic purse string by allowing banks a slight reduction in capital reserve requirements.  (Think of it as a quarter basis point drop in the interest rates.) 

Some of the regulatory big bad monsters under the bed are now definable, so the banking sector help drive the market upwards this week.  Personally we thinkest the market was over reacting to the upside.

There was an interesting article in Barron's this week by Mike Hogan in the Electronic Investor segment about websites that provide investors litmus for market emotions.  One of them we are very aware of and that would be AAII.com.  The metric Hogan referred to is the sentiment swing from bullishness to bearishness or optimism to  pessimism.  As a member if AAII, I actually participate in the monthly survey where the data is drawn from.  Some 60,000 investors submit their monthly feel for the market.  Now let me make this clear.  Participants come from all walks of like.  They can be high end intelligent experienced investors or dorks like me.

Hogan points out that last month less than 25% of the participants had a bullish out look on the market (I voted neutral).  That is a very low number.  So you might say this is a good time to sell and get out of the market.  Wrong!  Fund managers read the survey, just the opposite.  They take a contrarian view and say when the retail investors have such negative sentiment, it is time to start shopping.  My guess is the shopping started last week.  On top of the higher prices, we are starting to see a gradual increase in volume.  A good sign.  Other directional cues in Hogan's article support the distinct possibility we might see the IBD market call shift from correction to something a bit more positive in the next few days.

In keeping the pages of Barron's open let take a quick read though this week's issue.

The cover story is spot on in our opinion.  150 dollar oil is not only possible, but probable.  The global economy will continue to expand, be it slowly and our demand for the black gooyie stuff will not abate.  There are NO LOGICAL SHORT TERM Alternatives.  Nat Gas is about a close as we can come up with and there are too many political interests keeping that from evolving as it probably should. 

Gene Epstein, one of my favorite pens in the Magazine does a great job of laying out the case for $150.00 oil (or higher) by next spring.  It is a long article and lots of details, but if you want to know why it is taking $120.00 to fill your SUV next March, you might want to read this bag of words. 

From an investment stand point, the article opens up a cornucopia of future possibilities.  The obvious commodity plays, the even more obvious energy plays, the suppliers to the industry sectors, the contrarian plays when the prices hurt the airline industry which will hurt the tourist sector which will hurt the hotelier industry and so forth.  The article is worth the price of admission.

But to quote Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous Robin Leach, "That's Not All."

Andrew Bary does a great and long overdue piece on expiring pharm patents and likely outcomes.  If your portfolio is on drugs or needs to be, the piece is great.  OK hint here, but please get this issue because it is great.  NVS, GSK, and TEVA.  We have owned and done well with GSK and NVS is on our watch list.  BTW, the last time Barron's did a piece on pharms the recommendations are up 23%, beating the sector and the market.  DO YOUR HOMWORK.

In other articles Chrstipher Williams lays out a defensive caution about UA Under Amour.  Could it be too pricey, you do the homework and read the article.  For value shoppers there is a great fund report for a fund called Westport Capital which looks for good companies with bad news.  There are some decent opportunities there.  Abelson's column this week was ok.  He says, and I agree that the rally of last week was probably a bounce and not a sustainable rally.  He also rains on gold a bit, which in a couple ways contradicts the not a rally but a bounce idea.  For you dividend hounds (pay attention Hutch) Shirley Lazo does a great job covering GIS General Mills.  (WE ARE LONG in a couple of portfolios.)

This is a week where we can recommend Larry Crowne the movie and Barron's the Magazine.  Grab one you'll be glad you did.

Ok, let's take a look at the week ahead.

If were to plan a vacation and be as disruptive as possible to managing a portfolio, this could be the week.  It is the lees and dredge of earnings seasons this week.  So slow and boring that we won't even take a shot at the dozen or so names reporting this week.  Ok, you know me better than that.  Thursday we have WDFC which you know as WD-40.  They are expected to hit 53 cents a share, down a penny from last year.  We see a miss coming their way.  A review by Motley Fool a few weeks ago indicated an inventory gaining about 23% while revenues were up only 6%.  They are making more than they can sell.  What are your options business people?  I'm waiting?  You either cut production or discount the product.   Typically when you are dealing with finished goods inventory issue, you almost always discount and or promote.  What does that do to your bottom line (aka profit)?  Yeah se are seeing a miss.  Say 48 cents a share.  They have a decent cash flow, at 40.00 a share they are throwing a 2.7% dividend.  A quick glance at the fundamentals suggests that if the miss triggers a sell of, 38 would be a nice price to get in at.  WE DO NOT OWN, Do your homework.

As far as economic data points this week, we only have a couple worth noting.  Factory orders get reported on Tuesday and the consensus is a little bump up to 1.0%.  After the glowing reports from Philly and Chicago of late we are thinking a bigger spike.  1.7% and the Mr. Market will smile.  Look for the market to be up just a hair after some morning profit taking.  Maybe up .25% on the Dow.

Wednesday we have the ISM non-manufacturing report which we think will fair well.  The people in the know are looking for a little drop from a nice report last month to 54 (anything above 50 indicates growth below 50 is contraction).  We are guessing 55, but think it will not impact the market.  Mr. Market will travel sideways.  (The ADP report will come in soft but that too is expected.)   

On Thursday we have the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announce economic strategies.  Everyone (including us) think England will let things remain in misery.  The ECB however is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%.  If it exceeds that amount (a possibility based upon some French and German Comments over the weekend)  Mr. Market will give back some of last weeks rally.  We also have the jobless claim numbers which will improve slightly.  The guess is 420K and we are thinking a bit more positively than that, say 415K.

Friday, many will be waiting for the overall job picture. 110,000 new jobs seems to be the number everyone is expecting.  We need about 300,000 for a sustainable recovery.  We think a pleasant surprise is in order.  Look for 184,000 new jobs and Mr. Market will tack on another winning week.  We will finish the week at 12,770 on the Dow and 1,366 on the S & P 500.