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Feel So Bad, Feel Like A Ball Game On A Rainy Day
It was a hit song for Elvis in 1961 but originally recorded and written by Chuck Willis in 1953, but it could be the theme song for Mr. Market today.
Well I got in the pool and went to put my goggles and they were broken. The strap had broken off. That is no way to start a day! Now I know my lovely wife and man Child were swimming yesterday.
Fortunately I am an easy going guy, so I just found a back up pair and did my thing. Saw the carnage in the market and looked away like someone driving by a car wreck. Then it was off to the bagel shop. It makes sense to me to burn off 300 calories swimming then consume 400. That is how I keep my movie star physique.
Then off to work and chipped away at the to Do List and e-mails. Followed up on some project work (can't tell you-I'd have to kill you.) and addressed a couple of personnel issues. Then we went and took a golf lesson at lunch. It was about 85 degrees and I learned some cool stuff that had me hitting the ball longer and straighter than I ever have before.
After a quick hot dog at the course, I made my way to the doctor to have a ear wax plug removed from one ear in order to better her my lovely wife tell me all the things we need to do to be finished with the house. I know TMI, too much information.
Then it was back in the office and a couple of rounds around the building (yes Ellen I did walk around while you were gone.) to see what was going on.
By five o'clock I was ready to start my blog but then I got a call from Devin, (Which I could now hear perfectly) and was asked to head home and check on the dogs. Devin and Jack were having a mom and son afternoon going to the movies and having dinner.
I grabbed a nice bottle of wine, a 2001 Abreu Cabernet Sauvignon Madrona Ranch and brought it to Hanna's as I was meeting a slightly under the weather buddy (Ben) for dinner. I asked them to open this right away as I wanted at least an hour of breathing.
 | | Our was the 2001 |
I took care of the dogs and got back to Hanna's just in time to see Ben drag his way into the restaurant. Rachel was the manager on Duty and once again they did a spectacular job. Sean fixed a great chicken parm with risotto and broccolini. The wine was really special. I got some fruits like cherries and berries on the nose, some chocolate and smoky meat in the mouth. The specialness of this dark purply pour was how smooth it was. The tannins had settled to where it was easy on the palate. Sorry Ben could not enjoy more of it.
He left a little early as he was not feeling well and I kept the staff entertained until I left. Spent some quality time watching a bio on George Clooney, then at 11:00 STARTED this blog. Life is good but the days are long. |
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Ya see Uncle Ben set things up yesterday (Wednesday) by not saying anything soothing. Now he did not say the sky is falling, but he did not calm a nervous group of investors hedge fund managers and fund managers. (Interesting data point 7.1 Billion was pulled out of equity mutual funds in May and is parked on the side lines. FYI).
So Mr. Market could only react to what was not said by Ben and what was said by the rest of the world. Mr. Trichet said the instability of the Greece bail out bail out (intentional) WILL (not might) impact global banks. Then we had China saying things are starting slow down (Duh, they been tapping the breaks with bank reserve increases for the last 16 months.) Then we had our initial jobless claim numbers and we were on the money with that one, the number stayed way above the 400 K number at 429 K Ouch!. We did not get the double whammy we expected as New Home sales were slightly better than expected, but Mr. Market flinched all the way down at one time 200 points down.
Then the IEA announced dumping of 60 million barrels of oil (Out of the US strategic reserves) in an effort to remind oil speculators that even if OPEC can't increase the flow of oil the IEA can. NOT! 60 million barrels sound like a lot and if it washed up on a beach in Santa Monica, it would be a lot. The world consumes about 80 million barrels a day, so this huge release was used up before about 3:00 this afternoon. It was enough to knock the oil sector to its knees (down about 4% today, hint here buy buy buy)
With commodities down and oil down and Mr. Market having open wounds, we received 43 e-mails and texts between 9:00 AM and 1:00 PM all saying buy buy buy. These were from Thestreet.com, Motely Fool, Barrons, Forbes, seeking alpha, aaii, to name a few. So we should buy buy buy right. Let's be cautious here. Yes if you have a core holding that is going down with the market, by all mean buy some on the dip. Make sure it is one of your core holdings. I am talking about one of you kids. You are going to keep these holdings until its time they are responsible enough to leave. They will annoy you, they will piss you off, they will drive you crazy and because of that you will study them more and find out what make them tick. If you have those kind of stocks sure buy on the weakness. We would not suggest you start a position at the moment unless you have been following the blog and have scrubbed you watch list and found some core investment opportunities. You should have cash right now if you have been tending to your stops properly. You should have stopped out of quite a few stocks. We know we are. So wait a day or so. As Buffet once said, "You have to wait for the tide to go out before you can see who is swimming naked."
We had a couple of earnings calls today, ORCL Orcale surprised us by beating the 71 cents a share and coming it at 75 cents. Despite that Mr. Market dragged this down 4.2%. Look for a bounce back in the next few days. DON'T BET THE FARM. We got CAG, ConAgra wrong as well. They did not beat and missed by a penny. ConAgra is being very aggressive in its pricing and is paying the price in top line numbers. (Fancy speak for they are selling less.) They are trying to buy RAH and private label concern so it makes sense at the moment to keep towards the high end of the pricing spectrum.
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Book Review Alert
I think we had mentioned we are reading Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald and we are enjoying it. We revisited The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets that Go Nowhere (Little Books. Big Profits) by Vitaliy N. Katsenelsonand we do recommend it. I have several copies if you want one, saved from the flood, a good companion to Katsenelson's "Active Value Investing". (Get your order in early Butch.) And after finishing John Mauldin's Endgame: The End of The Debt Cycle it was time for something lighter. I can whole heartedly suggest The King and the Cowboy: Theodore Roosevelt and Edward the Seventh, Secret Partners by David Fromkin. It is the story of Edward the VII "Bertie" and TDR. The book delivers a great bio on both and then the lead up to the Algeciras Conference in 1906 and how they planned to divvy up Europe. If you don't like I'll give you your money back. (Douglas you would love this book. Dave Hanna, I think you would too.)
Salve Lucrum | |
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BAGAKOAA;
I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.
BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages
Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit. |
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