What Is Being A Father?

This question was posed to me this evening by my future son in law, Ryan.  We were enjoying a delicious BBQ dinner of chicken and ribs at home.  After marinating the chicken and ribs in an orange juice, Sweet Baby Ray BBQ sauce and some Crown Royal whiskey (We were out of Jack.) since Saturday Morning, and slow cooking everything for more than one hour, I was taken back by the simple yet provocative question.

I had to think back to a time when Kristin was about 10 days old and my father had made the trip up to Northern California to see his first grand child.  He could only spend the afternoon and then after we dropped him off at the airport, I realized, I was a father.  I was 25 years old.  What the heck was I doing being a father?  It was scary man.

As time moved on, I realized that being a dad was just being there as much as you can.  Even bad times with your kids is better than no time.  When Kristin was an infant I remember making tough decisions like not getting the next release of Canadian Olympic postal stamps in order to buy her something as silly as infant formula.  We also remember digging through the couch looking for quarters in order to go buy some diapers.  But somehow we found away.

Then in 1995 when we were nearing the finish line of getting our daughter self sufficient, and we moved to California to work at PADI, I asked my wife what her aspirations were and she said she wanted a baby. 

Over the past 15 years we had had rabbits, dogs, horses, birds, cats, fish and I just assumed she wanted another pet, so I replied, "A baby what?"  She looked at me with that, "You idiot." Look as only she can, and said "A Baby baby".  With in a year we adapted what we come to know and love as Man Child.  I know I missed a lot in the years Kristin was growing up and again in the first few years of Jack young life.  But being there is still the most important I can do as a dad.

This weekend, as we do in most, we have a family meal as often as possible.  Jack joins Devin and I and whenever possible, so does Kristin.  Though Kristin's appearances are fewer and farther apart, those moments are precious and more valuable than anything money can buy.  What is being a father?  Being there.

The Father's Day Gift

It was a great weekend as I got to spend time with both kids, and three if you throw in the future son in law.  Except for few chores, my greatest gift was the time to watch the US Open and devour this week's Barron's. 

Alan Abelson wrote a semi coherent piece about the debt ceiling mess in Washington, consumer credit, corporate cash holdings, Greecean debt contagion, and he made one of the few yet accurate observations that everyone underrated the impact of the miserable New York and Philly manufacturing reports last week.  He also pints out that commercial banks will have to step up lending post QE II in July or we could see a major reversal of the paltry gains we have seen in the economy. 

Michael Santoli, one of my favs, turned in a relative bullish article referencing some closet journalist know as the mystery broker.  The summary was after the correction we are in, we could see a 10-15% upside by the end of the year.  We are on the record (Jan 2,2011) of predicting a year ending S & P 500 of 1,380 and a Dow of 12,618, which a few weeks ago looked like a cake walk.  In February we described the kind of pull back we are experiencing now.  If my figures are accurate, we will need an 8.5% gain between now and years end the guess to be close.  Mystery Broker sees a 10-15% gain.  We hope he is right 

Tom Sullivan writes a smart article about bonds loosing their luster.  While this might be news, the article is refreshing and relevant.  Summarizing a relatively long article, if you want capital appreciation look for equities and not bonds.

Jim McTague outlines an interesting scenario about the picture perfect debt deal that could come out of Washington and what it would mean to job growth.  If you go back to our blog circa march 2009, you will see were said growth is based upon an improvement to employment and a recovery to the housing market.  We still await.  Good article.  On a side note, it was interesting to hear the details of the White House Golf Outing on Saturday. 

Pulled together by VP Biden (Who we lift our hats off to as he seems to be the force behind the energy to get both sides of the "Parliament of Whores" together to get serious about the debt ceiling issue.), President Obama, House Speaker Boehner, VP Biden, and Ohio Governor Kasich played a round of golf.  Biden apparently set the twosomes and Boehner was squared away with President Obama.  This can't hurt.  In fact they made major progress as Boehner and The President each won one dollar from their opponents and we under the stand the proceeds are going towards the reduction of the 14.2 trillion dollars in debt.  We'll take it.

In a quick article summary, some great annuities to read about,  bullish on Iron Mountain, oil remains volatile for the balance of the year, RIMM is not done bleeding yet, Ford's outlook is hard to buy into, and the world knows the US CAN pay its debt, but some are wondering if it WILL pay its debt.

The Week Ahead.

Ok we called the first up week in six last week.  Will the trend continue?  With only 6 significant data points to figure out we will have to admit China and Europe will be driving the boat this week.  Here is what we think.

Monday, very little economic news happening and no major earnings movers.  That ells me Eurozone fears will make the headlines and some will take profit off the table.  The market will be down less than a half a point tomorrow. 

Tuesday we have two retail sales report which will disappoint but are priced into the market.  We also have existing home sales reporting.  We are going out on a limb here and will say the number will be up.  It is expected to be down from 5.05 million to 4.75.  We think we could have a nice surprise upwards and it is not priced into the market.  Look for a number a hair above 5.05 possible as high as 5.1.  This would give the market a 1% or better jump.  We will also see Walgreens beat estimates of .62 a share, possibly to .65.  Barnes and Noble will miss its miss of minus .91 a share look for a number closer to a buck off.  Adobe will come in close to estimates of .51 a share.  Give it a Penney either way.  Look for a flat market.

Wednesday we have mortgage applications reporting and they will be a bit off, but the market won't care.  Oil inventories report and look for them to be up.  The wild card is the Fed's Meeting announcement and what they say about the wind down of QE II.  Our guess is no hint of a QE III, but a warning about very fragile economy and low interest rates in perpetuity.  In the earnings game, look for Herman Miller to miss its .26 a share.  Watch Fedex as a tell about the economy.  My guess is a beat of the 1.71 expected.  The reason is people are doing more online shopping than ever before.  Bed, Bath, and Beyond will beat the .62 expectation and will have Mr. Market smiling.  Look for Sonic Burgers to beat big.  So if the Fed does not mess thing up look for a half a point up.

Thursday we have the weekly jobless claims and unfortunately we will stay above the magic 400 number again.  Possibly 420.  That is built into the market so anything well over that and it will be ugly.  New home sales are expected to be down to the 300K level and we don't think it will be that good.  If it is below 300 and the jobless claims are over 420, a full point correction is in order.  Oracle reports and will miss the .72 a share by a penny.  Conagra reports and that is a commodity food bell weather.  It is a hard one to guess, but we are thinking a beat of the .48 cents a share.

Friday we have a durable goods order which should recover from the whack it took in April, but the dismal Philly and New York industrial numbers have me wondering.  Everyone is looking for a pop up to 1%, but we are thinking 0.  That will not make for nice Friday.  The last report for the week is GDP and the smart people are saying 1.9 GDP.  We think it read a little softer than that at 1.7 and the Mr. Market will not be happy.

That mean the market will end about 1.5% down from its close on Friday.  So look for 11,824 on the DOW and 1,252 on the S & P 500.  Sorry Boys And Girls.  Let's hope I am wrong.

Salve Lucrum