BAGAKOAA;  16 June 2011 Mrs. Mayflower Was At It Again

Post 446June/2011

 Mrs. Mayflower Was At It Again

 mayflower

Last night (Wednesday) my lovely wife told me that we needed to move furniture in the morning.  Cool, some people jog, some people swim, but lifting tables and chairs has its own unique rewards.  Ya see, we have an electrician coming to check out some wiring issues and while he was there, (BTW this has become a common phrase in our house.  A painter will come to touch something up and, "While they were there. . . .", or the plumber was here to fix the toilette, "And while he was there . . . . . ", or you get the point) we are having him put some replacement ceiling fans in.  Now some of you might ask, "If it was a flood, why are you replacing ceiling fans"? m m m m But I digress.

 

So we awoke and did our morning chores and we moved a coffee table an equestrian storage chest and a big dining room table.  Then we were off to the office.  We had a personnel review, cleaned up some e-mails, and did not look at the market.  At lunch I sneaked out and took a half hour golf lesson which was really helpful for me and we found the game a lot easier after the lesson.  Back to the office and saw the close of the market.

 

Every other Friday we get off.  So Thursday is the day where you make the cognizant decision to get things squared away at your desk or use your down day to get stuff done.  Since I know we have some wrapping up chores to take care of tomorrow at the house we chose to go through the desk and take care of business.  

 

Tomorrow is the last day we have our gymongous garbage dumpster.  We have had it for about 3 weeks now.  I will miss taking the dog feces and hurling them into the big blue monster.  Our neighbors will miss it to as we allowed a communal dumpsite.  I won't miss cleaning up after the grackles every morning.  Ok, they might be crows, but I think Grackle is a cooler name.  They get in this dumpster and really enjoy eating the same type of things I do.  You never see them eating fruit or vegetable, but they love throwing the Taco Bell wrappers all over the lawn.  They can also unwed any fast food wrapper you can throw in there.  Annoying birds.

 

As I mentioned, I had my first golf lesson in a long time.  I was asked to forget everything I knew.  According to Devin, no big feat there.  We started with a clean slate and I must say after about 15 minutes I had a comfortable easy swing.  Yes I was hitting the ball straight and long.  This might actually improve my game as it could not have gotten much worse. 

 

Well that it for Brian banter for the moment.  Let's get in the game.         

 

in the market worried

Our guesses for today were off the mark again.  Housing starts were up and we suggested down (Unless driven by flood and tornado rebuilds-too early to tell yet as the report does not have that much detail.)  Jobless claims were down not up as we suggested.  The Philly report came in looking really ugly which we did not expect.  Numbers were down across all sectors and let me tell you Boys and Girls that does not set things up nicely for the July ISM National report due out in early July.  And RIMM did not have a big miss, they beat the 1.32 by one cent, BUT warned about an earnings adjustment for the balance of the year.  They were trying to kiss and make up to their investors by announcing a sizable stock buy back.  We don't think it will work look for a pull back tomorrow.

 

Speaking of tomorrow, we need a nudge to get the market to where we suggested it would end.  As a reminder, we said 12,101ish for the Dow and 1,277 for the S & P 500.  We need a win tomorrow but feel the Consumer Sentiment report might be a wet blanket.

 

winebago

While we were closing up shop today, I ran across a news piece about WGO Winnebago taking a huge hit today.  It was down almost 20%.  That (like JCP) this week is unusual.  When such a valued brand takes a hit, you got to dig a little.  Sometimes it makes sense and some times it don't. 

 

As you know we work with group of folk on their portfolios.  I decided it was worth a shot.  Here is the note I sent them briefly explaining the situation.  If the market is soft tomorrow you should be able to join us at the 9 or below price.  If I am right it should close above 10 by the end of tomorrow.  DO YOUR HOMEWORK.

 

 "Guys it's been tough trying to make money in this market.  I felt bad about taking a relatively risky move in my account this week on JCP and not including your portfolios.  (I did well.)  I really did think the down side was substantial.  I have found another one today that looks intriguing and is less risky.  

 

WGO, Winnebago reported today and they had a crappy quarter.  The stock was already way down, but today it tripped down another 20%, terribly oversold.

 

If I can catch a $9.00 opening tomorrow morning, I think people who are long term holders of WGO will add to their positions at this level.  Mutual Fund Managers and hedge fund Managers will realize this is a debt free leading brand with an attractive demographic.  I want to play this as a quick grab for about 5-10% in the upside.  I know it's not much, but trying to earn 5% right now is incredibly painful.  My premise is that even if I am wrong, this is a great level to get into a sound stock from a long term perspective as well.  I am going to listen to the earnings call tonight and see if I hear anything that changes my mind.  If not you will all be holding a bit of WGO."

 

We did not listen but read the 10Q and liked what we heard.  That is not to say it was good news, there just were no surprises.   

 

Salve Lucrum  

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

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