It's A Lovely Day In The Neighborhood

It really was.  We actually had kind of a normal day.  We got up and let the 5 dogs out, made the last lunch of the 8^th grade for Man Child, passed on the swim this morning in order to move 34 boxes of stuff out of the garage for contractors that never showed up, got ready for work, had my Cheerios, my tea, and off to work.  

Had a great day at work with a couple of meaningful meetings, a self imposed homework assignment involving international tax considerations.  I enjoyed it because I had to scour about 4 years of annual reports for a large well know internet company.  We stayed on top of our e-mails and picked up man child from tutoring and got home in time to see the almost finished fireplace.  Then it was time to put the boxes back in the garage again.

My buddy and reader Ben came by and took some of used boxes for a future project then joined us for some Pizza Hut and a glass of wine.  Sounds way too normal to me.  You people are going to find the stock and investment stuff a lot more interesting than this.

But I know this place just wait a minute and something exciting will happen.

 Would You Rather Be Right or Wealthy

Ok last night we prognosticated: But for the week ahead, we have The White Hot economy of Canada announcing interest rates tomorrow.  Despite a great economy and strong Loon, look for no change. (GO THAT ONE RIGHT)  If they do bump even by a quarter point it might send our market down a half a point.  More eye will be on the Case-Schiller home price report.  Look for another downward trend, but just a little and that is priced into the market.  (GOT THAT ONE RIGHT)  The Chicago PMI business barometer report tomorrow and look for a drop.  The experts say a drop from 67 to 63.  Look for a number close to 60. (GOT THAT ONE RIGHT, WELL THE NUMBER WAS 56.6))  We also have the Consumer Confidence number out tomorrow.  Some say its up a teeny tiny bit.  We don't see it.  Look for another drop to say 64.5. (GOT THAT ONE RIGHT WELL THE NUMBER WAS 60.8)

  With all of that good news look for the market to adjust down about 1 full point.  GOT THAT ONE WRONG.  The market was up 1.03%.  How could that be? 

Greece is the word.  It may be the word and the rumor of the IMF and Germany easing the pain for Greece sent the market into some kind of Kool Aide Drinking Frenzy.  The market IGNORED all of the pissy economic data and climbed right of the box, heard all the bad news and corrected a bit, shook off all the bad news then close a full point up. 

Now here is our dilemma people.  What are the details of this easing?  I have looked in The Financial Times, The WSJ, Barron's, Google News, and several other respectable sources.  There are no details of the supposed softening of the bailout.  Terms like: "Speculation about further aide to Greece.", and "There's a roadmap to getting Greece through its crisis,", and "as hopes that European officials should be able to work out a new plan to bail out Greece offset disappointing domestic economic data.".  But there are no details.

Please send them to me if you have seen the details anywhere.  It makes no sense at all why the market did what it did.  Now it could be that all the bad news is good news as it will mean there is no evidence the Fed will bump rates as long as there is bad economic news mucking about. 

The Charity Stock Picking Contest Update

Ok on March the first we had almost a dozen people bravely put forward their stock picks for the balance of the year.  Since that day the topsy turvy market has risen a lackluster 1.01%.  (S&P 500)  The leader of the pack currently has a 15.42% return almost tripling their nearest contender.  All but two participants are beating the market and we will just assume it is because of the incredible insight into the market that the SALVE LUCRUM Blog brings them.  We would never disclose the holdings of the first place contestant, but will tell you that, ironically their top performers involve eating, watching tv, and loosing weight.  That combination has never worked for me, but it is working for her.

The average return for our contestants is 3.48%, well above the market average.  You should all be proud.