BAGAKOAA; 15 May 2011 The Getaway

Post 430May/2011

The Getaway

 

Friday the market lifted a bit at the opening in reaction to a strong consumer sentiment report out of the Univ of Michigan's monthly report.  After that it was a ride down about 100 points on the Dow and about 11 points on the S&P 500.  For the week, the Dow was down a point and the S&P did not drop that much.  Voatitlity was all over the place and as a result, option traders made some money last week and had some nice trade set ups for the coming week.

 

We actually locked our self to the desk on Thursday and Friday and cleaned up our messy desk, and created a long action item list.  (I pity my direct reports who probably feel I have fallen off the end of the Earth.  I'm Back.)  It was the most productive two days since last December.

 

We took of Saturday morning for a real quick trip to Utah.  We left at 7:05 am and got into Salt Lake about 10 AM.  Most of the morning was spent returning the home back to normal after our longest absence since we bought the home in 2004.  We had a little mouse issue at the house and I had the pleasure of cleaning several pantries.  It is amazing how those critters can climb up several shelves off the floor.  We had put kinder and gentler mouse traps out when we left, but those little guys actually built little condos out of them making little mouse furniture and I swear the one trap had a small flat screen TV inside of it.

 mouse

After that it was time to get on down the road and spend some quality time Monsignor Moore to determine what role he can and would want to play in our daughter's wedding in September.  He is a great guy with an Irish brogue.  We worked things out and he is looking forward to the wonderful meal at La Caille in Little Cottonwood Canyon.

 la caille

Then after freshening up we made our way to La Caille and had our tasting menu.  Now many of you know me and I have been blessed to have wonderful meal from all over the world.  This was an amazing display of epicurean excess.  We had 5 starters, 3 salads, 5 entrée's and 3 desserts.  The meal was comped,  so we had some nice wine to match to the meal.  We started with a 2005 DuMol Isobel Chardonnay. 

dumol

WOW.  A great nose with florals and citrus.  In the mouth we got apricot, apples, citrus, honey and it was spectacular.  To match the meats and hardier fares we chose a 2007 Château de Beaucastel

Châteauneuf-du-Pape. 

cdp 1

It was spectacular and made me gald I have about 8 bottles left in our stash.  It was dark purple, hot from its still being  bit young.  Fruity chewy and earthy.  It is a classic CdP.

 

Jack and I headed home today after a few more put the house back in order chores.  We get back into the swing tomorrow morning.

Words, Books, Magazines, E-Mails Make it Stop!

 

We finished a book we would like to recommend to you but we can't.  The Financier by Theodore Dreiser is a fiction based upon the flamboyant life of C.T. Yakes, a stock operator in the late 1800s early 1900.  The story does a great job of describing the market of the time period.  Beyond that, the story drags and ends abruptly.  Can not suggest this one.  

 

We are currently reading End Game by Blogger extraordinaire John Mauldin. 

endgame

 If you want to really understand sovereign debt, and the goins on in the Eurozone get the book and sign up for Mauldin's weekly newsletter.  Simultaneously we are reading Ubiquity:Why Catastrophes Happen (mentioned in Endgames) by Mark Buchannan.  And this last week we downloaded the most expensive iPhone App available.  It is the Amazon.com app for the iPhone.  Spending money on Amazon can not be made easier than this.  Based upon my purchases, it recommended a book called The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor (Columbia Business School Publishing) by Howard Marks. 

marks

 Marks is the founder of Oaktree Capital a fund with 80 billion in assets.  I am about 70 pages into the book and can say his approach is simple straight forward but bluntly honest, that is not an easy game to play.  Successful investing (which he defines as beating the market-S&P500) take a lot of homework, a keen insight into "what if", and it is an art more than a science.  We like what he is saying.  We'll let you know if it belongs on your shelf.

 

And while Barron's was waiting for us Saturday Morning as we left for the airport, we did not crack it open until a few minutes ago so the review will be brief, but we reserve the right to tell you more later this week.

 barrons gop

The cover story is about how to figure out which sacrificial lamb, ooopps I mean candidate the GOP can put forth for the Presidential Campaign in 2012.  This article in my opinion was a real waste of ink. I will save you the read:

 

Jeb Bush, come on get real unless he changes his last name?

 

Gov (Indiana) Mitch Daniels, who?  Ok he is smart and has done wonders in Indiana.  Who?

 

Newt Gingrich.  Ok I like the guy only because he writes as many books as I write blogs.  The guy is amazingly prolific and anybody who writes that much must have something to say.

 

Mike Huckabee.  Barron's must not have heard he said no?  Or did he?  He is loved by the evangelical Christians, but thinks a surplus is too much food on the place and that a trade imbalance means we are shipping heavier stuff than the other guy?

Governor Huntsman from Utah.  Great keyboardist, I know I've seen him play? (Ring Of Fire Concert 2009 at BYU stadium)  Hey we haven't had a piano player in the White House since, NIXON.

 

Saran Palin.  Nough said.

Gov (Minnesota)Tim Pawlenty.  He is going to need Pawlenty of exposure to get any name recognition.

 

Mitt Romney realistically one of the stronger candidates.  They say he did a good job in Mass depending upon who you ask.

 

Then you have Donald Trump.  Come on if the congress and senate is still split and totally dysfunctional this guy can't really get is too much trouble and you know it would be a blast.  After all he has been bankrupt 3 times so he has experience for when we default on our debt payments. 

 

You will notice we did not throw Paul Ryan's name in the hat.  Who?  That is the Congressman from Wisconsin that President Obama mentioned by name three times in his state of the budget address.  (Unprecedented I believe.) Ryan's document Path to Prosperity (I still have few copies left if you want one.) got the White House of its Rose Garden to seriously address the 14.2 trillion dollar debt issue as well as our excessive budget.  My gues is Ryan will be pimped by the GOP for the next 3-5 years and then he will be a real contender in 2016.

 

 

 

 

The Week Ahead

 

Now there are only about three of you out of 42 who are still reading this far and I do appreciate it.  Sometimes we get asked at to why we  do this and why we don't take it easy and read or watch basketball, baseball, football, golf or Nascar.  (Ok no on asked me about Nascar.)  Many of you can converse amazingly well about the ERA of this pitcher and the percentage from the field of this player and the like.  I have never made a dime knowing anything about any sport, any team or any player.  I can't say that about the market or the economy.  And I really do enjoy it.  If you pick up something you make a buck with, my job is done.

 

Let pick off Monday.  We have the Empire State (New York) Manufacturing Survey.  Last month the April new order report was strong so we should see another gain in this index.  That creates a problem because a solid number 20 is expected.  ANY shortfall could throw beef to the bears.  We think it will come in at 20.5 and the market will not react too much.  We also have a not too much followed treasury capital flow report which track monies in and out of the US.  The report lags two months so tomorrows report will show March numbers.  Februaries numbers were well below expectations, meaning US purchases of international debt and little international purchasing of US debt.  This will probably continue another month as China has indicated they are cooling their appetite for our debt.  We will also see if the Housing index of the housing industry continues to slide.  We thinnest it will, but the market should handle the bad news.  Look for the market to be down a half a point tomorrow.  Volatility will make option traders a couple of dollars.

 

We will leave you with this shot off our deck in Utah.  Though we only got a couple of minutes to enjoy it this quick trip, it was spectacular.

 

Salve Lucrum

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brian Ireland
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment advisor. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

Tool Box