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Revenues continue to slide; ad forecast indicates long-term decline; CBO Chief criticizes Dem's health proposal
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July 16, 2009
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Free Paper revenues continue to slide as economy worsens
Craig More than 70% of reporting publications indicated that revenues are down more than 1% in the latest AFCP quarterly revenue poll. This compares to 67% in the first quarter, 72% in the fourth quarter 2008 and 58% to 68% in previous quarters.

Hardest hit were the west coast (85%) and Mid-Atlantic (85%) regions with the Northeast reporting improved results. The Southeast continued to show about 70% of reporting publications were down.

The Midwest appears to be weakening as 73% indicated revenue declines. Previously, the Midwest had been much stronger than the rest of the country. The Rocky Mountain States still appear stronger than the rest of the country, but only 11 papers reported in this region.

Community Newspapers seem to be faring slightly better than shoppers during the past two quarters while rural markets appear to be slightly better than suburban ones. Only a few Urban publications reported results which make trends in this area difficult to discern.

While none of this information comes as a surprise, the length of this recession is by far significant. No recession has lasted this long since the Great Depression.

Most publishers I have spoken with have made substantial expense cuts to compensate for revenue shortfalls. Circulation has been cut, staff positions eliminated and pennies pinched at every corner, but one can only go so far.
If you have ideas for expense cuts or revenue growth, post a comment on the AFCP Blog using the link below.

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Ad outlook: Longer, slower recovery
Ad spending Graph Mid-year Magna forecast sees steeper declines

By Toni Fitzgerald
Jul 14, 2009

If there was any hope that the media economy would bottom out during first quarter, coming in the wake of the Wall Street meltdown, that hope has been dashed.

Just-released second-quarter magazine ad page numbers show even steeper losses than in first quarter, and now another new ad spending forecast is out, this from Magna, that says essentially that, yes, second quarter did stink, and full-year 2009 will be worse than anyone had expected.

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CBO Chief Criticizes Democrats' Health Reform Measures
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Director Says Proposed Changes Would Weaken Economy

By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer

Thursday, July 16, 2009; 1:20 PM Instead of saving the federal government from fiscal catastrophe, the health reform measures being drafted by congressional Democrats would worsen an already bleak budget outlook, increasing deficit projections and driving the nation more deeply into debt, the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said this morning.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Budget Committee, CBO director Douglas Elmendorf said bills crafted by House leaders and the Senate health committee do not propose "the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount."

"On the contrary," Elmendorf said, "the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs."

Though President Obama and Democratic leaders have said repeatedly that reining in the skyrocketing growth in spending on government health programs such as Medicaid and Medicare is their top priority, the reform measures put forth so far would not fulfill their pledge to "bend the cost curve" downward, Elmendorf said. Instead, he said, "The curve is being raised."

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Cheers,
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Craig McMullin
Executive Director
AFCP
In This Issue
Free Paper Revenue Survey Results
Ad Outlook
CBO down on Health Plan
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