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Three Important Weeks and Then...?
Failure of the "Super Committee" to reach an agreement is likely to be felt in the short and long term. The current Continuing Resolution, or CR, expires on December 16. Congressional leadership does not want to pass another CR.
Congress is likely to pass a gigantic "omnibus" FY2012 appropriations bill. Included will be bills funding CSBG, LIHEAP, Head Start and Weatherization. The lack of a deficit reduction deal is likely to increase pressure on final FY2012 spending levels. A significant number of House Republicans (upwards of 50%) want deeper cuts in FY2012 spending levels. Passage of a giant omnibus appropriations bill which includes the remaining nine individual appropriations measures will require significant support by House Democrats. Many are currently unhappy with the cuts that are already included in House bills. Appropriations committee staff is deeply involved in conferencing House and Senate bills. CSBG funding is looking good, LIHEAP remains difficult. Weatherization funding is our biggest concern.
A year end agreement to extend unemployment benefits and tax holding is expected to be contentious. We still think a deficit reduction deal is possible before the January 2013 sequestration goes into effect. Both parties expect electoral benefits from their party's "line in the sand" on the Super Committee. Republicans are comfortable on resisting additional taxes. Democrats are comfortable with some revenue increases combined with entitlement reforms. Early indications show that the public is disappointed with everyone.
We predict that 2012 will be one of the most contentious and least productive years for Congress in recent memory. Everything will be about the 2012 elections.
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David Bradley
Executive Director
National Community Action Foundation
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