Almost 20% of homeowners - or 8.3 million people - are "underwater" on their mortgages, owing more than their properties are worth. Another 2.2 million are near that drowning point, known as "negative amortization."

A basic cost-benefit analysis predicts that these people will abandon their homes and accept foreclosure. But there is little data measuring whether that logic holds true. In fact, Eric Johnson, a business professor at Columbia University, believes it doesn't. After years of studying behavioral economics - essentially the economics of choice - he argues that people will simply not make such rational decisions.

"There are two effects that suggest [walk aways] won't happen so easily," he says. "The first is the endowment effect. People tend to value their own house above its market price. Owners don't want to sell at a loss. They have what we call a loss aversion."

The second is that people weigh the importance of immediate outcomes more heavily than long-term effects. Walking away involves upfront expenditures of time, money and effort, while the benefits of walking away are back-loaded.

"People are impatient and weight present costs and benefits more, so they will walk away less often than we might think," Johnson says.

In the following pages are some homeowners who have thought hard about the costs and benefits of walking away from their mortgages. 

My wife, Tara, and I live in Pass Christian, Miss. We began building our `dream home' in mid-2007 in one of the nicer, new subdivisions on the Coast. Halfway through construction, the house appraised for about $835,000.

In June 2008, we moved in and sought a permanent mortgage on the house. We owed $640,000 on the construction and had a loan-to-value ratio (the amount owed versus the value of the house) of 76.6% until the bank's re-appraisal came in at $575,000. This put us underwater. We owe $65,000 more than the house is worth. We seriously considered walking away from the house and letting the bank take it.

But doing this is not in my nature. I borrowed the money. I built the house. I owe the money. As long as I have the means to pay it back, I plan to do so. I believe it is sad that people see an easy way out and simply do not lie in the bed they made. I believe I am a classic case for a walk-away, but what's `right' about doing that? I could have easily walked away and contributed to the economic mess we are currently in. This would have helped my family out financially but it's not the right thing to do.

 

For more personal stories email Kia at kkapci@golyon.com

Article from Les Christie, CNN Money
March 5, 09