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Bottom???
The good news is economists believe the Sacramento area will hit bottom in 2009, which is down from the previously anticipated 2011. The Sacramento area has experienced a 44% decline in value since the height of the market in Aug 2005. Interestingly, San Francisco didn't hit the height of the market until May 2007 and have only lost 27.5% of their value. Looking at the difference between the Sacramento and San Francisco's markets are is precisely why it's difficult to listen to nationwide or even statewide information. Each county and city has its own unique trends. Local Statistics Currently there is a huge amount of activity in Sacramento. Our pending sales are up 10.2% from last month and 190% from 1 year ago. Affordability in California is up 24%. California inventory levels are now at 6.7 months. Anything above 6 months is a buyers market, below 3 months is a sellers market and in between 3&6 months is a neutral market. We're almost in neutral territory. International Buyers Tahoe, San Francisco and Palm Springs are attracting international cash buyers. Buyers in many other parts of the world don't believe in financing homes. They wait to purchase until they can pay cash. They recognize the value here and have negotiating power with cash offers. How Did We Get Here? If we go back to 2000-'01 there were huge interest rate cuts because of the stock market crash. This became very helpful for the real estate market. By the end of 2004 it was apparent we needed to pull the real estate market back into balance. The problem was, it could no longer be controlled by interest rates alone. Underwriting mortgages became so loose with their requirements that people were buying homes they couldn't afford from day 1, regardless of their interest rate increasing in the future. This spiral continued until the height of the market in 2005 when people were scared they were missing the market and if they didn't get in quick they'd never be able to afford a home. These people quickly and easily qualified for a loan, which led them to believe it would be just as easy to refinance before their loans adjusted. We never know the true height (or bottom) of the market until a few months later. What to expect now? Subprime & Alt Arm Loans Resetting Sacramento was one of the first markets to reach the height of the market and one of the fastest to fall. We're also predicted to come out of the downward spiral early. The good news is 40% of subprime loans already reset, with an expected 15% in '09 and possibly 5% in '10. The next wave of possible foreclosures will be when the Alt Arms reset in 2010-2011. The reality is most of these people have already refinanced, sold or lost their home to the bank. 54% of these have already reset with an expectation of 5% in '08, 5% in '09 and 37% in '10 (If the loans are still in place). 2009 Concerns The number 1 concern for 2009 is jumbo financing. Construction loans and jumbo financing are extremely difficult to obtain today. Banks today have become portfolio lenders and we haven't been in this position for 15 years. Investors don't want to buy these mortgages so the banks are getting squished. With few places for mortgage brokers to borrow money in excess of $417,000, the requirements are becoming extremely tight. It's not uncommon to need a 40% down payment, with impeccable credit and a low debt to income ratio and the interest rates are still higher. My advice? If you have been waiting to take advantage of this market and buy that step up luxury home then look aggressively now if you don't want to put 50% down. There are incredible deals right now for homes over $750,000. Suggested Reading... Infectious Greed by Frank Partnoy |
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FOR A FREE MARKET ANALYSIS OF YOUR HOME AND ESTIMATE OF VALUE CALL OR EMAIL ME! I WILL GET YOU THE INFO WITHIN 24 HOURS OF YOUR REQUEST. Please contact me with all of your real estate needs and questions. I am always available to you, your family and friends!
Happy Thanksgiving,
Kia Kapci
Lyon Real Estate
email:
kkapci@golyon.com
phone:
916-782-0558
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