The Technical Analyst Logo  

The publication for trading and investment professionals

 
 
link to training
 
link to events
 
link to awards
 
link to books
 
 

eNewsletter

27 April 2012

 
 
 

RISK OFF FOR Q2 & Q3

   
Ron William, MIG Bank  

With market volatility set to rise, western equities and other risk assets will suffer a significant pullback in Q2 and Q3, according to Ron William, Technical Strategist at MIG Bank in an online presentation for the Technical Analyst (see below).

View the online presentation >

William argues that the end of Q3 or Q4 could present good buying opportunities in these markets. Furthermore, with CHF and Gold looking less like the traditional safe havens we have become used to, and with Euro troubles rumbling away in Spain, William said he expects the USD to benefit, rising a further 10% in trade weighted terms over the next six months.

 
 

Prepare for Gold Collapse

   
  Gold Image

Even though gold’s bull run has stalled, most market views remain broadly bullish for the metal. This can be based on either a fundamental or technical view: the fundamental outlook says that demand from China and emerging markets will continue to support the gold price. The technical view notes that long-term bull markets always end with a “blow-off” when prices go vertical and rise a further 50% or so above the long-term trend. This is then followed by a swift and sharp crash in prices.

Some might argue that the first stage of this technical view has already happened. Among them is Yoni Jacobs who runs a hedge fund in New York, Chart Profit Capital, and is the author of a new book, “Gold Bubble: profiting from gold’s impending collapse” (Wiley, May 2012). He says his view is based on a combination of technical, fundamental and behavioral finance factors. “I take everything into account” he says.

But don’t the underlying fundamentals support the gold price? According to Jacobs, they did in 1999 when the gold bubble first started. Since then prices have been inflated through over-speculation. Moreover, the fundamentals are now priced in and he believes many fundamental forecasts will not actually materialize.

His broad technical outlook for gold is based on a long-term Elliott Wave count. Chart 1 shows the price of gold going back to 1974. According to Jacobs, this shows that gold is now in the advanced stages of a 5th wave advance. This suggests an imminent and sizeable correction. As Jacobs observes, “does this chart look like anything other than parabolic from 2000 until now?” He also notes that since September last year trading volume on down days has had a tendency to spike sharply upwards. This is not mirrored by a corresponding increase in volume on ‘up’ days suggesting a greater market propensity to sell-off rather than to buy when a reason, technical or fundamental, presents itself.

Click on thumbnail below for Chart 1.

Chart 1
 
 

THE TECHNICAL ANALYST
AWARDS 2012

   
TA Awards 2012 Results  

The Technical Analyst was proud to present its 2012 awards to celebrate the best in technical analysis and automated trading. Winners and runners-up were announced at the awards ceremony, which was hosted by Trevor Neil, principal trainer for the Technical Analyst. From over 250 nominations, the judges selected the following finalists, runners up and winners:

Research & Strategy:

BEST EQUITY RESEARCH & STRATEGY
Auerbach Grayson
Aviate Global
Credit Suisse
Lowry Research
Oddo Securities
Redburn Partners
RUNNER-UP: Aviate Global (Riccardo Ronco, Director Technical Analysis Research)
WINNER: Lowry Research (Paul Desmond, President)


BEST FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY
Commerzbank
Credit Suisse
MIG Bank
RBC Capital Markets
SEB
UBS Investment Bank
RUNNER-UP: Commerzbank (Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis)
WINNER: Credit Suisse (Steve Miley, Director, Technical Analysis)


BEST FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY
Credit Suisse
FuturesTechs
Informa Global Markets
RBC Capital Markets
UBS Investment Bank
RUNNER-UP: UBS Investment Bank (Richard Adcock, Head of Fixed Income Technical Strategy)
WINNER: RBC Capital Markets (George Davis, Chief Technical Analyst)


BEST COMMODITIES, ENERGY & POWER RESEARCH & STRATEGY
Credit Suisse
Kase and Company
MIG Bank
Seven Days Ahead
Trading Central
RUNNER-UP: Trading Central (Remy Gaussens, Head of Technical Analysis)
WINNER: Credit Suisse (David Sneddon, Head of Global Technical Analysis)


BEST EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH & STRATEGY
Informa Global Markets
Lowry Research
MTS Research
PKO Securities
RBC Capital Markets
RUNNER-UP: Informa Global Markets (Martin Jones, Chief Technical Analyst)
WINNER: MTS Research (Peter Beuttell, Managing Director)


BEST INDEPENDENT RESEARCH HOUSE
BBSP
DaybyDay
Informa Global Markets
Seven Days Ahead
Trading Central
RUNNER-UP: Informa Global Markets (Martin Jones, Chief Technical Analyst)
WINNER: BBSP (Jean-Charles Gand, Senior Technical Strategist)


BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
Financial Trend Analysis
Finex
JP Morgan
MTS Research
RavenPack
RUNNER-UP: Finex (Andrew Gebhardt, Managing Partner)
WINNER: RavenPack (Peter Hafez, Director of Research)


Products & Software:

BEST SPECIALIST PRODUCT
BorseGo
Kase and Company
Recognia
Sentient Trader
Tradermade International
RUNNER-UP: Recognia
WINNER: Tradermade International


BEST DATA PROVIDER
Activ Financial
Bloomberg
CQG
ICAP
QuantHouse
RUNNER-UP: CQG
WINNER: Bloomberg


BEST AUTOMATED TRADING PRODUCT: EXECUTION
Deltix
FlexTrade Systems
ICAP
Portware
Trading Technologies International
RUNNER-UP: Trading Technologies International
WINNER: Deltix


BEST AUTOMATED TRADING PRODUCT: STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
Deltix
FlexTrade Systems
OneMarketData
QuantHouse
TickCOM
RUNNER-UP: QuantHouse
WINNER: Deltix


BEST NEWS ANALYTICS SOFTWARE
RavenPack
Recognia
Thomson Reuters
RUNNER-UP: RavenPack
WINNER: Thomson Reuters


BEST TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PLATFORM
Bloomberg
CQG
eSignal
Tradermade International
Updata
RUNNER-UP: Updata
WINNER: CQG


Other Awards:

BOOK OF THE YEAR
Behavioural Investment Management (Greg B. Davies & Arnaud de Servigny, McGraw Hill)
Investing with Volume Analysis (Buff Dormeier, FT Press)
Mastering Market Timing (Richard Dickson and Tracy Knudsen, Pearson Education)
Trade Like a Casino (Richard Weissman, Wiley)
RUNNER-UP: Mastering Market Timing (Dickson & Knudsen, Pearson Education)
WINNER: Behavioural Investment Management (Davies & de Servigny, McGraw Hill)


TECHNICAL ANALYST OF THE YEAR
Richard Adcock (UBS Investment Bank)
Peter Beuttell (MTS Research)
George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)
Paul Desmond (Lowry Research)
Jean-Charles Gand (BBSP)
Valerie Gastaldy (DayByDay)
Remy Gaussens (Trading Central)
Andrew Gebhardt (Finex)
Peter Hafez (RavenPack)
Karen Jones (Commerzbank)
Martin Jones (Informa Global Markets
Steve Miley (Credit Suisse)
Riccardo Ronco (Aviate Global)
David Sneddon (Credit Suisse)
Ron William (MIG Bank)
WINNER: Riccardo Ronco (Aviate Global)

Finalists, Runners-Up & Winners >


Judging panel: Ernest Chan (E.P. Chan & Associates), Matthew Clements (Editor, The Technical Analyst), Avi Hooper (Portfolio Manager, Invesco), Trevor Neil (Betagroup & The Technical Analyst), Alain Ruttiens (NEURON sarl), and Rashpal Sohan (Rathbones).

 
 
 
 
  t

News

 
news image

The results are in... The Technical Analyst held its prestigious Awards Ceremony at The Waldorf Hilton Hotel in London on 19 April. Scroll below to see winners and runners-up.

Barclays has launched a new behavioral finance website. The site is part of Barclay’s BF research service offered to clients through its wealth management division and provides regularly updated papers, a blog and market insights. See website.

New research from Essex Business School shows that keyword searches for the largest 30 NYSE stocks on Google have a direct link to market volatility and trading volume, especially during turbulent times. Read the full article.

Apple at the core of S&P rally: Data from Bloomberg shows that a 653% rise in Apple shares since March 2009 has had a distorting impact on the S&P500 even though 458 of the 479 stocks have also risen over that same period. Read the full article.

A team of academics headed by Philipp Krueger at the University of Geneva have found that categorisation bias in stock selection generates mispricing and predictability in stock returns. This, they say, can be exploited by long-short trading strategies to generate risk-adjusted excess returns. Read more >

The continued interest in using social media sentiment to trade stocks was brought to prominence this week by a Fox News TV report. It featured Shoreline Trading, a US trading firm who claim to have enjoyed returns of 27% above the S&P between 2008 and 2010 using a strategy based on quantifying social media sentiment for US stocks. See feature >

Research from Bilkent University in Turkey has found a connection between international football results and stock market returns. They claim that evidence from Spain and the UK suggests losses by the national team leads to lower stock market returns. Read more >

Speed is an important factor in the performance of technical trading rules, according to a research team from Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Testing ETFs listed on the Nasdaq during 2009 the research found that a delay of only 200 milliseconds can have a significant impact on returns. Read more >

 
  t

Booking Now

 
news image

Statistical Arbitrage
May 28 & 29, London > >

Backtesting & Optimization Workshop
May 30 & 31, London > >

Introduction to Technical Analysis
June 12, London > >

Advanced Technical Analysis
June 13 & 14, London > >

Trading Psychology Workshop
June 28 & 29, London > >

Short-Term Trading Workshop
July 11 & 12, London > >

Introduction to Technical Analysis
October 16, London > >

Advanced Technical Analysis
October 17 & 18, London > >

Training Calendar

 
  t

Awards 2012

 
Guests Table Plan

Greg Davies (Barclays Wealth)

Greg Davies (Barclays Wealth)

Rashpal Sohan (Rathbones) & Tracy Knudsen (Lowry Research)

Rashpal Sohan (Rathbones) & Tracy Knudsen (Lowry Research)

Alain Ruttiens (NEURON sarl) & David Sneddon (Credit Suisse)

Alain Ruttiens (NEURON sarl) & David Sneddon (Credit Suisse)

Avi Hooper (Invesco) & George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)

Avi Hooper (Invesco) & George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)

David Sneddon (Credit Suisse) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

David Sneddon (Credit Suisse) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Peter Beuttell & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Peter Beuttell & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Jean-Charles Gand (BBSP)

Jean-Charles Gand (BBSP)

Peter Hafez (RavenPack)

Peter Hafez (RavenPack)

Steve Jarvis (Tradermade International)

Steve Jarvis (Tradermade International)

Guido Riolo (Bloomberg) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Guido Riolo (Bloomberg) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Sebastian Kent (Deltix) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Sebastian Kent (Deltix) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

James Cantarella (Thomson Reuters)

James Cantarella (Thomson Reuters)

Shaun Downey (CQG)

Shaun Downey (CQG)

Greg Davies (Barclays Wealth) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Greg Davies (Barclays Wealth) & Trevor Neil (The Technical Analyst)

Matthew Clements (The Technical Analyst) & Riccardo Ronco (Aviate Global)

Matthew Clements (The Technical Analyst) & Riccardo Ronco (Aviate Global)

George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)

George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)

2012 Awards Ceremony

2012 Awards Ceremony

2012 Awards Ceremony

2012 Awards Ceremony

2012 Awards Ceremony

2012 Awards Ceremony
 
  t

Advertisement

 
IDX 2012 Advert

Further information >

 
 

Forward to a colleague

 
 

Do you know someone who might be interested in receiving this eNewsletter? You can send this on to a colleague using the link at the bottom of the email.

 

 
 
 

T: +44 (0)1483 573150 E: enewsletter@technicalanalyst.co.uk

2012 Global Markets Media Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by an means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of Global Markets Media Limited. While the publisher believes that all information contained in this publication was correct at the time of going to press, they cannot accept liability for any errors or omissions that may appear or loss suffered directly or indirectly by any reader as a result of any advertisement, editorial photographs or other material published in The Technical Analyst eNewsletter. No statement in this publication is to be considered as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to provide investment, tax or legal advice. Readers should be aware that this publication is not intended to replace the need to obtain professional advice in relation to any topic discussed.