As has been announced far and wide, the first of the 78 million baby boomers turned 65 on January 1, 2011. This event signals the beginning of the aging of the American population in earnest. By 2030, there will be twice as many people over age 65 as there are today. The generation born between 1946 and 1964 has been described as a demographic "pig in a python" that is now gradually moving to its final state.

The boomer generation has changed American society in every other life stage it has passed through, so pundits are speculating as to how the boomers will change retirement and old age. Forecasts are as contradictory as is the generation itself.

For example, it is predicted that boomers will work longer than previous generations and continue paying into the Social Security system. Wheras three-quarters of past generations would be retired within a few years of turning 65, it is estimated that only about half of the first boomers will be retired as they approach 70. But most boomers turning 65 are already collecting Social Security. Nearly half of 62-year-olds are choosing early retirement payments, often out of financial necessity.

The level of boomer contentment with their lives is also in dispute. According to an AARP survey, 78 percent of boomers turning 65 in are happy with their lives. But according to Pew Research, fully 80 percent of boomers say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today, and a study by two sociologists found that the suicide rate for middle-aged people, notably baby boomers without college degrees, rose from 1999 to 2005.

There are even wide discrepancies in the media on how quickly boomers will be turning 65. Estimates range from "7,000 baby boomers a day" turning 65 between now and 2030 to "more than 10,000" a day to "every 8 seconds" ( which works out to close to 11,000 a day).

But one thing is undeniable: There is what Anthony Webb, a research economist at the Center for Retirement Research, describes as a "slow-burning" retirement crisis for boomers. Typical boomers are still far short of the retirement savings they will need to maintain their standard of living. The Employee Benefit Research Institute found that even those in their 50s and 60s with a 401(k) for at least six years had an average balance of less than $150,000 at the end of 2009. Many of those 401(k) accounts are invested in a poorly-performing stock market.

Meanwhile, Fidelity Investments' annual study of retiree health care costs reports that a 65-year old couple retiring this year will need a quarter of a million dollars to pay for their future medical expenses -- not including care in a nursing home. And as for that, study after study reveals that most in middle age are failing to plan for the prospect that they may need nursing home or other long-term care.

How will boomers and American society cope over the next two decades? At every other stage, the boomers have transformed society to fit their desires and needs. The question is whether that streak can continue.

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