How we arrived at these results:
We compared the first date you reported "yes" to "leaves" for the 9 deciduous tree species under investigation. Then we compared those dates collected in 2012 to the first "yes" dates reported for the same species in 2011, 2010 and 2009.
When we pooled observations for all species together across the study region, we found that the first leaf dates reported in 2012 were, on average, just as early as in 2010. These dates were, on average, a week earlier than in 2009, and nearly 3 weeks earlier than in 2011.
In two of the four years that we have been collecting data on these species, spring has arrived anomalously early. This suggests:
Very early springs might be occurring more frequently
Will this pattern continue into the future? Only time will tell. Well, that and lots of observations of plant phenology!
What are some implications of such an early spring?
- Longer growing season
- Increased carbon capture and storage
- More insects hatch in a season
- Mistimings in plant-pollinator interactions
- Increased potential for frost damage
- Earlier and different kinds of honey
- More zooplankton productivity in lakes
All of these changes have been attributed to early spring onset. They have rippling effects throughout ecosystems. The long-term effects have yet to be determined.
Your observations of phenology are helping us better understand how our world is changing! Thank you for all the tree data you've shared to date. I look forward to receiving more observations from you in the future.
