Blue Haven Capital
Personalized Investment Management with a Purpose
In This Issue
THE MARKETS
PASSIVE vs ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
LUNCHEON
MUNICIPAL BONDS
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  July/August 2008
Greetings!

Thank you for interest in the Blue Haven Capital newsletter. We welcome your questions and comments and can be reached via email at info@bluehavencapital.com

Question: We know the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 helps homeowners, but what is it providing for investors?

Click here for the answer!
THE MARKETS
Stock index performance (Domestic and International)

Domestic Index Performance Year to Date (8/1/2008):
Dow Jones Industrial Average................-14.22%
Standard & Poor's 500..........................-13.69%
Russell 2000.......................................-6.03%

International Index Performance Year to Date:
MSCI Japan (in $US).............................-9.71%
MSCI Pacific xJapan (in $US).................-15.89%
MSCI Latin America (in $US).................. 1.45%

Month End Interest Rates:
10 year US Treasuries...........................3.99%
10 year AAA rated municipal bonds..........3.79%


PASSIVE vs ACTIVE MANAGEMENT (Part II)
One More Study

In June, we highlighted a study released by Kenneth French from the Tuck School at Dartmouth. The study provided evidence that low cost, passively managed index funds beat a large percentage of the actively managed funds in the mutual fund universe. The conclusion was that low cost diversified exposure to a broad range of equities is the most important determinant of portfolio success. He also concluded that high fees are often the determining factor in a mutual fund's under-performance versus its benchmark. French's findings suggest that the cost savings incurred by low cost index funds is what enables these funds over time to beat a large percentage of actively managed domestic mutual funds.

Another study was released in 2007, and it was recently highlighted by New York Times writer Mark Hulbert in an article on July 13, 2008. This study examines the role of luck in beating the benchmark indices and concludes that over the years from 1975 through 2006, in a study involving any fund with at least 5 years of track record, only 12 (0.6%) of the almost 2100 funds examined showed any real market-beating ability. When the researchers were asked for the cause of this inability to beat the market, the first answer given was "high fees and expenses." In fact, almost 10% of the funds in the study would have beaten the benchmark indices had it not been for their fees and expenses. Now, 10% isn't great, but it is more impressive than 0.6%!

Blue Haven Capital continues to look for new and innovative ways to reduce fees while maintaining exposure to a broad range of equities. We are encouraged by the increase in index funds and index ETFs, and we'll continue to search for products that make economic sense for our clients.
LUNCHEON AT NICHE
Luncheon For Nonprofit Executives and Board Members 

Scott Fintzen, an attorney from the law firm Gaido and Fintzen, spoke at our July luncheon titled "Private Inurement, Private Benefit, and Conflicts of Interest 101."

Attendees included private grant making organizations, civic groups, private family foundations, public board members, and public charities. Scott squeezed almost 6 hours of information into a fast paced 60 minute presentation that everyone found quite enlightening. Questions were raised regarding family members as paid staff for family foundations, board member's businesses bidding for the business of the foundation or organization for which the business owner is a board member, and many other examples of potential conflict
raising situations. A printed copy of the information Scott presented is available from Blue Haven Capital. Please contact us and we can email a pdf to you.

MUNICIPAL BONDS

Taxable Municipals

Taxable municipals are still an oddity in the marketplace. According to Moodys, taxable municipal bonds represent only 6% of the outstanding municipal bonds in the market. As of the 2007 year end, the municipal bond market totaled approximately $2.5 trillion, which implies that there were almost $150 billion worth of taxable municipals in the market.

Although taxable municipals are hard to find, their safety record is admirable, especially versus corporate bonds which are the main alternative investment for fixed income buyers. Historical default rates on taxable municipals are far less than on corporate bonds. In a 30 year study, Moodys found that no AAA rated taxable municipal bond defaulted, while 0.68% of AAA rated corporate bonds defaulted. Moodys found that 0.03% of AA rated taxable municipals defaulted, while 0.80% of AA rated corporate bonds defaulted...and only 0.01% of A rated taxable municipal bonds defaulted while 1.46% of A rated corporate bonds defaulted. In addition, the report showed that at each rating level, taxable municipals tend to yield slightly more than corporate bonds. Lastly, Moodys found that taxable municipals tend to be slightly less volatile than corporate bonds.

As Blue Haven Capital strives to diversify portfolios, where appropriate we will buy select taxable municipal bonds to add an additional level of diversification, safety and stability to the portfolios we manage.

Municipal Housing Bonds

On July 30, 2008, President Bush signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.The bill raises each state's bond cap for housing bonds by over 38%, and it exempts new money housing bonds from being subject to AMT. The purpose of the bill was to give those individuals who got private issuer mortgages a chance to go into a state housing authority mortgage and escape the often predatory mortgages that many subprime lenders issued. Most state housing agencies now offer only 30 year, fixed rate loans whereas many of the subprime loans were interest-only, floating rate, or balloon.

This new supply of non AMT municipal housing bonds should create a nice opportunity for buying in an already attractive area. Yields on non AMT municipal housing bonds are almost 1% higher than on municipal non housing bonds. The state level housing agencies often have very strict lending guidelines, very straight-forward loans, and often the mortgages themselves are backed by the United States government. Since municipal yields are equivalent to, or even higher than, government yields, Blue Haven Capital recommends that all who pay income taxes take a hard look at municipal housing bonds. We like the combination of safety and yield that state level housing agencies provide, and we are eager to see what comes into the market in the coming months.
Blue Haven Capital is a registered investment advisor providing experienced, professional low cost investment management for individuals, private foundations, and public charities. If you know an individual or group who might be interested in our services, please forward this email to them!


 
Best Regards,

Donald Cummings             Bill Moucka
Principal                              Principal


Blue Haven Capital LLC
630.588.3800