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We are certainly having a traditional winter here in Illinois! Lots of snow, and lots of time to contemplate the stock market's performance over the last year or so. As usual, we look for historical precedent- "When did the stock market last act this way?" and "How has the market performed during the period following a dramatic downturn?" The answers may provide some guidance for what to expect in the future.
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THE SLOWING ECONOMY
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Stock market malaise As of this writing, the S&P 500 Index is down 9.50% year to date. A common question these days is "How often does the S&P 500 have a negative year?" We turned to the history books going back to 1926 and found some interesting facts.
The S&P 500 Index has had ten occurrences of single year negative returns since 1926, with returns the following year being anywhere from 5.7% to as high as 52.6%.
The S&P 500 Index has had one occurrence of negative returns two years in a row (1973/1974) and the return the following year was 37.2%.
The S&P 500 Index has had three occurrences of negative returns 3 years in a row (2000/2002, 1939/1941, 1929/1932) and the returns the following years have been at least 20%
Now, as we know, past performance is no guarantee of future results! However, as difficult as the markets are right now, we have been there before and have always done well subsequently. Our recommendation? Diversify across company size, industry, and domestic/international.
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| SUBPRIME LENDING
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What is a subprime lender?
A
subprime mortgage lender is a lending institution which offers
mortgages to those individuals who may not be able to otherwise qualify
for a mortgage. The borrower tends to be higher risk, and therefore the
rate at which the mortgage is made tends to be higher. Many subprime
mortgages have an interest rate adjustment feature. At a certain time,
the mortgage rate will adjust (usually up) and then remain fixed for
the remaining life of the loan. The problems begin when the mortgage
rate is due to rise, and the borrower, who was counting on refinancing
the mortgage because of an assumed increase in housing prices, now
cannot refinance because housing prices have leveled off or even
fallen. At this point, the borrower cannot pay the new, higher mortgage rate
on the home, and the home's ownership transfers to the bank. Banks are
not interested in being homeowners, and the banks often put that home
up for sale immediately. Currently, the combination of falling home
prices and rising mortgage rate adjustments has translated into a
credit nightmare which has spilled over into the general economy,
affecting the stock, bond, and housing markets. Certain lenders are
offering to "freeze" the mortgage payment instead of letting it adjust
higher, which should help some of the borrowers. The other side of the
equation is the investor- often times a city, state, pension/profit
share plan, or individual. That investor purchased a mortgage investment and assumed it would carry a low interest rate for a short period of time and then
a higher interest rate for the balance of its life. When the interest
rate does not adjust up, the investor is left with an investment
worth far less than originally thought. Blue Haven Capital expects to
see continued weakness in the housing market in 2008 despite lower interest rates. We do not recommend investing in the
subprime mortgage market since the instruments themselves are under pressure by the government to hold off on adjusting to higher rates.
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| SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE INVESTING
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Socially Responsible investing: An overview| Socially
Responsible investing incorporates environmental, social, or governance
factors into investment decision making. According to the Social Investment Forum, Socially Responsible Investing now represents over
$2.3 billion dollars invested in the US marketplace. Blue Haven Capital
endeavors to find companies which are 1) good investments, and 2)
support SRI through their use of sustainable business practices,
environmental awareness, fair
wage and labor practices, renewable resource use, or fair trade.
Investments may be made directly through stock
purchases, or investment may be made indirectly through the
purchase of ETFs or mutual funds. There are presently over 300
different mutual funds and ETFs which focus on socially responsible
investing. Blue Haven Capital welcomes the opportunity to work
alongside those investors who are interested in obtaining an above
average return while investing in a socially responsible manner. |
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INDUSTRY STANDARDS IN SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
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Standards and Practices
As
the United States has moved towards greener building techniques, the
need for standards in green building and design has increased. The United States Green Building Council
created the LEED rating system to encourage the "creation and
implementation of universally understood and accepted tools and
performance criteria". The building industry has embraced these
standards and now many builders strive to meet certain objective LEED
criteria in their building projects.
The same standard setting is beginning to happen in the textile industry. A California based group called LEAF Certifications is
attempting to increase consumer awareness of environmentally and
socially conscious textile manufacturers and distributors. By striving
towards certain practices and standards, textile industry organizations
will be able to participate in a multi-tiered certification program
created to help achieve certain standards in the industry. Consumers
will quickly be able to tell which of these standards were achieved by
the manufacturer of the clothing. As awareness of the practice
standards increases, consumer demand for those practices should
likewise increase. |
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MISSION RELATED INVESTING
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Foundations and Mission Related Investing Mission related investing provides an additional way for today's
foundations and charitable organizations to further their mission. If
an organization can grant out 5% of its foundation's assets and make a
genuine difference in a particular area, it stands to reason that by
investing the remaining 95% of the foundation's portfolio in a similar
direction can provide an even greater difference. Foundations and other
charitable groups are now able to support education, literacy,
healthcare, and other mission areas through their investments, thereby multiplying the effect they can have in their mission area. Through Mission Related Investing, not only can private foundations support their mission, but they can make sure that their investment dollars are not at cross purposes with their goals. For more
information on how to increase the impact in your mission area, please
contact us!
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Blue Haven Capital is a registered investment advisor focusing on socially responsible investment management for individuals, private foundations, and public charities. If you know someone who might be interested in our services, please forward this email to them!
Best Regards,
Donald Cummings
Blue Haven Capital LLC
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