The sharp rally in stock prices over the last two months may or may not be the beginning of a new bull market. Many of the global stocks funds that we follow scored the best two month return since their inception.  However, a number of analysts and market technicians have dismissed the surge in prices as too much too soon, and expect the downturn to resume in the near future.  They may be right.

• The US consumer confidence rebounded during April.
• The percentage of consumers who say that jobs are hard to get edged down in April after rising thirteen of the previous fourteen months.
• After more than a year and a half of declines, California's median home price finally managed a gain, rising 2.2% month over month.
• Corning is bringing back some laid off workers on stronger-than-expected demand for glass used in making flat-screen televisions.
• IBM said recently that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 10% and will repurchase an additional $3B of its stock.
• The 4/28 Financial Times reported that the high yield bond market may be starting to open up again. About $7B was raised in April, the highest volume since last July.
• The stock market held up remarkably well despite nervousness over bank stress tests, swine flu, and the forced downsizing of the US auto industry.

Bottomline: Now is the right time to "stress test" your tolerance for risk and rebalance the stock, bond, and cash mix in your retirement portfolio.