The market caught a cold two weeks ago which increased into flu like symptoms last week, and appeared to be on the verge of turning into pneumonia as this week unfolded. The doctor prescribed two good days of market buying and the patient appears to be recovering.
On Monday, the futures window pointed to a weaker open for the Market on the heels of the World Bank announcement cutting its 2009 global growth forecast. The World Bank revised it's March forecast of a 1.7% decline to 2.9% for this year. A spokesperson for the World Bank cited the rise in world-wide unemployment and the belief "that poverty is set to increase in developing economies." Certainly not the kind of news likely to resuscitate an ailing market.
In other news, the Fed released it's "Flow Of Funds Data" report which monitors total borrowing in this country. No surprises as the numbers clearly showed consumer borrowing down to almost insignificant levels, while government debt rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression. One can only wonder when the government will change direction and allow the private sector to resume its traditional role of being the primary borrower and driver of growth in this country?
In yet another report, the total number of world-wide millionaires declined nearly 15% in 2008. With that decline, the Merrill Lynch report declared that the current total number of millionaires is lower today than in 2005. Furthermore, the number of those worth at least $30 million dropped nearly 25%. While the US still boasts the highest number of millionaires clocking in at 2.7 million individuals, China's numbers were the hardest hit with a 61% decline to a total of 364,000. At last count however, this bit of news did absolutely nothing to move the market in any direction, but does give some solace to some of us.
Very little else really happened this week. As has been the pattern of late, the market was down on Monday and Tuesday, but began an upward trend on Wednesday, with Thursday again being the best day of the week. The end result in this reporter's opinion is that the market seems remarkably unwilling to roll over and die just yet. Given the volume of negative economic data regarding unemployment, lack of purchasers of Treasuries, and more and more government borrowing which seemingly is squeezing out private sector borrowing, the market by all accounts should have tumbled. But it hasn't. It would seem that two forces are in a tug-of-war with the general economic news pushing the market down, offset by pent up investor energy itching to get in.
This week at least, investors did just enough buying to move the market away from further declines. With this being the end of the quarter, we will have to wait and see whether this was just institutions jockeying to improve their numbers for the quarter, or whether this is a more fundamentally based upturn?