|
|
|
|
Economic Development and Advocacy for Southwest Alaska
| October 2012 |
|
|
|
|
| Greetings!
Hello, and thanks for reading the latest SWAMC newsletter for members and friends of the region. This month we'll talk a lot about STEM education, our latest climatic cycle, highlight a new SWAMC member, and offer a recap of the summer salmon activity. As always, thanks for reading and keep in touch.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Southwest Region Summer Salmon Recap
 The aggregate salmon returns to the SWAMC region fall within the long-run average range; however on closer analysis, variation in individual systems dictate one's perception of a strong or weak season. As a region, the world's largest wild sockeye fishery in Bristol Bay missed the forecast by a respectable 7%, returning 29 million salmon. All districts made escapement goals, preserving future sustainability, although in general, escapements were on the lower bounds of the escapement range. The 20.5M harvest falls short of the 25.3M 20 year average; Egegik and Nushagak were only about 50% of average. The Naknek-Kvichak systems carried the region, beating forecasts and long term average harvest, with a catch of 9.99M. Nushagak was the only district to substantially miss forecast, coming up 60% short. Arguably, missing forecast can affect fishermen more than the forecast itself, as the expectations drive morale - for good and bad.  The Westside fisheries on Kodiak Island broke out of a multi-year slump that was straining fishermen, especially setnetters who are unable to reasonably transfer districts. Sockeye underperformed forecasts by 20% with a harvest of 2.17M, but not too far off the 10 year average of 2.43M. Pinks were the bright spot for the island, exceeding forecasts by 25%, with a total harvest of 16.62M; leaving room for improvement, the harvest falls short of the 10 year average of 20.53M. One area that fell substantially short was the coho harvest at 183K, 56% of forecast, though, this smaller fishery is of much less value than the pink and sockeye.  Area M, representing the Peninsula and Aleutians, had a rough salmon season. Nelson Lagoon experienced such dramatic returns that the Aleutians East Borough has asked for disaster protection. The harvests of 75K were only 50% of the preseason forecast, and 34% of the 5-year average, and the past three years have not been strong. Personal accounts from the Sand Point fleet report that the early season sockeye catches saved their season from being a total bust, as the season never really got going again after June. In aggregate, if the preseason forecast of 2.3M would have been met, this would have been one of lower harvests since 1978; the 50% interval is in the range of 5M to 7.2M. Unfortunately, the total pink harvest of 489K was only 21% of the 2.3M forecast. The nearly 2M sockeye harvest was 800K less than last year. Further up the line in Chignik, strong sockeye runs continue to surprise, surpassing the strong harvest forecast of 1.68M with an actual harvest of 1.82M sockeye. |
SWAMC's STEM Coordinator Cameron has progressed program development over the past six months. STEM has obvious and observable benefits towards creating good paying jobs right here in the SWAMC region; aerospace engineers, fisheries biologists, robotics designers and operators, environmental and resource scientists, and many more are needed to prepare our region to compete in the 21st century economy. The need for students trained in STEM-related fields, which create secure, high-paying jobs in growing industries that stay in Southwest has never been greater. The education projects we've been developing cover a diverse range of topics, but they all focus on providing students with challenging opportunities that encourage creativity and hands-on problem solving and lay the groundwork for future studies and skilled employment.
The ocean science curriculum is just getting underway in Kodiak, where teachers are planning for class visits to local beaches and students will take samples, identify phytoplankton and analyze for shellfish toxins, providing an important service to their communities while also introducing them to real scientific field and lab work. Two other promising and applicable programs, which are already well established elsewhere in the state, are SeaPerch and Engineering is Elementary. These programs teach students about science and engineering through underwater robotics and design challenges, respectively. Both would be a great fit for Southwest schools, and we are actively pursuing resources to facilitate adaptation and program expansion.
We are also looking to build aerospace and aerodynamics programs by taking advantage of the region's unique assets at the Kodiak Launch Complex. Rocketry camps currently exist throughout the country, but not many students get to launch their model rockets while receiving tutorials from the rocket scientists in the shadows of space capable shuttles. Recognizing the importance of air travel and rural Alaska, we are excited about expanding aerospace education and the possibility of using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in classes and camps; we hear that Anchorage is already deploying UAVs in a hobby capacity. Many STEM industries are in their infancy in Southwest, but by giving our students background and association with real world examples that are just another day in the SWAMC region, we are well placed to advance this burgeoning and promising field.
|
|
Some Numbers Behind STEM Careers
The charts below show how focusing on training and education can have real implications for developing a competitive "next generation" economy. In STEM related fields, unemployment is lower, jobs are on the rise and pay is comparatively high. To see these and other graphs in better detail, visit our STEM Education page.
STEM Jobs Share
STEM Pay Comparison
|
Business Spotlight: VITUS MARINE LLC 
This month we hear from a new SWAMC business member:
Vitus Marine LLC operates two coastal tug and barge sets built by Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) and several other smaller vessels. In addition to providing fuel to AVEC locations, Vitus provides bulk petroleum to other commercial enterprises from the Aleutians to the NW Arctic. Owners of Vitus are originally from the village of Aleknagik and are well acquainted with the challenges of operating in the Bering Sea and its tributary rivers. Vitus and its affiliated company Pacific Fishing Assets employ as many as 25 people during the busy summer season.
The operators of Vitus have seen incredible advances over the decades. Many began their fuel delivery work in the 60's, when it was common to see wooden barges loaded with 55 gallon drums of fuel for delivery to small villages. Now, steel tank barges efficiently deliver loads of fuel that can power a village for an entire year. Modern pumps and pipelines are a welcome relief to rolling 400 pound drums up a gravel beach to the high water mark.
Bristol Bay is the home base for the Vitus fleet, and by the end of October most vessels will be moored in the Wood River for the winter. Southwest Alaska is the natural place to store equipment in fresh water, ready for the open water season in May. During the winter Vitus staff looks for creative ways to stay in the fuel business, like chartering ice-class tankers to deliver fuel to Nome.
|
Community Spotlight: Saint Paul
There is a common saying in Saint Paul, the bigger of the two Pribilof Islands: "This is the only place in the world where you can experience all four seasons in one hour." With its unique location, floating boldly in the center of the Bering Sea, it is easy to understand how the weather changes fast. Although discovered by Russian navigator Gavriil Pribilof in 1786 while out searching for the breeding grounds of the Bering Sea's abundant seal populations, the Aleuts long knew of the Islands, which they called Amiq, after the namesake chief was lost in a storm.
Today approximately 500 inhabitants call the island home. The volcanic landscape has crafted green rolling treeless hills with abundant rocky beaches, carved out of steep cliffs perfect for seal and sea lion haulouts. Sealing has since been replaced by commercial fisheries as the primary driver of economic activity on Saint Paul.
Trident Seafoods' processing operation is the largest crab production facility in the world, but also processes cod, Pollock and halibut. At full capacity, the plant can process 450,000 pounds of crab in a single day, with a workforce of 400 people. The Trident plan lost a warehouse to a major fire on February 9th, 2012, though the community has used the disaster to take advantage of back-haul efforts to remove delinquent vehicles and other scrap metal on the outgoing barge. Trident is in the process of designing the new "dream warehouse" which could include extra amenities that were absent from the original structure.
Foresight allowed the community to see that the rising costs of importing fuel would be a drain on resources. TDX, the village corporation, acquired three 225 kw/h turbines, capable of annually displacing $200,000 in electrical generation and $50,000 in heating from diesel-derived power. In addition to taking control of their power needs, the community operates and manages fishing quota under the Central Bering Sea Fisherman's Association. Profits from the community fishing quota are invested in fishing infrastructure, educational opportunities and community outreach. Saint Paul is a community of strong, proud people that are surely looking forward to a bright future, by taking control of their natural resources today.
|
|
Climatic Patterns in Alaska: Are PDO Cycles Affecting Salmon Returns?
Most Alaskans are aware of El Nino and his cold little sister La Nina; however, Alaska may be even more affected by stronger and longer term climatic effects than these common short-term variations. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is a climate index based upon patterns of variation in sea surface temperature of the North Pacific from 1900 to the present ( Mantua et al. 1997). While derived from sea surface temperature data, the PDO index is well correlated with many records of North Pacific and Pacific Northwest climate and ecology, including sea level pressure, winter land-surface temperature and precipitation, and stream flow. The index is also correlated with salmon landings from Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. Warm and cold phases can persist for decades; for example, a warm phase existed from 1925 to 1946, and a cool phase from 1947 to 1976. Then, from 1977 to 1998 another 21-year warm phase occurred. Recent evidence suggests that the multi-decadal trends may be more choppy, as the north Pacific has jumped from warm to cool phases on much shorter 2-5 year cycles since 1998.  Data suggests that there is a strong correlation to PDO cycles and ocean productivity. Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate. Research by Dr. Nathan Mantua and his colleagues has subsequently shown that adult salmon catches in the Northwest Pacific were correlated with the PDO ( Mantua et al. 1997). While cool PDO cycles tend to increase productivity in the Pacific Northwest, data suggest that the cool phase, like the one we are in now, has negative implications for productivity of Alaska's waters. As coastal people, we likely have our own interpretations about climatic conditions of the past few years and variations in salmon returns. The measurable facts are that we have experienced variable weather, and there has been noticeable anomalies in expected salmon returns from Norton Sound to the Sacramento River in California. The link between PDO and ocean productivity, as well as the forecasts for the next 30 or more years, will likely not be a certainty until looked at retrospectively. The only thing I know for sure about fisheries (and weather) is that I have no idea what next season will bring. - Erik
|
|
|
|
Current SWAMC Members
Adak, City of Adak Eagle Enterprises* AIDEA Akutan, City of Alaska Airlines Alaska Aerospace Corp.* Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers* Alaska Cruise Association Alaska Groundfish Data Bank Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Alaska Scallop Association ASMI Alaska Village Electric Coop.
Aleknagik, City of
Aleutians East Borough
Aleutian Housing Authority
Alyeska Seafoods
APICDA
At-Sea Processors Assoc.
Atka, City of
Belkofski Tribal Council
Boyd, Chandler & Falconer
BBEDC
Bristol Bay Borough
Bristol Bay Campus- UAF
Bristol Bay Housing Auth.
Bristol Bay Native Assoc.
Bristol Bay Native Corp.
Coastal Transportation Inc*
Commercial Fishing & Agriculture Bank (CFAB)
Crowley Petroleum Dist.
Curyung Tribal Council
Dillingham, City of
DOWL HKM*
Egegik, City of
False Pass, City of
First National Bank Alaska
The Foraker Group
Grand Aleutian Hotel
HDR Engineering
High Tide Environmental & Exploration*
Icicle Seafoods
Karluk Village Council
Katmailand, Inc.
Key Bank
King Cove, City of
King Cove Corporation
Kodiak, City of
Kodiak College- UAA
Kodiak Inn - Best Western
Kodiak Island Borough
Koniag, Inc.
Lake & Peninsula Borough
Magone Marine Service
Manokotak, City of
Marine Advisory Program
Marine Stewardship Council
McDowell Group
New Stuyahok, City of
Northern Economics, Inc.
Nushagak Cooperative
Old Harbor, City of
Ouzinkie, City of
Pacific Seafood Processors Association
Pebble Limited Partnership
Pedro Bay Corporation
Pilot Point, City of
PND Engineers, Inc.
Port Lions, City of
Qagan Tayagungin Tribe*
St. Paul, City of
Sand Point, City of
Shumagin Corporation
Southwest Alaska Vocational Education Center (SAVEC)
The Aleut Corp.
Unalaska, City of
UniSea, Inc.
Vitus Marine LLC*
WACDA
Westward Seafoods
*Denotes new member.
|
Some of Our Partners
|
We're a member of
|
Visit Southwest Alaska
|
SWAMC Board of DirectorsShirley Marquardt, Pres.
Alice Ruby Glen Gardner
Joe Sullivan Kathleen Totemoff Lamar Cotten Layton Lockett Louise Stutes
Patrick Jordan Paul Gronholdt Trevor Brown
|
SWAMC Staff Andy Varner
Executive Director
Erik O'Brien Economist; Development Specialist Cameron Dean STEM Coordinator/VISTA |
|
| Upcoming Events & Dates to Remember |
- North Pacific Fishery Management Council Meeting, Anchorage. October 1-9.
- 2012 AFN Convention, Anchorage. October 18-20.
- Chinook Science Symposium, Anchorage. October 22-23.
- General Elections, Statewide. November 6.
- AML Local Government Conference, Anchorage. November 12-16.
- Alaska Board of Fish Meeting (Bristol Bay Finfish), Naknek. December 4-12.
- SWAMC Annual Conference + Energy Workshop, Anchorage. February 20-22, 2013.
- Alaska Board of Fish Meeting (AP/AI Finfish), Anchorage. February 26 - March 3, 2013.
|
As always...
|
Thanks for your support of SWAMC. Please don't hesitate to share your thoughts, ideas, concerns and events. For previous newsletters, click the link below.
| |
|
|
|
|
