The Damaging Effects of Underestimated Projects

by Gary Hinkle

Stretching a Stretch Goal

How far can you stretch a stretch goal before it snaps? Wouldn't it be nice if there were a formula for that--if it were actually a predictable property with a scientific underpinning you could look up in your old physics textbook?

By stretch goal, I'm referring primarily to deadlines, when we estimate how long a project task will take and decide to be aggressive, when a get-it-done spirit comes over the team: It usually takes us a week to run this series of tests, but let's make it happen in two days this time. Let's stretch ourselves and bring this in earlier than usual! Next thing you know, the stretch goal is on the project schedule.

But when reality hits, the testing takes almost four days, better than the usual week but a "miss" on the task...and it then ripples to the "complete testing" milestone.

When an overly optimistic mindset drives an entire project schedule, the ripple effect leads to projects that are weeks, months, or sometimes even years late.

Wouldn't it be nice to know how far you can stretch a stretch goal before it snaps?

Damage from Overstretching

When a stretch goal snaps, there are damaging effects, some quantifiable, some not. Late projects hurt morale, causing distrust to surface within the team and the larger organization. Managers start to doubt the accuracy of future estimates, and then team members stop believing that management supports realistic plans.

Late projects cut into profits, too, and though the exact amount might be hard to nail, it's usually more significant than the financial metrics suggest. To make matters worse, Read more.