Yesterday's, crop estimate from FCStone took five bushels off last month's USDA corn yield projection (158 BPA).

My most rewarding grain marketing year was 1983, during the drought and the USDA PIK (Payment-In-Kind) program.  Expectations were set high for a record corn yield of 120 BPA but the final number came in at only 80 BPA.  Today's corn genetics (e.g. leaf angle) mean the trade only has to worry about a 5% yield reduction compared to the 20% drops seen pre-bioengineering.

The USDA's first data for select bioengineered crops was published in 2000.  41% of the total corn, soybean and cotton area (169 million acres) were planted with bioengineered seed.  In the recent USDA Acreage Report (June 30), the rate of bioengineered planting for these crops had jumped to 91% of the 181 million acres planted.

With this year's tight, global supply/demand balance (with no reserve stocks to fall back on), how would we handle "risk/supply management" if our corn yield expectations were diminished by even 10%?