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Edgar Hicks    
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Market Comments covers weekly developments from Wed. to Tues.
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Market Comments: 1/12/11

 
USDA Extends Price Bubble

 

This morning, the USDA Crop Summary reduced the September corn carry-out number to 745 million bushels and the bean carry-out to 140 million bushels.  In the past, the USDA, has 'found' bushels to add to crop numbers, but not this year.

 

From a risk management perspective, these obviously bullish numbers (being confirmed) speak for themselves in terms of ownership exposure.  It's a reminder of a situation where you may be able to cover part of your price exposure with futures but you may come up short in term of actual ownership of bushels.  The part many of us in procurement can remember is finally being able to meet ownership requirements for that last fiscal quarter.  The market does its job price rationing and you wind-up buying the tail end of the market.

We believe positions are unique to each person's risk bearing ability, marketing strategy and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.