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Market Commentary
Economic Updates
Recent News |
Weekly
Commentary
July
26, 2010
The Markets
"The economy is still struggling; too many
Americans are still out of work; and the Nation's long-term fiscal trajectory
is unsustainable, threatening future prosperity," according to the Mid-Session
Review submitted by the White House last week.
This
supplemental update of the annual budget contained a number of projections that
are of interest to us. Here are a few: - A
projected federal deficit of $2.9 trillion over the next two fiscal years.
-
Gross
Domestic Product projected to grow 3.2% this year, 3.6% in 2011, and 4.2% in
2012.
-
Unemployment
projected to average 9.7% this year, 9.0% in 2011, and 8.1% in 2012. It is
projected to stay above 6% until 2015.
-
The
consumer price index projected to rise 1.6% this year, 1.3% next year, and 1.8%
in 2012.
-
The
10-year Treasury projected to yield on average 3.5% in 2010, 4.0% in 2011, and
4.6% in 2012.
Projections
like this are, of course, notoriously difficult to get right. So much can
happen in a short period and throw off the best laid plans. But, looking at the
projections at least gives us a place to start. Overall, the projections are a
mixed bag. The deficit numbers are problematic. The GDP growth projection is
good if we can hit it. The unemployment numbers are painful. The inflation
outlook is stable and the Treasury yield is favorable for business growth.
If, by
the end of 2012, the above numbers come to fruition, then we would likely avoid
a double-dip recession and the economy would probably "muddle along." So far,
corporate America is doing its part by showing really solid earnings for the
second quarter. Companies such as Caterpillar, 3M, AT&T, and UPS notched
solid quarters and suggest there is underlying strength in the economy,
according to MarketWatch. In fact, of the 175 companies in the S&P 500 that
have already reported their second quarter earnings, a whopping 78% have beaten
analysts' estimates while only 12% missed, according to data from Thomson
Reuters as reported by MarketWatch. Buoyed by good earnings and relief over the
European bank stress tests, the S&P 500 rose a solid 3.6% last week.
Given
all the volatility we've had over the past 2½ years, "muddle along" might not
be so bad!
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Data as of
7/23/10
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1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
| |
Standard &
Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
3.6%
|
-1.1%
|
12.6%
|
-10.6%
|
-2.1%
|
-2.8%
| |
DJ Global ex US
(Foreign Stocks)
|
1.9
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-4.8
|
10.1
|
-11.9
|
2.2.
|
0.8
| |
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
3.0
|
N/A
|
3.7
|
5.0
|
4.3
|
6.0
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Gold (per ounce)
|
0.1
|
7.8
|
25.3
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20.4
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22.9
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15.6
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DJ-UBS
Commodity Index
|
1.8
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-6.7
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5.5
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-8.6
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-3.6
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2.7
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DJ Equity All
REIT TR Index
|
6.3
|
13.5
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56.1
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-6.1
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0.9
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10.5
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Notes: S&P
500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested
dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year
returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested
dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the
10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of
the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo!
Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of
future results. Indices are unmanaged
and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable or not available. WHETHER AN INVESTOR LEANS BULLISH
OR BEARISH, there
is ample data to support either view. This situation may explain why Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that the economic outlook was
"unusually uncertain." For those investors who lean bullish, here are several
supporting points courtesy of economist David Rosenberg as reported by Financial Times:
-
Congress
extended jobless benefits, which is one form of stimulus.
- Some
Democrats are now in favor of delaying tax hikes.
-
China
is having some success slowing its property bubble without bursting it.
-
Confidence
is growing that the emerging markets may keep world growth positive even if
more mature countries slow down.
- Eurozone
debt and money markets have settled down after the problems with Greece sparked
default fears.
-
The
European bank stress tests contained no major surprises and added clarity to
the soundness of the banking system.
-
Consumer
credit delinquency rates in the U.S. are improving.
-
Mortgage
delinquencies in California, one of the hardest hit real estate markets, are at
a three-year low.
-
The
BP oil spill is coming under control and is no longer each day's top headline.
-
The
passage of the financial regulation bill removed one more cloud of uncertainty.
-
Corporate
America is reporting solid earnings for the second quarter and their future
outlook has been, on balance, positive.
-
Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated he'll keep using monetary policy to stimulate
the economy and he'll get even more aggressive if need be.
So, yes,
there are reasons why the markets and the economy could do okay in the months
to come. But, in this "unusually uncertain" time, it still makes sense to be
"on guard." Weekly Focus - Think
About It "Even if
I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple
tree." --Martin Luther King, Jr.
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