Days are getting shorter, mornings require jackets and gloves, and the time has come to fire up woodstoves and furnaces. In Maine, about 71 percent of housing units rely on fuel oil or kerosene for heating. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2009 American Community Survey) This is the highest rate in the nation - in New Hampshire, which comes in second, about 51 percent of housing units rely on fuel oil. No wonder the price of heating oil is such a hot topic at this time of year!

In the past few years, heating oil prices have been all over the place. In the late summer and fall of 2008, especially following Hurricane Katrina, prices were very high. Prices dropped significantly through March 2009. Following slight increases in mid- to late-2009, prices remained steady through most of 2010, but are beginning to rise again. Currently, kerosene is at $3.09 statewide and heating oil is at $2.76 per gallon.

The heating oil season runs from October through March. The Governor's Office of Energy Independence and Security conducts two weekly surveys of heating oil prices in Maine. One is conducted year-round and asks dealers for their cash price for #2 heating oil, kerosene, and propane. The other is conducted only during the heating season and provides data to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which publishes weekly heating oil prices by state during the heating season. The Energy Information Association also provides a wealth of information on other energy-related topics.

So what can Mainers expect for the 2010/2011 heating season? The Energy Information Administration's latest Winter Fuels Outlook (released October 13, 2010) makes projections for heating oil prices and costs to households. They start with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's projection of heating degree-days: the Northeast is projected to be 5% colder than last winter. Then they project the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil: $80 per barrel, which is $2.50 more per barrel than last winter. This leads to a projection of residential heating oil prices averaging $3.06 per gallon, which is $0.22 more per gallon than last winter. This means the average Northeastern household is projected to spend about $259 more (13%) than last winter.

The rising cost of crude oil and the projection of a colder winter combine to equal higher heating costs. What to do? Look for ways to increase energy efficiency, conserve energy, and perhaps even explore alternative energy sources. One place to start? Contact Efficiency Maine, check out the Home Energy Savings Program, and stay warm this winter.

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