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Economics and Demographics 
Vol. III, Issue 2 Forward to a Friend   April 2010
In This Issue:
LeVert and Lawton Talk Tourism
SPO Releases Population Projections to 2028
February Taxable Retail Sales
2010 Census Mail-back Complete; Household Enumeration Begins
Census State Data Center Highlights
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Our last newsletter included articles on Maine's Economic Forecasting Commission, the LD 1 2009 Annual Report, November Taxable Retail Sales, Out-migration driving population decline in the Census Bureau's 2009 population estimates for Maine, LeVert and Lawton's "Working Knowledge" series in Mainebiz, 2010 Census Kickoff, and Census Highlights. If you missed a previous newsletter, archived versions are available on our website.
Meet the Team
 

Michael LeVert is the State Economist. Michael manages the Economics and Demographics team and sits on the State's Revenue Forecasting Committee. He holds a Master's Degree in Resource Economics from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and a Graduate Certificate in Statistics from the University of Southern Maine. Before joining the State Planning Office, Michael worked as an economist and statistician in the private sector. His interests include leveraging Maine's Quality of Place as an economic development strategy. Michael lives in Cumberland with his wife Fonda and daughter Robin.

Amanda Rector serves as the Governor's Liaison to the Census Bureau, staffs the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, and works on special research projects. Prior to joining the SPO Economics and Demographics team in 2007, Amanda worked at the Maine Department of Labor, Division of Labor Market Information Services. Amanda has a BA in Economics from Wellesley College and is pursuing a Master's degree in Public Policy from the Muskie School at the University of Southern Maine. She is originally from mid-coast Maine and now lives in Union.

Joel Johnson holds a Master's Degree in Resource Economics and Policy from the University of Maine, where his research interests included environmental valuation methods, international trade, and socioeconomic disparities across Maine. The latest addition to the SPO Economics and Demographics Team, he most recently completed a NOAA Coastal Management Fellowship with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. He is also an outdoor enthusiast and Registered Maine Guide.

Thomas Merrill coordinates the Maine State Data Center as a geographer and computer scientist with an undergraduate degree from the University of Maine at Farmington. He is pursuing a Master's degree in Regional Economic and Social Development at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. He has previous experience and continuing interest in Asset Development for low-income communities, Geographical Information Science, and database/MIS development. Thomas is a native of central Maine.
 
Greetings from the Economics and Demographics Team!

Welcome to the latest edition of the Economics and Demographics newsletter from the Maine State Planning Office. If you have received a text version and would like to see the full version, please visit our website. Please let us know if you have any comments or suggestions.
LeVert and Lawton Talk Tourism
 
In Part Four of "Working Knowledge," Michael LeVert and Chuck Lawton's six-part Mainebiz series about Maine's economy, the authors discuss challenges and opportunities facing tourism businesses in Maine.
 
Leisure and hospitality businesses were hit hard by the recession, but tourism in Maine is relatively resilient compared to more exotic locales simply because Maine gets more day visitors and visitors traveling by car instead of plane. 

Nevertheless, tourism is increasingly globalized and competitive so Maine must not be complacent about attracting visitors. Maine's natural and cultural amenities must be complemented by improved infrastructure (signage, visitor centers, etc.); branding, packaging, and marketing; and consistently high-quality customer service. The world-class destinations in Maine need and deserve similarly superlative service.

Specific recommendations include improving workforce development programs for the leisure and hospitality industry (see here for example), extending the traditional tourist seasons with special events, and selling a complete experience-lodging, food, and activities all in one- rather than discrete products.
 
Attracting visitors and wowing them when they get here isn't just about tourism.  The better their experience as a visitor, the more likely they are to invest, start a business, or retire in Maine.

SPO Releases Population Projections, 2013-2028

The Economics and Demographics Team released Maine Population Outlook: Maine County and State Population Projections 2013-2028.

The population projections are in five-year intervals to correspond with the employment projections issued by the Center for Workforce Research and Information at the Maine Department of Labor. Projections are given for five-year age cohorts by sex. Town-level projections will be released once the necessary data are available for the calculations, likely in late 2011.

Maine has the oldest median age in the country, the second-smallest percentage of the population under the age of 18, and the second-highest percentage of non-Hispanic white residents. These factors all combine to give Maine a rapidly aging population and slow population growth.
 
Demographics are important for companies making future plans based on workforce characteristics and for policy makers to make informed decisions about what skills, services, and resources will be needed years in advance. Maine's particular demographic challenges in the coming years will center around the aging population and slow population growth.
 
As the baby boomers begin to retire, employers will be faced with the possibility of more job openings than people to fill them. In addition, the skill sets of the younger generations may not match the openings available. Demand for health care workers of all sorts will rise as the baby boomers require more medical care. In order for Maine's population to grow and firms to find the employees they need, in-migration to Maine must increase.
 
The next two decades appear to be a turning point for Maine's population. If the slow in-migration of the last few years continues, Maine's population is projected to grow until 2018, after which point the population is expected to decline.

February Taxable Retail Sales

The Economics and Demographics Team reports monthly retail sales information on its website. Timely information on retail sales provides an up-to-date picture of Maine's economy. Many businesses use it to gauge their market strength and find new sales opportunities. Public officials use it to estimate revenues. Economists use it to project income and employment growth.

Total taxable retail sales in February 2010 were up 0.2% from February 2009, signaling the first year over year increase in total taxable sales since July 2008.  Food store sales were 1% lower in February 2010 than in February of 2009, and auto/transportation sales were down 9.5%.  All other store categories indicated an increase in year over year sales raising personal consumption expenditures 0.3%.  Sales for the last three months, December through February, remained 1.5% lower than the same time period a year ago. Detailed reports on Maine retail sales are available here.

February retail sales table

State Data Center News

Maine's Source for Census Data
 Census 2010: it's in our hands
2010 Census Mail-back Complete; Household Enumeration Begins
 
U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke congratulated the nation for its strong participation in the 2010 Census to date, as the Census Bureau reported that 72% of U.S. households have mailed back their 2010 Census forms. This equals the rate achieved during the 2000 Census despite the fact that population has grown by some 30 million and is more diverse than ten years ago. Maine's mail-back participation rate increased to 66% in 2010 from 65% in 2000 ranging from 74% participation in Androscoggin County to 46% in Franklin County.
 
On May 1, hundreds of thousands of census takers, also called enumerators, begin the monumental task of going to every household in the country that either did not return or did not receive a census form. The enumerators, who have been hired from local communities, carry an official badge and shoulder bag. The census taker will complete the questionnaire, which should take about 10 minutes. If no one is home, a "notice of visit" will be left at the door inviting the resident to call the census taker to complete the form over the phone. More information can be found at the 2010 Census website.
 
Census State Data Center Highlights 

  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released estimates of personal income at the county level for 2008. Personal income is a comprehensive measure of the income of all persons from all sources. Total personal income in Maine grew 0.2% after adjusting for inflation, but this was fueled primarily by growth in government transfer payments as all counties experienced decreases in earned income. Per capita personal income (personal income divided by population) was $36,368 for the state and ranged from $29,199 in Oxford County to $45,147 in Cumberland County.

  • The U.S. Census Bureau released "Economic Characteristics of Households in the United States". Survey data collected during the third quarter of 2008 showed that in an average month, 156.7 million people aged 16 or older (66.9% of people of working age) engaged in some form of labor force activity (working, on layoff, or looking for work). 91% of this labor force had a job for the entire month. During this same time period, approximately 45% of U.S. residents lived in households in which at least one individual received government benefits. The two government programs affecting the largest number of households are Social Security and Medicare. About 33.6 million households (28.6%) received Social Security or Railroad Retirement benefits and 30.8 million (26.2%) received benefits from Medicare. 

  • The Census Bureau reports nearly 6 in 10 advanced degree holders between the ages of 25-29 are women in the data set "Educational Attainment in the United States: 2009". More women than men are expected to occupy professions such as doctors, lawyers, and college professors as they represent approximately 58 percent of young adults who hold an advanced degree.  Additionally, more women than men had high school diplomas and bachelor's degrees. The data also demonstrate the extent to which having such a degree pays off: average earnings in 2008 totaled $83,144 for those with an advanced degree, compared with $58,613 for those with a bachelor's degree only. People whose highest level of attainment was a high school diploma had average earnings of $31,283.
This newsletter is prepared by the Maine State Planning Office's Economics and Demographics Team. It is designed to provide economic and demographic information and analysis to state policy makers and affiliates of the Maine State Data Center. 
 
SPO Economics and Demographics Team:
(207) 287-2456
Michael LeVert, State Economist
Amanda Rector, Senior Economist
Joel Johnson, Economist
Thomas Merrill, Economist