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Our last newsletter included articles on Maine's Economic Forecasting Commission, the Cost of Heating Oil, and State and Local Government Finances from the Census Bureau. If you missed a previous newsletter, archived versions are available on our website. |
Meet the Team
Michael LeVert is the State Economist. Michael manages the
Economics and Demographics team and sits on the State's Revenue Forecasting
Committee. He holds a Master's Degree in Resource Economics from the University
of Massachusetts Amherst and a Graduate Certificate in Statistics from the
University of Southern Maine. Before joining the State Planning Office, Michael
worked as an economist and statistician in the private sector. His interests
include leveraging Maine's Quality of Place as an economic development
strategy. Michael lives in Cumberland with his wife Fonda and daughter Robin.
Amanda Rector serves as the Governor's Liaison to the Census Bureau,
staffs the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, and works on
special research projects. Prior to joining the SPO Economics and
Demographics team in 2007, Amanda worked at the Maine Department of
Labor, Division of Labor Market Information Services. Amanda has a BA
in Economics from Wellesley College and is pursuing a Master's degree
in Public Policy from the Muskie School at the University of Southern
Maine. She is originally from mid-coast Maine and now lives in Union.
Joel Johnson holds a Master's Degree in Resource
Economics and Policy from the University
of Maine, where his research interests
included environmental valuation methods, international trade, and
socioeconomic disparities across Maine. The latest addition to the SPO Economics and
Demographics Team, he most recently completed a NOAA Coastal Management
Fellowship with the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. He is also an outdoor enthusiast and
Registered Maine Guide.
Thomas Merrill coordinates the Maine State Data Center as a geographer and computer scientist with an undergraduate degree from the University of Maine at Farmington. He is pursuing a Master's degree in Regional Economic and Social Development at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. He has previous experience and continuing interest in Asset Development for low-income communities, Geographical Information Science, and database/MIS development. Thomas is a native of central Maine. | |
Greetings from the Economics and Demographics Team
Welcome to the latest edition of the Economics and Demographics newsletter from the Maine State Planning Office. If you have received a text version and would like to see the full version, please visit our website. Please let us know if you have any comments or suggestions. |
Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission Meets, January 2010
The Economics and Demographics Team provides staff support
for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of
economists who forecast Maine's economy. The Commission convened on January 25,
2010, to revise its November 2009 forecast. The report summarizing the Commission's findings will be available in full on February 1st at SPO's CEFC webpage.
The decline in the national and state economic outlook
has continued to ease since the CEFC met in October. Oil prices remain below
their mid-2008 peak, and home sales were up in the third quarter of 2009
compared to the third quarter of 2008. Consumer sentiment has improved somewhat
in recent months and coincident indexes are continuing to improve for most
states. The February forecast reflects a continued stabilization in national and state
economic activity. The revised forecast makes few changes to expectations of
employment growth compared with the November forecast: employment losses will
bottom out in the second quarter of 2010 followed by a modest recovery. Sharp
declines in wages and salaries and proprietors' income during the first quarter
of 2009 will result in a slight decline in personal income over the year,
followed by a slow recovery through 2010. The forecast for personal income was revised upwards
slightly for 2009 and 2010 from the previous forecast, while 2011, 2012, and
2013 were revised slightly downwards.
This table outlines the forecast's major
indicators: |
LD 1 2009 Annual Report
Each January, the State Planning Office reports on the progress made by
the state, counties, municipalities, and School Administrative Units (SAUs)
toward reaching the goals set forth in LD 1: An Act to Increase the State
Share of Education Costs, Reduce Property Taxes, and Reduce Government Spending
at All Levels (Public Law 2005, Chapter 2). This year's report registers
the effects of the global recession and the jail unification law.
As it has every year since 2005, Maine's General Fund appropriations level
remained below the limit set by LD 1. This year, severe revenue shortfalls due
to the national recession helped push appropriations $443 million (13%) under
the limit. The state remains under its LD 1 cap even when the $222 million in
additional general purpose aid to local schools is included.
Municipalities also responded to the recession by nearly halving tax levy
growth for municipal operations from 4.7% in 2007 and 2008 to 2.5% in 2009.
However, the experience of individual municipalities varied: 29% of
municipalities overspent their 2009 LD 1 limit, with smaller municipalities
being significantly more likely to do so than larger ones.
The recent jail unification law helped curb growth in tax collections by
counties to municipalities from 7.5% in 2008 to 1.7% in 2009. Total county
assessments were under their LD 1 limit by 1.3%. SPO estimates that absent jail
unification, county assessments would have increased by 6.1%.
School Administrative Units (SAUs) continued to overspend their LD 1 limits in
2009, but the margin by which they exceeded their limits was less than last
year. Similar to municipalities, conforming SAUs stayed closer to their LD 1
limits.
The full report is available on SPO's LD 1 website: http://www.maine.gov/spo/economics/ld1/.
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November Taxable Retail Sales
The Economics and Demographics Team reports monthly retail
sales information on its website. Timely
information on retail sales provides an up-to-date picture of Maine's economy. Many businesses use it to gauge their market
strength and find new sales opportunities. Public officials use it to estimate revenues. Economists use it to project income and
employment growth. Total
taxable retail sales in November 2009 were down 2.3% from November 2008 and were 7.8%
lower year-to-date compared to the same period last year. Food store and auto transportation sales were
higher in November 2009 than in November of 2008. Building supply sales were 6.5% lower through
November compared to the same period last year.
Detailed reports on Maine retail sales are available here.
Retail sales data originate in businesses' reports to Maine Revenue Services. |
| Out-migration Reflected in 2009 Population Estimates
Maine's population of about 1.3 million just did something
rare these days: it declined. According
to estimates by the US Census Bureau, Maine lost about one tenth of one percent
of its population between 2008 and 2009. The loss was driven by an increase in domestic out-migration.
Population growth comes from two places: natural increase
(births minus deaths) and migration. Maine's
population has only small natural increases because it is the oldest in the
country and has one of the lowest percentages of non-white residents, who
typically have higher birth rates. Earlier in the decade, Maine's population
growth was bolstered by net in-migration -- more people moving into Maine than out
of Maine. That changed from 2008 to
2009, as Maine saw net out-migration: more people moving out of the state than in.
Recessions can affect people's decisions about
moving, so more years of data would be needed to call this a trend. Still, population growth is an important
component of long-term economic growth because businesses need a dependable
supply of labor to provide goods and services.
Promoting Maine's Quality of Place and other strategies to boost
in-migration over the long run are crucial for Maine's economic future.
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Editorial Series Explores Maine's Important Industries
Economists Michael
LeVert and Chuck Lawton explore what Maine's business decision makers really
need to grow in a 6-part series introduced in the following excerpt from Mainebiz:
Discussions about Maine's future
prosperity inevitably center on business. How do we attract more businesses? How do we keep the ones we have? How do we stay competitive, support clusters,
develop new markets? There is no
shortage of strategies to address these questions - wind power, tax reform,
Pine Tree Zones, quality of place, medical schools, carbon offsets,
eco-clusters, to name a few. All are
designed, in one way or another, to answer the larger question: How do
we bring sustainable economic growth and prosperity to Maine people?
Over the next several months, we're
going to ask decision makers within four key Maine industries -- paper making,
health care, tourism, and energy that very question. We'll look at the statistical trends and talk
to business owners. We'll focus on what
strategies they're pursuing to address fundamental facts of economic life. We'll learn how they see Maine's economic
future and what public policies are most critical to their success.
What are they facing
in this economic climate? Plenty. Over the past two decades, Maine's economy has
seen four fundamental changes--a structural upheaval in the sources of our
employment, significantly slower rates of growth, an aging population and labor
force, and increasing regional disparities. Understanding these changes and recognizing
the challenges they pose are critical to successful public-private
collaboration in support of economic growth. Read more at Mainebiz: the first and second articles are currently available. | |
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State Data Center News
Maine's Source for Census Data
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2010 Census Kickoff
Census 2010 is right around the corner -- the next decennial
census count will take place on April 1, 2010. Census forms will be mailed to
households in mid-March, and hundreds of thousands of temporary census workers
will visit households that did not respond in the months that follow. Everyone
is encouraged to take 10 minutes, answer the 10 questions on the form, and mail
the completed form back to the Census Bureau.
Why participate in the census? Aside from being required by
law, the census count helps determine three very important things:
apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, local legislative
districts, and the annual distribution of $400 billion of federal funds.
All responses to the census are confidential and protected
by law. No one -- not even the President of the United States -- can see
individual responses to the census for 72 years after the count is taken. Census workers swear an oath to protect the confidentiality of the responses. Failure to do so can result in a five-year prison sentence and/or a $25,000
fine.
The
Census Bureau has launched a national advertising campaign and will be
participating in events around the country to raise awareness for the census. Maine will be hosting a Census 2010 kickoff on February 26, 2010, from 11 am to
1 pm in the Hall of Flags at the State House in Augusta. |
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Census Highlights
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The Census Bureau has released the 2009 population estimates by state, including birth, death, and migration components of population change. This is the final set of state population estimates to be released before the results of the 2010 decennial count are released in December 2010.
The 2007 Economic Census is being released, providing a detailed portrait of the United
States' economy every five years at the national, state, county, and local
levels. It covers detailed statistics of business establishments, including annual sales, revenue, payroll, employment, and statistics on minority- and women-owned businesses, categorized by industry group.
- State government revenue nationwide declined by 15.8% in FY2008 according to new
data on state government finances released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Education, public welfare, and highways represented the top three outlays, accounting for nearly
two-thirds of all state government total expenditures. Maine ranked 2nd, behind Tennessee, in percent of total expenditures on public welfare, followed closely by Rhode Island. Public
welfare spending is used to support people based on need and includes
such items as old-age assistance, temporary assistance for needy
families, and commodities and services provided under welfare programs,
including medical care.
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