The Economics and Demographics Team provides staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The Commission convened on October 26, 2009 to revise its April 2009 forecast. This report provides a summary of the Commission's findings. 

The decline in the national and state economic outlook has begun to ease since the CEFC met in March. Oil prices remain below their mid-2008 peak, and home sales appear to be gaining traction. Consumer sentiment has improved somewhat in recent months. Some states are beginning to see improving economic conditions. While there is growing belief that the national recession has now technically ended, economic conditions remain fragile.

The fall forecast reflects a slowing of the sharp decline in national and state economic activity that began in the fall of 2008. The revised forecast reduces expectations of employment declines compared with the Spring forecast, but three more quarters of employment loss are expected, with a modest recovery beginning in mid-2010. Sharp declines in wages and salaries and proprietors' income during the first quarter of 2009 will result in a slight decline in personal income over the year, followed by a weak recovery through 2010. The growth in transfer payments (including unemployment insurance) during the second half of 2009 will offset losses in wage and salary income, resulting in a small positive change in personal income even while wages and salaries are falling.

This table outlines the forecast's major indicators:



For more information, go to SPO's CEFC webpage.