In Case You Missed
It...
Our last newsletter included articles on reducing Maine's tax burden, population projections, the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, and the American Community Survey. If you missed a previous newsletter, archived versions are available on our website. |
Meet the Team
Mike LeVert is Acting State Economist. Michael manages the Economics and
Demographics team and sits on the State's Revenue Forecasting Committee. His
interests include leveraging Maine's
Quality of Place as an economic development strategy. Michael lives in Cumberland with his wife
Fonda and daughter Robin.
Thomas Merrill is a geographer and computer scientist with an undergraduate degree from the University of Maine at Farmington and pursuing a Master's degree in Regional Economic and Social Development at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. He has previous experience and continuing interest in Asset Development and Financial Education for low-income communities in New England. A native of Livermore, Thomas is happy to have recently moved home to central Maine and close to family.
Amanda Rector coordinates the Census Bureau's State Data Center program in Maine, serves as the Governor's Liaison to the Census Bureau, and works on special research projects. Amanda has a BA in economics from Wellesley College and is pursuing a Master's degree in Public Policy from the Muskie School at the University of Southern Maine. She is originally from mid-coast Maine and now lives in Union. | |
Greetings from the Economics and Demographics Team
Welcome to the latest edition of the Economics and Demographics newsletter from the Maine State Planning Office. If you have received a text version and would like to see the full version, please visit our website. Please let us know if you have any comments or suggestions. |
Census Workers Hit
the Streets
The decennial census is now just a year away, and the first
field operation is about to begin. Starting April 20, people from Maine
communities and neighborhoods will be conducting address canvassing operations
around the state.
What is address canvassing?
During address canvassing, approximately 800 census takers
under the direction of the Portland Local Census Office will work to make sure
the address list is accurate. The census employees will use handheld computers
to verify the location of housing units in your community, confirming where the
US Census Bureau will send questionnaires and enumerators for the 2010 Census. Employees
can be identified by the official Census Bureau badge they carry.
Census workers will look for every place where people live,
stay, or could live or stay. They will compare what they see on the ground to
what is shown on the Census Bureau's master address list. Based on their
findings, the census workers will verify, update, or delete addresses already
on the list, and add addresses that are missing from the list. At the same
time, they will use GPS-enabled handheld computers to ensure that each
structure is recorded within the correct block.
Confidentiality is of the highest importance to the Census
Bureau. Handheld computers can only be turned on by entering the user's
password and thumbprint. All census information collected, including addresses,
are confidential and protected by law. The Census Bureau cannot share
respondents' answers with the FBI, the CIA, Welfare, Immigration, or any other
government agency. No court of law, not even the President of the United States,
can find out respondents' answers. All Census Bureau employees take an oath for
life to keep census information confidential.
Address Canvassing is an important part of the 2010 Census. Its results will: - Help the Census Bureau build an up-to-date
Address List and maps to serve as the backbone of the decennial census.
- Lay the groundwork for a more cost-effective and
accurate decennial census.
- Pave the way for success of other 2010 Census
operations that follow.
For more information on the 2010 Census and Address
Canvassing, visit http://www.census.gov/2010census/.
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Forecasting Maine's Economy
The Economics and Demographics Team provides
staff support for the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), an
independent group of economists who forecast Maine's economy. The Commission convened on
March 31, 2009 to revise its November 2008 forecast. This report provides a summary of the Commission's findings.
Since the CEFC last met in October, 2008, the national and state economic
outlook has continued to worsen. Although oil prices fell from their
mid-2008 peak, the housing and credit markets have continued to decline.
Significant anxiety among consumers and business owners along with tight credit
conditions have caused steep drops in consumption, which has resulted in drops
in business activity and U.S.
gross output. While funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
of 2009 have begun entering the economy, the majority of these funds will not
begin to affect the economy until later in 2009, and then will only ameliorate
the decline in economic activity.
More
information about the CEFC can be found at: http://www.maine.gov/spo
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February Retail Sales
The Economics and Demographics Team reports monthly retail
sales information on its website. Timely
information on retail sales provides an up-to-date picture of Maine's economy. Many businesses use it to gauge their market
strength and find new sales opportunities.
Public officials use it to estimate revenues. Economists use it to project income and
employment growth.
Total taxable retail
sales in February 2009 were 9.0% lower than in February 2008, and down 8.7%
year-to-date compared to the same time period last year. Sales from Food Stores and from Other Retail Stores
remained positive for the second month of 2009 while all other categories saw
declines. Building Supply, Auto Transportation, and Lodging experienced the
steepest drops.
February 2009 Retail Sales
Retail sales data originate in businesses' reports to Maine Revenue Services. |
Property Taxes Lower, but School Spending Up
In their annual LD1 report,
the Maine State Planning Office found that in the four years since LD 1 became
law the State, counties, and municipalities have stayed within their LD 1
spending limits. The trend of school units exceeding their spending caps
continues to accelerate.
The law called "LD 1"
resulted from a 2004 citizens' referendum. The referendum increased the
State's share of aid to education in an ongoing effort to reduce property taxes
and lower Maine's
combined state and local tax burden.
State appropriations
actually declined for fiscal year 2008-09 by 2.2 percent, $221 million below
the LD 1 limit. Fifty-six percent of municipalities reporting were under
their 2008 property tax levy cap. Thirteen of Maine's 16 counties stayed within their 2008
LD 1 limits.
As part of this year's LD 1
report, Maine Revenue Services forecasts that the combined state and local tax
burden for 2008 will be 10.97 percent. The state and local tax burden for
2005, the first year of LD 1, was 11.28 percent.
Today's report shows that
for the fourth year in a row the growth rate of property taxes was lower than
before LD 1 went into effect. However, 88 percent of school administrative
units exceeded their spending benchmarks. Collectively, their spending
was $220 million above targeted levels. Compared to last year, both the
percentage of school units exceeding their limit and the amount they are over
has increased.
More information about the
LD 1 report can be found at www.maine.gov/spo.
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Maine's Real Estate
Market
Recent housing data through the 4th quarter of 2008 show an interesting trend in the Maine real estate market: home sales are declining steeply, but prices are not dropping as quickly. While home sales in the state have dropped well below their level in 2000, home prices in the state's largest metropolitan area remain well above what they were in 2000.
The National Association of Realtors tracks existing home sales at the state level. The number of existing homes sold in Maine each year rose steadily from 2000 until 2004 -- up 22.4% over those five years. The existing home sales rate flattened between 2004 and 2005 and has been in decline ever since, down 22% compared to 2000 and 33% compared to 2005.
The National Association of Realtors also tracks the median price of homes, but only at the metropolitan level, not the state level. The Portland metro area saw a 59% rise in real median home price (adjusted for inflation in 2008 dollars) from 2000 through 2005 when the median price peaked at $244,500. Portland-area home prices have been in slight decline since then, down 15% from 2005. Despite the recent decline, the 2008 Portland-area median home price is still up 35% (inflation adjusted 2008 dollars) from where it was in 2000.
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State Data Center News
Maine's Source for Census Data
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Census Highlights
- Census employees will be visiting communities around the
state during Address Canvassing operations. Beginning April 20, 2009, census
employees will use hand-held computers to verify the location of housing units
in your community, confirming where the US Census Bureau will send
questionnaires and enumerators for the 2010 Census. For more information on the 2010 Census and Address
Canvassing, visit http://www.census.gov/2010census/.
- The State
Data Center
of the Maine State Planning Office has formed a Complete Count Committee to develop
targeted outreach plans. Maine's
Complete Count Committee will work with state organizations and all communities
to educate our residents about the importance of being counted in the upcoming
Census. Local and tribal governments are encouraged to form their own Complete
Count Committees to help ensure an accurate count. For more information on how
to form a Complete Count Committee, visit http://2010.census.gov/partners/.
- The U.S. Census Bureau recently released the 2008 Annual
Survey of State Government Tax Collections. This survey measures taxes
collected by state governments and does not include local governments. Maine's ranking in per capita state government tax
collections improved from 14th in 2007 to 15th in 2008.
Of the six New England states, Maine ranked 4th
lowest on per capita state government tax collections (Rhode
Island was 5th and New Hampshire
was 6th); Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts
were all among the 10 highest states. For more information on State Government
Tax Collections, visit http://www.census.gov/govs/www/statetax.html.
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