 |
Meet the Team
Catherine Reilly is Maine's State Economist. She manages the Economics and Demographics team and sits on the State's Revenue Forecasting Committee. Ms. Reilly is SPO's representative on the Governor's Workforce Cabinet and Cabinet for Immigrant and Multicultural Affairs, and serves on the advisory board of the New England Public Policy Center. Ms. Reilly graduated from the Maine School of Science and Mathematics and holds a BA in Economics from Loyola College and an MA in Economics from Fordham University. She is a native of Hancock County.
Mike LeVert is an economist and statistician, with a Master's degree in Resource Economics from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In addition to special projects, Mike staffs the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission, reports monthly retail sales numbers, and is the lead author of the current LD 1 report. Mike lives in Cumberland with his wife Fonda and daughter Robin.
Thomas Merrill is a geographer and computer scientist with an undergraduate degree from the University of Maine at Farmington. He will soon be defending a graduate thesis on renewable energy firms in New England to complete a Master's degree in Regional Economic and Social Development at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. A native of Livermore, Thomas is especially happy to be back home in central Maine and close to family.
Amanda Rector coordinates the Census Bureau's State Data Center program in Maine, serves as the Governor's Liaison to the Census Bureau, and works on special research projects. Amanda has a BA in economics from Wellesley College and is pursuing a Master's degree in Public Policy from the Muskie School at the University of Southern Maine. She is originally from mid-coast Maine and now lives in Union. | |
Greetings from the Economics and Demographics Team.
Welcome to the latest edition of the Economics and Demographics newsletter from the Maine State Planning Office. If you have received a text version and would like to see the full version, please visit our website. Please let us know if you have any comments or suggestions. |
October Retail Sales
The Economics and Demographics Team reports monthly retail sales information on its website. Timely information on retail sales provides an up-to-date picture of Maine's economy. Many businesses use it to gauge their market strength and find new sales opportunities. Public officials use it to estimate revenues. Economists use it to project income and employment growth.
In October, total retail sales were 6.4% lower than in October 2007. Personal consumption sales, which include all sales except the business operating sector, were 7.6% lower for the same period, and -1.2% year-to-date. Through the first ten months of the year, Building Supply and Auto Transportation sales were 3.6% and 4.8% lower than the same period last year, respectively.
October 2008 Retail Sales
 Retail sales data originate in businesses' reports to Maine Revenue Services. |
Snapshot of Maine's Economy
As part of our role in staffing the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission (CEFC), the Economic and Demographics Team tracks economic indicators for Maine. In 2008, national and state economic conditions deteriorated considerably. The continued decline of the housing market, turmoil in the financial sector, and a rapid rise in energy costs reduced consumer and business spending. Despite federal interventions such as the economic stimulus package and the $700 billion bailout bill, economic conditions continued to weaken, leading to job losses, a credit freeze, and significant anxiety among consumers and business owners. The CEFC's next economic projection for Maine is due April 1st. This report will provide the base economic assumptions that the Revenue Forecasting Commission will use to estimate state revenues for the next biennium. Click here to read the most recent report from the CEFC, including the latest Maine economic forecast, and check back in April for an updated economic forecast. |
|
Reducing Maine's Tax Burden
Each January, the State Planning Office reports on the progress made by the State, counties, municipalities, and School Administrative Units (SAUs) toward reaching the tax burden reduction goal set forth in LD 1: An Act to Increase the State Share of Education Costs, Reduce Property Taxes and Reduce Government Spending at All Levels (Public Law 2005, Chapter 2). The goal of LD 1 is to lower Maine's state and local tax burden ranking to the middle one-third of states by 2015. Past reports show mixed results. Each year since 2005, growth in the State's General Fund appropriations has remained below the limit set by LD 1. Combined county and combined municipal property tax commitments have also consistently been below the LD 1 limit. However, the experience of individual municipalities and counties has varied; for example, in 2007, about 43% of municipalities and 13% of counties reported exceeding their LD 1 limit. SAUs display the most divergence from the expenditure targets set by LD 1. LD 1 established 100% of the Essential Programs and Services school funding formula as the target for local spending. For the 2007-2008 school year, fully 82% of SAUs exceeded that amount. Read the 2007 LD 1 report here, and check back later this month for the 2008 report. | |
Population Projections
There's a saying that "demographics is destiny," meaning that a business's success is determined in part simply by the number of potential customers, that a school's size depends on the number of local school-age children, and that a community's character is shaped by the characteristics of its residents. The State Planning Office helps Maine residents, businesses, and governments peer into the future by projecting population growth for individual towns and counties. At the county level, we also project population by age cohort. These figures are based on a cohort-component method that separately estimates each component of population change (birth, death, and migration) and combines these estimates to project population change into the future. The latest projections, released in February 2008, are available online: http://www.state.me.us/spo/economics/projections/index.htm. The aging of Maine's population is the driving force behind demographic change in nearly every county. Today the bulk of each county's population ranges from 40 to 60 years old. As these residents age, they face higher mortality rates and significantly lower fertility rates. In some counties, the in-migration of new residents, particularly younger people, will offset the declining effect of population aging. In other counties, the predominance of older residents will result in shrinking populations. |
Economic Impact Assessments
"Just how big is Maine's tourism industry?" "If Maine gains 1,000 hospital jobs, what effect will that have in other sectors?" "What will be the impact of closing Brunswick Naval Air Station?" The State Planning Office has two tools for answering questions like these. The first is Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS) from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. These are straightforward multipliers used to assess the secondary impact of changes in employment or earnings in different industries at one point in time. The second tool is a software package from Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI). This is a more comprehensive tool for measuring the impact of large-scale economic events over time. Based on these tools, we know that Maine's tourism industry supports nearly one in six Maine jobs (either directly or indirectly) and that 1,000 hospital jobs would support the equivalent of 825 jobs in other sectors. To view "Understanding the Impact of Closing Naval Air Station Brunswick," and other publications from SPO's Economics and Demographics team, go to: http://www.state.me.us/spo/economics/publications.htm. |
|
State Data Center News
Maine's Source for Census Data
|
|
Recent 2007 American Community Survey Release
In December 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau released the first multi-year estimates for the American Community Survey. These 3-year estimates provide demographic and social data for geographies with populations of 20,000 or more. Some examples of the data available include educational attainment, income levels, age and race. Previously, data provided by the American Community Survey had been available only for geographies of 65,000 or more. These geographies now have both single years of data and 3-year estimates available.
The first 3-year estimates will cover 2005-2007 data; new 3-year estimates will be available going forward on an annual basis (for example, in December 2009, data for 2006-2008 will be released). It is important to keep in mind that overlapping sets of 3-year estimates should not be compared. For example, 2005-2007 and 2006-2008 overlap by two years and so should not be compared. In addition, there can be significant margins of error for some estimates, so it is important to take note of these as well.
American Community Survey data are now available for 15 of Maine's 16 counties (data for Piscataquis County is not yet available) as well as for Auburn, Lewiston, Brunswick, Portland, South Portland, Bangor, Biddeford, and Sanford.
|
|
Census Highlights
- The Census Bureau is hiring! Interested in being a part of Census 2010? The Census Bureau is now recruiting around the state. For more information, or to view the job postings, visit the Boston Regional Office website or call 1-866-861-2010.
- Beginning in April 2009, the Census Bureau will update its address list -- the first major field operation for Census 2010. The Census Bureau will hire around 100,000 temporary workers across the country for this phase of Census 2010. Workers will use hand-held computers to verify, add, and delete addresses. For more information, visit the Census 2010 website.
- On December 22, 2008, the Census Bureau released estimates of state populations as of July 1, 2008. Maine's population was estimated to be 1,316,456. For more information, view the press release.
| |
|
|
|
