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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends. Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events. |
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Featured Article
America's assertion of primacy may further destabilize Asia
by Gareth Evans, IPSI Board of Advisors
China is getting closer to overtaking the United States as the world's largest economic power, and Beijing's disinclination to accept U.S. military dominance of the Western Pacific is growing ever more obvious. In this context, America's Asia-Pacific allies and friends are becoming increasingly anxious about their longer-term strategic environment. The nightmare scenario for policymakers from Seoul to Canberra is the emergence of a zero-sum game in which they are forced to choose between their great economic dependence on China and their still-eno mous military reliance on the United States.
No one believes that the U.S.-China relationship will end in tears any time soon, not least because of the mutually dependent credit and consumption embrace in which the two countries are currently locked. But the outlook a decade or two from now is already generating a mass of analysis and commentary, focusing on the tensions that have long festered in the South China Sea, bubble up from time to time in the East China Sea, and are forever lurking in the Taiwan Strait. What, if anything, can those regional countries with competing interests and loyalties do to avoid the pain that they would certainly face if U.S.-China competition turned violent? Read full article >>
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Africa
NIGERIA: 23 killed in UN bombing23 people were killed and more than 70 injured when a suicide car bomb exploded outside the UN building in Abuja on August 26. The militant Islamist group Boko Haram claimed responsibility for the attack, although their claim is difficult to verify. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and Nigerian President Jonathan roundly denounced the attack, which targeted hundreds of UN employees working in humanitarian and development agencies. Comment: Some analysts suggest that the complex attack illustrates a possible link between Boko Haram and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, which may have provided technical expertise. It may also signal a shift toward a more global focus for Boko Haram, whose stated mission is the establishment of Sharia law in Nigeria. ( Vanguard, Reuters, BBC, Economist, UN News Centre) SOUTH AFRICA: Malema hearing sparks protests in JohannesburgThousands of supporters of Julius Malema, leader of the Youth League of the African National Congress (ANC), gathered in Johannesburg on August 30 to protest Malema's disciplinary hearing on charges of sowing dissent in the party; violence erupted despite Malema's urging to refrain from targeting police and journalists. Protesters hurled bottles and rocks, while police responded with stun grenades and water cannons. ANC officials condemned the actions of the crowds who burned ANC flags and chanted "Zuma must go!" Comment: This is the second hearing that Malema, a potential challenger to President Zuma in the 2012 elections, has faced in a little more than a year. The protests mark the worst violence at ANC headquarters since 1994 and highlight growing support for Malema's calls to nationalize mines and appropriate white-owned farmland. ( Pretoria News, Reuters, BBC, AP) SUDAN: Sudan lodges formal complaint against South Sudan with the UN Security CouncilOne week after declaring a ceasefire in the Sudanese region of South Kordofan, Sudan submitted an official complaint against South Sudan with the UN Security Council. The government in Khartoum accused South Sudan of fostering unrest and offering support to rebels in the South Kordofan region, many of whom sided with the South in the country's civil war. The complaint follows reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch alleging crimes committed by the Sudanese army against the inhabitants of South Kordofan including summary executions and aerial bombardments. Comment: The conflict in South Kordofan, a mountainous region bordering South Sudan with many ethnic Nubans, is the latest source of friction between the two neighbors since South Sudan seceded in July. Although reports have stated that both sides are guilty of atrocities, most analysts place the heaviest blame on Khartoum, which is accused of ethnically-motivated violence. Sudanese officials have rejected all charges of misconduct, and the UN complaint may constitute an effort to legitimize their position. ( Reuters, BBC, AP)
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Americas
MEXICO: Drug crime in Monterrey casino On August 25, a group of armed men set fire to the Casino Royale in Monterrey, catching civilians and government officials off guard, and killing 53 people. Suspects include five individuals believed to be associated with the Zeta drug cartel, though no arrests have been made. Facing pressure, President Calderon, has turned to the U.S. in an effort to gain assistance in this continued war, saying "We're neighbors, we're allies, we're friends, but you are also responsible." Comment: The event sparked discussion on growing links between casinos and organized crime; cartels often extort casinos and other businesses, threatening to attack or burn them to the ground if they refuse to pay bribes. Attacks in a prominent, industrialized area highlight the growing drug-related violence in Mexico. The location is also a political symbol, destabilizing an area where the presidential party, National Action Party, garners strong support. ( Reuters, IPS, Voice of America, Al Jazeera) TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: Crime forces state of emergencyThe "limited" State of Emergency in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) entered its second week when PM Kamla Persad-Bissessa announced on August 30 that she intends to address the country's rapid increase in crime rates. Since the start of the policy, 800 people have been detained from certain declared "hotspots" in the country's northwest under the Anti-Gang Act passed earlier this year. Comment: The Anti-Gang Act makes it an offence to be part of a gang in T&T, punishable by a maximum of 10 years in prison and denying bail for 120 days for suspects after being charged. In her initial statement on August 21, the PM acknowledged that the crackdown may cause inconveniences in the short-term, but will create a safer environment for residents in time. ( Reuters, Guardian, Newsday, Guardian) VENEZUELA: Anti-murder campaign In the last week, authorities reported 70 murders in Bello Monte, a neighborhood in central Caracas. In response, Chavez announced a new initiative on August 25 to combat gang crime by displaying weapon-free area signs on public buses. Yet, on August 29 police in Caracas reported an additional 47 homicides in 36 hours; most of these homicides are blamed on drug-related gang warfare. Comment: Venezuela has the highest murder rate in Latin America, which has increased since the 1990s when Chavez came to power. The decision of the government to counter gang warfare with signs in buses has drawn criticism as too weak from some politicians. ( El Universal, El Nacional, El Carabobeno, Latin America Herald Tribune)
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East Asia
AUSTRALIA: High Court rules refugee swap with Malaysia unlawfulOn Wednesday, Australia's High Court struck down the government's planned refugee swap with Malaysia; the swap would have exchanged 800 UN-certified refugees processed in Australia for 4,000 processed in Malaysia over a period of four years. The ruling cited Malaysia's inability to protect the refugees since Malaysia is not a state party to the 1951 UN Refugees Convention. The Malaysian Bar Council voiced similar concerns in May regarding the lack of legal protection for refugees in Malaysia. This deal would also have provided this group of refugees with certain rights that the other nearly 100,000 refugees living in Malaysia do not have, including education and jobs. Comment: Australia receives a large number of refugees who arrive illegally by boat (so-called "boat people"), many of whom pay to be smuggled into the country. The swap was intended to combat the perception that Australia gives preferential treatment to boat people. (Malaysian Insider, BBC, NY Times)INDONESIA: Mob victim sentenced to prisonOn August 15, a victim of mob violence was convicted of disobeying police and inciting violence, and was sentenced to six months in prison. In a separate trial in July, 12 attackers, none of whom were charged with manslaughter or murder, were sentenced to six months or less for killing three people and seriously injuring six during the assault. The victims of the mob violence were members of the minority Muslim sect Ahmadiyah. Comment: Human rights activists have criticized the Indonesian government for being too lenient on violence against minority groups as well as violence against the Papuan secession movement. On August 22, the International Crisis Group released a report urging a renewal of dialogue between the Papuans after a violent two months in the remote Puncak Jaya district. (NY Times, NY Times, International Crisis Group, CNN) SOUTH KOREA: Court finds in favor of Comfort WomenOn Tuesday, South Korea's Constitutional Court ruled the South Korean government's inaction in the comfort women's dispute unconstitutional. Since 1992, an aging group of former comfort women (women forced into sexual servitude by Imperial Japan from 1910-1945) and their supporters have held over 900 weekly protests in front of the Japanese embassy in Seoul, arguing for their rights to compensation. The ruling specifically states that, "When there is a dispute between the two countries over the victims' rights to claim compensation, it is the government's duty to move toward solving the dispute." South Korea has historically been reluctant to push this issue with Japan fearing that it will create diplomatic tension between the two countries. Comment: While their impact on the court's decision is unclear, the long term protests by the comfort women are fairly well known as a result of consistent public attention to their cause. This decision could set the groundwork for other governments to play a stronger role in international disputes involving violations of their citizens' human rights by another country. (Yonhap News, Korea Times, Korea Times, Xinhua Net, AP)
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Europe & Central Asia
RUSSIA: Three suicide attacks kill nine, injure 22 in Chechen capitalSeven police officers, one emergency worker, and one civilian were killed by three suicide bombers at a police post near a parliament building in Grozny on Tuesday. Police officials tried to detain a man when he triggered the initial explosion; the other two blasts took place after police and emergency workers arrived. While no group immediately claimed responsibility for the attacks, Chechen President Kadyrov blamed the Islamist insurgency group led by Doku Umarov and specifically, Muslim Gakayev, who is Umarov's deputy in Chechnya. Comment: Doku Umarov claimed responsibility for the attack on Moscow's subway system in March 2010 and the Moscow airport bombing in January 2011. Separatist rebels have been fighting for an independent state in the North Caucasus since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. ( Moscow Times, BBC, Reuters, RFE/RL) RUSSIA: North Korea ready to resume nuclear talksOn August 24, Kim Jong Il met with President Medvedev in Siberia to discuss resuming six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program without preconditions. North Korea plans to suspend nuclear arms production and testing when the six-party talks recommence. While Russia and China have expressed firm support to resume negotiations, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea remain hesitant and first want evidence that North Korea will shut down its nuclear program. The two leaders also discussed a Russian proposal to build a natural gas pipeline to South Korea. Comment: The six-party talks between North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, Japan, and the U.S. began in 2003, but ended in April 2009 when North Korea walked out a month before conducting its second nuclear test. A nuclear agreement would bring needed development to North Korea's economy and energy sectors. North Korea's debt to Russia is estimated to be $11 billion. ( MENAFN, Moscow Times, Washington Post, Reuters) REGIONAL: EU may impose an oil embargo on SyriaToday, EU nations approved an oil embargo and other industry sanctions to those already in place on Syria for the continued government crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. Earlier this week, Russia and China disagreed with a move to impose U.N. Security Council sanctions on Syria and threatened the use of veto power if put to a vote. Russia countered these sanctions with a proposal for Syria to speed up reforms and allow time for opposition to engage in discussion with the government. President Bashar al-Assad remains defiant despite the new sanctions and calls from the U.S. and EU to step down. Comment: Travel bans and asset freezes are currently in place against pro-government and military officials and firms linked to the crackdown. Syria exports 95 percent of its oil to Europe. The EU oil embargo is expected to affect exports totaling €3 billion a year in crude oil and petroleum products to EU nations. ( Le Monde, Reuters, Guardian, Al Jazeera)
Researched/Written by Erin Bobst
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Middle East & North Africa
ISRAEL: Female soldiers asked to transfer for male recruits On Wednesday, Israeli media reported four Israeli female soldiers were ordered to leave their unit because male yeshiva recruits could be joining it. Orthodox groups of male soldiers are usually averse to serving in mixed-gender combat units "because of real concerns relating to modesty." The women soldiers protested the decision and wrote a letter to their commander expressing the harsh feelings of "humiliation and pain" this has caused them. Knesset member Rachel Adatto condemned the army's decision, saying it is "unacceptable that female recruits should suffer and lose jobs they worked hard for so Charedi soldiers could enlist." The four women already served a two-year mandatory service, and volunteered for an additional year. A military spokesman said that there is no final decision yet, and regardless of what they decide, the decision "will not affect the status and role of the female combat soldiers." Comment: Through mandatory conscription, nearly 35 percent of the Israeli military are women; however, there remains a significant opposition to females who volunteer their service, especially in combat units. Opponents of female service suggest that "the physical requirements for entering the units have to be lowered in order to allow the women in, and that injuries such as stress fractures render a large proportion of the women incapable of service within a relatively short time and other injuries they sustain may harm them for life." ( Arutz Sheva, The Yeshiva World, Jpost, JTA, JC) LIBYA: NTC "angered" by Algerian hospitality On Monday, several members of Ghadhafi's family crossed the border to Algeria, which is providing safe haven to the deposed leader's wife, Safia, his daughter Aisha, and sons, Hannibal and Mohammed, along with their wives and children. Algerian officials described the decision to accept the family as a "humanitarian gesture," even though their fate is still unclear. The National Transitional Council (NTC), which is not officially recognized by Algeria, considers hosting the family an "aggressive act," and promised to seek their extradition. Tensions escalated after the NTC previously accused Algeria of supporting Gadhafi's regime, which may have led to the Algerian embassy attack by the rebels during the battle for Tripoli. Algeria officially complained to the UN about the damages done to their embassy. Comment: While his family was accepted, Gadhafi himself is unwelcome in Algeria. During a meeting with his ministers last Monday, the Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced that his country respects all international laws in relation to the conflict in Libya. Bouteflika warned that if Gadhafi enters Algerian lands, he would be apprehended and handed over to the International Criminal Court. Gadhafi's location remains unknown. ( Aljazeera, CNN, Guardian) SYRIA: Government rejects an Arab League initiative After meeting in Cairo last weekend, the Arab League issued a statement urging the Syrian government to "end the spilling of blood and follow the way of reason before it is too late." The Arab League's secretary general, Nabil al-Araby, and the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Tunisia, and Qatar agreed to meet with President al-Assad and present him with a number of peace initiatives to help end the conflict. The proposed initiatives include "holding presidential elections, withdrawing the army from cities, releasing political prisoners and forming a national unity government." Syria rejected the offer, calling it an "intervention in Syria's internal affairs." Comment: During the meeting that lasted from Saturday until Sunday, the Arab League was split on how to intervene in Syria, and had initially agreed not to issue an official statement. Lebanon, who is now accused of backing Syria's rejection, officially declared its disagreement with the League's statement. Media reports are now linking Lebanon's Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour to Hezbollah, citing his appearance on Hezbollah-run radio and his close ties to government allies of the militant group. ( Yalibnan, Almanar, Dailystar, Aljazeera, NY Times)
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South Asia
INDIA: Anti-graft activist ends fastIndia's anti-graft activist, Anna Hazare, ended his 13-day fast on August 28 after the country's Parliament unanimously agreed to include three of his conditions in the proposed Lokpal (Ombudsman) bill. The activist's demands were to bring the lower bureaucracy under the Lokpal, set up Lok ayuktas in all states, and write citizens' charters. Hazare ended his fast by drinking coconut water mixed with honey in front of tens of thousands of supporters in New Delhi. Comment: Corruption is rampant in India and affects daily life. The 74-year old Hazare's anti-graft movement gained popular support in India by seeking to create an independent ombudsman committee with the authority to go after high-level corruption. ( Economic Times, LA Times, NDTV, South Asian News Agency) NEPAL: New Prime Minister sworn inOn August 29, Baburam Bhattarai was sworn in as Nepal's 35th Prime Minister. Bhattarai is the vice-chairman of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the leftist group that eschewed armed rebellion to enter mainstream politics. He was one of the main negotiators on behalf of the Maoists in the November 2006 peace accords. The Prime Minister was expected to expand the cabinet on Wednesday, but was unable to do so due to continuing intra- and inter-party discord. Comment: The government in Nepal continues to remain unstable due to factionalism and political infighting. Three successive Prime Ministers have resigned after only a few months in office. Meanwhile, 19,000 former Maoist guerilla fighters are yet to be rehabilitated. ( Himalayan Times, NY Times, Republica) SRI LANKA: Emergency laws end, new laws introducedOn midnight August 30, Sri Lanka's decades-old emergency laws ended after the government did not present a motion to renew the laws; President Rajapaksa announced last week that such laws were no longer required. The emergency laws curbed political and civil liberties and provided security forces with sweeping powers to arrest and detain. According to Justice Minister Rauf Hakeem, more than 1,000 suspects will likely be freed this month; however, President Rajapaksa introduced four new laws this week under the Prevention of Terrorism Act. The laws maintain the ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and a front organization and allow the government to hold an undisclosed number of rebel suspects in prison. Comment: Emergency rule has largely been in place in the country since 1983, although Sri Lanka has been under intense international pressure to end the emergency laws since the cessation of the war in 2009. The move precedes the UN Human Rights Council's session this month, which is expected to discuss alleged war crimes committed at the end of the conflict. ( Associated Press, BBC, NY Times)
Researched/Written by Megha Swamy
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