Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VII): The Syrian Regime's Slow-motion Suicide 

ICG

Desperate to survive at all costs, Syria's regime appears to be digging its grave. It did not have to be so. The protest movement is strong and getting stronger but yet to reach critical mass. Unlike toppled Arab leaders, President Bashar Assad enjoyed some genuine popularity. Many Syrians dread chaos and their nation's fragmentation. But whatever opportunity the regime once possessed is being jeopardised by its actions. Brutal repression has overshadowed belated, half-hearted reform suggestions; Bashar has squandered credibility; his regime has lost much of the legitimacy derived from its foreign policy. The international community, largely from fear of the alternative to the status quo, waits and watches, eschewing for now direct involvement. That is the right policy, as there is little to gain and much to lose from a more interventionist approach, but not necessarily for the right reasons. The Syrian people have proved remarkably resistant to sectarian or divisive tendencies, defying regime prophecies of confessional strife and Islamisation. That does not guarantee a stable, democratic future. But is a good start that deserves recognition and support.    

  

Researched/Written by  Matthew McGrath 

The Italian parliament is set to vote on a tough austerity plan that proposes €48bn ($67bn; £42bn) in cuts over three years. Bond markets cast doubt about Italy's ability to sustain its debt burden. Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) asked Italy to ensure "decisive implementation" of spending cuts. The austerity measures are designed to allay concerns that Italy, the eurozone's third largest economy, will need a bail-out from the EU and IMF. Italy currently has one of the largest budget deficits in the eurozone and hopes to avoid any need for a bail-out. The austerity plan was approved by the Senate on Thursday, and will be sent to the lower house today. Comment: Financial concerns are spreading throughout Europe this week. The IMF reported Wednesday that Greece needs another €100bn to avoid a default and projected a deeper 2011 recession than previously thought. Ratings agencies downgraded the credit status of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, raising concerns that Italy may be the next country to be hit by the eurozone's debt crisis. (BBC, Deutsche Welle, WSJ)

The Kazakh Ministry of Justice reported that on Sunday 16 prisoners blew themselves up using a homemade bomb after a shootout with prison guards during a failed jailbreak in the town of Balkhash. Interfax news agency reported the 16 convicts were supposedly "members of an organized crime group" which received arms from supporters, but failed to specify which. One guard was killed and several others were wounded. Comment: Kazakhstan has been experiencing prison unrest for several years and has come under criticism from the EU for rights abuses and other violations, including the jailing of political opponents.  Prisoners often protest prison conditions, and prisons become recruiting grounds for extremist and criminal groups. Last month, seven Kazakh guards were convicted of torturing nearly 30 inmates, and there have also been cases of prisoners setting themselves on fire. (Central Asia Newswire, RFE/RL, Al Jazeera)

Riots broke out across Northern Ireland this week amid an annual Protestant celebration that left 24 police officers injured and 26 people arrested. On Sunday, six police officers were injured when some 100 Protestants rioted and attacked Catholic homes. On Tuesday and Wednesday, more officers were injured after hundreds of Catholics throughout the province demonstrated against Protestant marches and threw petrol bombs, bricks and bottles at police. The majority of the rioting was in Belfast and surrounding areas, but violence also occurred in Derry and Armagh after Protestant parades passed through Catholic areas. Comment: Protestants annually celebrate a 17th century victory over Catholics in Ireland each year, with parades commemorating the battle and culminating in hundreds of marches on July 12. The parades usually trigger protest from Catholics, but this year was particularly violent and widespread, with children as young as 10 participating in the rioting. A 1998 peace agreement ended three decades of intense fighting between Protestants and Catholics and paved the way for a power-sharing government in Northern Ireland. Violence has subsided over the years, but small dissident armed groups are still active in the province. (Irish Times, BBC, The Guardian, Reuters)