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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.
Featured Article
Report by the Satellite Sentinel Project
  

Satellite images on SAF build-up

In recent weeks, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has deployed heavy offensive weaponry, including attack helicopters and tanks, at Muglad, the reported headquarters of the SAF's 15th Division.  These units include two helicopters consistent with Mi-24 Hind gunships, at least nine main battle tanks consistent with T-55s, and trucks consistent with support vehicles needed  for the forward deployment of heavy armor.  The helicopters, tanks and support vehicles are all within attack range of the  Abyei region, approximately 175 kilometers away from Abyei town and 100 kilometers from Abyei's border as demarcated by  the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2009.

In the past two months, Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has identified a total of at least 13 tanks newly based in South Kordofan
within 200 kilometers of Abyei. It is likely that four tanks documented by SSP at Kharassana remain concealed there.  SSP analysis of DigitalGlobe satellite imagery also reveals the recent construction of reinforced fortifications at a SAF-aligned encampment near Goli in the Abyei region and the arrival of light vehicles at that location.

The introduction of attack helicopters and main battle tanks within range of Abyei constitutes a major escalation of SAF military capacity in the area. Additionally, these deployments have occurred while recent improvements have been made to the roads north and south of the Muglad base and upgrades to the airbase's on-site fueling capacity, as SSP previously documented.

These developments are occurring at the same time as northern and southern-aligned forces remain deployed in close proximity to one another inside the Abyei region. The incursions into Abyei of northern and southern forces over the past month confirmed by SSP have been internationally recognized as violations of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) committed by both sides.  In this context, deployment of these offensive-specific capabilities within attack range of Abyei represents an additional threat to the already precarious human security of civilians in and around the region.  

 

Africa
DRC: UN plane crashes in Congo killing 32
Only one person of 33 survived Monday's crash of a MONUSCO aircraft; the UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).  The plane, which originated in Goma, crashed while attempting to land during heavy winds and rain at the Kinshasa airport. Twenty-nine UN workers were on the plane, which had a Georgian crew as well as both Congolese and foreign nationals aboard. Comment: The UN's 19,000-strong peacekeeping mission supports the Congolese government in its efforts to combat violence in the east; from 1998-2003, an estimated five million people died violently in the DRC. (BBC, CNN, Reuters)
  
IVORY COAST: Ivorian forces surround Gbagbo's home
The battle to determine Ivory Coast's next leader continued this week as forces opposed to former president Gbagbo, stormed his Abidjan residence in an attempt to capture him. "We are going to take Laurent Gbagbo out of his hole and hand him over to the president of the republic," said a spokesman for forces for Ouattara, the widely-recognized presidential winner. France sent an additional 150 soldiers to Ivory Coast this week, although they were not involved in the attack on Gbagbo's home. Comment: The offensive came after negotiations for Gbagbo's surrender broke down over his refusal to acknowledge he lost the elections. The International Committee for the Red Cross said on Saturday at least 800 people were killed in violence last week. (CNN, BBC, AP)
  
KENYA: Six Kenyans appear at The Hague
The six Kenyan political leaders accused of promoting post-election violence and committing crimes against humanity following the country's disputed 2007 elections made their first appearance Thursday before the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The Pre-Trial Chamber set the start date for the hearing for September 1, 2011.  Comment: Kenya President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga disagree about the ICC prosecutions. Last month, Kibaki challenged the jurisdiction of the ICC, asking for the trials to be held locally.  PM Odinga, however, backs the ICC, saying a local mechanism could be manipulated. According to Reuters, a majority of Kenyans side with Odinga. The post-election violence in 2007 left more than 1,200 people dead and displaced an estimated 500,000.  (CNN, Reuters, AllAfrica) 


Researched/Written
by Haja Kakay

Americas
ECUADOR: US Ambassador expelled
Tuesday, the Ecuadoran government demanded U.S. Ambassador Heather Hodges leave the country following leaks revealing Hodges' belief that there is high-level of corruption within the Ecuadoran police.  The allegations, revealed by Wikileaks, further state that Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, is aware of this corruption.  Former national police commander Jaime Aquilino Hurtado was the focus of the alleged illegal activity, which included extortion, theft of public funds, and facilitating the trafficking of illegal immigrants.  Comment: This is the most recent diplomatic incident for the U.S. in Latin America caused by Wikileaks.  Last month, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Carlos Pascual, was forced to resign.  Ecuador's foreign minister Ricardo Pati�o has eased tensions by placing the blame squarely on Hodges and not implicating the U.S. government as a whole. (AFP, Reuters, BBC)
  
HAITI: Martelly elected president
Michel Martelly won Haiti's presidential election Monday, commanding 67.57% of the vote over opponent Mirlande Manigat.  He is set to take office on May 14 after current president Preval completes his two terms.  Martelly has already vowed to ease dependency on NGOs, fix many institutional deficiencies, and indicated a desire to reinstate the military.  Comment: The results will be declared definitive after April 16, but until then are subject to challenges. The margin of victory is believed to be large enough to stave off violent protests against the outcome.  This looks to be the conclusion to a long, scandal-plagued election.  (Alter Presse, AFP, Reuters)
  
MEXICO: Mass grave discovered
A mass grave was discovered in Mexico on Wednesday just 80 miles from the U.S. border.  So far, 59 bodies have been exhumed in San Fernando, the same location where another mass grave was discovered in August.  Police made this discovery after investigating a bus hijacking, which resulted in the arrest of 11 kidnappers and the freeing of five kidnap victims.  Comment: The police attributed this violence to the Zetas, a criminal organization in Mexico dedicated mostly to the international illegal drug trade.  Protests against the drug-related violence also began Wednesday, with marches occurring in 20 cities across the country.  (AP, AFP, El Universal) 

  

Researched/Written by Michael Prather

East Asia
MALAYSIA: Malaysian authorities search for escaped asylum seekers
Malaysian police are conducting a manhunt for 109 asylum seekers who reportedly escaped from a detention center after the facility was burned down by the escapees Monday; 58 escaped asylum seekers have already been recovered. The detention facility housed approximately 540 migrants, some of whom were housed there for at least a year.  Comment: Malaysia is among a number of Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Indonesia and Australia, who receive tens of thousands of refugees, primarily from the Middle East and South Asia, via makeshift rafts and boats each year. All of these countries have been criticized for their handling of refugees, prompting Australia to build new detention centers and Thailand to review its oft-condemned detention procedures. (Malaysian Star, BBC, ABC, AP)
 
PHILIPPINES: At least seven die as law enforcement officials clash with rebels in Mindanao
Local police and members of separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) engaged in an intense firefight Thursday on Kalianta, a tiny island off the Zamboanga peninsula of the southern island of Mindanao. At least seven people are believed to be dead after law enforcement officers attempted to arrest the leader of MILF, Kamja Asdanal. The house where the rebels were hiding caught fire during the exchange, and Asdanal is believed to be one of the dead. Comment: Mindanao, and many of the surrounding islands, play host to several active anti-government rebel groups operating in the densely forested terrain. MILF, which is currently negotiating peace with the government, has waged a decades-old rebellion that has claimed tens of thousands of lives across Mindanao. (Mindanao Examiner, AFP)
  
THAILAND: Officials confirm use of cluster bombs in conflict with Cambodia
Thailand's ambassador to the UN confirmed Thursday that Thailand used cluster munitions during border skirmishes with Cambodia in February. The admission comes after the anti-cluster munitions group, the Cluster Munition Coalition, found evidence of cluster munitions on the Cambodian side of the border and reported that at least two Cambodians were killed after handling an unexploded bomb fragment. A Thai foreign ministry spokesman claimed the munitions were used in self-defense, although Thai officials had earlier denied the use of such weapons. Neither Thailand nor Cambodia is a signatory to the international treaty banning cluster munitions. Comment: The Cluster Munition Coalition condemned the use of cluster munitions by Thailand's military and expressed dismay in light of Thailand's vocal support of the international ban on anti-personnel mines. (Bangkok Post, Radio Australia, AFP) 
  

Researched/Written by Paul Rothman

Europe & Central Asia
FRANCE: Sarkozy hosts debate on Islam's role in France
On Tuesday, Nicholas Sarkozy held a three-hour discussion in a Paris hotel concerning Islam's role in French culture.  Proposals included banning the wearing of religious symbols such as Muslim headscarves or prominent Christian crosses by daycare personnel and preventing parents from withdrawing their children from mandatory subjects including physical education and biology.  Comment: France has Europe's largest Muslim population, and many religious leaders warned that the conference could fuel prejudice.  Critics charged that the meeting was politically-motivated; Sarkozy's poll numbers are low, and the meeting may have been an attempt to reunite France's fractured right-wing under the banner of "French values."  Last fall, France banned the burka. (NYTimes, France24)
  
ITALY: Berlusconi trial begins, adjourned until June
On Wednesday, the trial of Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi began, lasting only ten minutes.  Berlusconi himself was unable to attend, citing an emergency cabinet meeting on the Libyan situation.  The trial was cut short and adjourned until May 31.  Comment: Berlusconi is facing underage sex and corruption charges.  Text messages and phone conversations released this week revealed that Berlusconi had concerns about the age of the prostitute in-question. (Sydney Morning Herald, Fox News, The Independent)
  
ITALY: Boat carrying refugees capsizes; 250 missing
On Tuesday, a boat carrying refugees from northern Africa capsized in the Mediterranean.  The boat was bound for Lampedusa, Italy, a common destination for asylum seekers.  By Wednesday afternoon, up to 50 people had been rescued by the Italian Coast Guard; however, rough waters prevented further rescue attempts.  Comment:  According to Italian Interior Minister Maroni, more than 25,000 migrants had arrived in Italy without documentation so far this year, mostly through Lampedusa. The capsized boat was carrying refugees from Somalia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ivory Coast, Chad, and Sudan. Recovery of additional survivors is not expected. (DW, TheGuardian, BBC)

 

Researched/Written by Daniel Pechtol

Middle East & North Africa
BAHRAIN: Government tightens grip on citizens; enacts emergency laws
On Thursday, the Bahrainian government enacted emergency laws, allowing security forces to search private property without warrants and disband any organization deemed dangerous to the state.  At least 27 people have been killed in clashes with security forces since February.   Comment:  With the arrival of Saudi troops to support the government, Bahrain has moved closer to being a police state.  The opposition is splintered, with some calling for a move to militancy while others continue to advocate for peaceful protests.  Doctors without Borders, an international nongovernmental organization, reported that the government is using hospitals to locate injured rebels and deny health care.  (NewYorkTimes, BBC,  AFP)
 
LIBYA: NATO airstrike mistakenly kills rebels
On April 7, Libyan rebels in the eastern town of Ajdabiya were mistakenly hit by a NATO airstrike, killing 13.  The rebels were moving large amounts of heavy weaponry and tanks from the front lines, and it is unclear if NATO mistook the convoy for enemy forces.  Comment:  Last Friday, a similar airstrike in the area killed another 13 rebels after NATO planes mistook celebratory gunfire for enemy attacks.  NATO is expected to continue their campaign as planned.  (DeutschePresse, BBC, AP)
  
YEMEN: Pressure mounts for Saleh to leave office; protests continue
The U.S. shifted positions Monday regarding support for Yemen's President Saleh, now believing that he will not bring about necessary reforms to quell protestor demands. Saleh has already promised not to seek reelection in 2013 and rejected the idea of his son succeeding him, but these concessions have proven insufficient.  The Gulf Cooperation Council and Yemeni officials will meet next week in Riyadh to discuss options for Saleh to cede power.  Comment:  This week, a dozen protesters died during a clash with police.  There is concern among the international community that continued turmoil will ease conditions for al-Qaeda to operate in the country. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, Bloomberg)  

Researched/Written by Carla Avendano

South Asia
INDIA: Concerns over Chinese military presence in Kashmir
On Sunday, Indian Army Lt. Gen Paranik expressed concern over the steadily increasing presence of Chinese military in Kashmir. The commander indicated that China's link with Pakistan "adds strength" to the nexus between the two countries and is "great security concern" for India. In addition to the gradual influx of troops, China was found to be involved in the construction of numerous roads and several hydro-power projects inside Kashmir. According to Army officials, the Chinese military are increasing their forces in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Northern areas, and are now stationed along the Line of Control (LoC). The Indian commander openly questioned what China would do if violence broke out between India and Pakistan. Comment: China is a close strategic partner of Pakistan, and as many as 11,000 Chinese troops are reportedly stationed in Kashmir. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to revisit security issues with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao next week. (VOANews, Pakpasban, Times of India)
  
MALDIVES: Efforts to improve tourism security
This week, in an effort to address the increase in gang crime, piracy, and terrorism at resorts, MP Mahloof submitted an amendment to the Maldives Tourism Act that would develop and implement a security system in the resorts of the Maldives. In addition, President Nasheed opened a security seminar on April 5 calling for the travel industry and authorities not only to focus on immediate problems in the resorts, but to address the "root causes" of national crime. Comment: The president identified the increasing number of unemployed, uneducated, and disenfranchised youth in the country as the root cause of resort threats as well as other social problems including gang violence, robberies, and other offenses. While media sources report the conclusion of the security seminar, details are being withheld. Additional media reports indicate that consultations between the police, the government, and tourism insiders are ongoing. (Haamadaily, Minivan News, Haveeru)
  
NEPAL: Increasing abductions reveal layers of corruption
On March 29, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report stating that criminal gangs and other armed groups are abducting, and in some cases killing, children in Nepal's Terai region. HRW identifies extortion as the primary goal of the abductions; a motivation derived from widespread unemployment and poverty. Equally concerning, HRW and other media sources identify a general lack of attention given to the abductions by local police and district officials. According to HRW, police fail to secure the child's safety before the ransoms are paid in almost all abduction cases. News sources indicate that the children who are not found are believed to be sold into the sex business, drug trafficking, used for child labor in hotels and restaurants, or have their organs harvested. While many sources speculate that police benefit financially from the abductions, an Aljazeera interview with kidnappers reveals a financial partnership between the kidnappers, district administration, and political parties.  Comment: Although UNICEF reports more than half of Nepalese live below the international poverty line of $1.25 USD per day, ransom estimates average 500,000 rupees ($7,142). Given the increasing number of abductions and lack of investigative efforts, news reports indicate that people are beginning to lose faith in the police and law enforcement services. (HRW, Global Press Institute, Aljazeera) 

 

Researched/Written by Jennifer Clemens

April 8, 2011
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In This Issue
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Africa
Americas
East Asia
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East & N. Africa
South Asia

 

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