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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends.  Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.
Featured Article
The International Criminal Court loses credibility and co-operation in Africa 
The ICC loses credibility
EVEN fans of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague admit that its proceedings are interminable and expensive. But the court is the world's backstop for prosecuting genocide, war crimes and other enormities. Some of the ICC's troubles are longstanding. Big countries such as China, India and Russia have not signed up to its founding statute. America has not ratified it (though it is co-operating quietly).

But some troubles are new. One comes from a WikiLeaks cable on Britain's view of the ICC's highest-profile indictment, of Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir for genocide. Britain has publicly backed the indictment, which followed a mandate from the UN Security Council. But the cable suggests Britain regards it as "unhelpful"-a damning word in the mouth of a mandarin. At best, it seems, Britain sees it as a chip to be exchanged for setting south Sudan free and making peace in Darfur. That may be clever diplomacy, but it does nothing for the ICC's credibility to be seen as a pawn in a foreign power's chess game. READ FULL ARTICLE >>  
Africa

KENYA: Kibaki and envoys develop ICC deferral bid
This Wednesday, President Kibaki held a meeting with 23 UN envoys in an effort to convince the UN to defer the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases of six senior Kenyan politicians accused of organizing the post-election violence that claimed more than 1,200 lives in 2008.  In deliberations with their host countries, the envoys will emphasize two main points: (1) the cases could destabilize Kenya, threatening the security of the region; (2) the Kenyan judiciary system is currently being reformed so Kenya can try the perpetrators in-country.  Many domestic and international parties disagree with Kibaki's reasoning; 29 Kenyan political parties, including the Prime Minister, disapprove of deferral, stating it will encourage impunity and hinder the country's reform agenda.  Comment: Representatives of the U.S. and Britain, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, have issued statements saying their respective countries will likely veto Kibaki's request.  Conversely, the AU endorsed the referral, insisting that holding the trials in-country will support and strengthen local institutions.  (The Standard, Daily Nation, Capitol FM)


SUDAN: Violence in south Sudan leaves more than 200 dead
During a two day massacre in south Sudan that began on February 9, more than 200 people were killed by militia forces loyal to rebel leader George Athor.  Mostly civilians were killed in the in the attacks that occurred in Jonglei, the region's most populous state, and ended with the south Sudan army expulsing the loyalists and regaining control of captured areas.  Athor is reneging on the cease-fire he signed this January after he took up arms in 2010 when he lost the election for governor.  Comment: The increase in violence is an example of the challenges a newly independent south Sudan faces in unifying the country and improving security.  (CNN, BBC, Sudan Tribune)


UGANDA: Uganda holds presidential and parliament elections
Ugandan voters will go the polls today to vote either for incumbent Presdient Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for 25 years, or his rival Kizza Besigye, in Uganda's first presidential election since 2006.  Citizens of the country and the international community are worried that today's elections will not be free and transparent.  Museveni has been accused of vote rigging in the past, although recent polls suggest Museveni will likely secure enough votes to win another five-year term.  Comment: Besigye declared his distrust of the electoral commission and that his team will establish their own tally center to tabulate the results.  Besigye also threatened that his supporters might hold protests if his tallying results do not match official results. In response, Museveni announced he will jail anyone who tries to spark "Egypt-like" protests in the country.  (AP, The Independent, Global Post)  


Researched/Written
by Haja Kakay

Americas
COLOMBIA: Plans for alternative to the Panama Canal
On February 13, President Santos announced that Colombia and China are discussing a joint venture to provide an alternative to the Panama Canal.  The proposed project would create a "dry canal", a rail system linking the ports at Buenaventura in the Pacific to ports on the Atlantic coast.  While this proposed system would be more expensive for shippers than the Panama Canal, it would also be faster.  The China Development Bank would fund the project and the China Railway Group would operate the railway.  Comment:  Colombian officials hope that this investment in the country will promote security as well.  Colombia also gains by diversifying their trade, as they are heavily dependent on U.S. goods.  This is not the first proposal for an alternative to the Panama Canal; Nicaragua has proposed its own canal in the past.  Furthermore, the Panama Canal is currently undergoing an expansion in order to meet the rising demand.   (BBC, Reuters, El Tiempo)
  
ECUADOR: Chevron ordered to pay damages in Amazon case
A judge ruled on February 14 that Chevron must pay $8.6bn in damages, plus an additional 10 percent of that amount in reparations to the Amazon Defense Coalition and issue a public apology.  This is one of the largest environmental judgments ever handed down.  Both sides agree that oil exploration caused pollution in a region of the Amazonian rainforest.  Where their opinion differs, also the basis for the lawsuit, is the magnitude of the pollution, the degree to which Chevron is responsible for the pollution, and the scope of the problems linked to this pollution.  The plaintiffs allege that the company dumped large amounts of oil waste in the region, resulting in health issues, over 1000 deaths, and loss of livelihood.  Comment:  $5bn will go to soil restoration and $2bn will go towards healthcare.  The plaintiffs are unhappy with the ruling and will appeal in hopes of a higher settlement amount.  Chevron too will appeal, claiming that it has already spent millions on cleanup efforts and that the Ecuadorian government has absolved it of further culpability. (Reuters, BBC, El Universo)
  
MEXICO: U.S. ICE Agent killed
Two Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were attacked on February 15 along a stretch of highway midway between Mexico City and Monterrey.  Gunmen fatally wounded one agent and injured another. It is believed that the perpetrators ambushed the ICE agents at a fake military checkpoint, a tactic often employed by cartels.  It is currently unclear if and why the ICE agents were targeted.  Comment: This attack comes just two weeks after Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano warned cartel not to let their violence spill over the border.  Despite the U.S.'s support for the Mexican government, American agents are rarely the target of cartel violence.  (Milenio Diario, AFP, Reuters)  

  

Researched/Written by Michael Prather

East Asia
CAMBODIA: Cambodia calls for ceasefire agreement with Thailand at next week's ASEAN summit
At a rare press conference in Phnom Penh Thursday, Prime Minister Hun Sen called for the signing of a ceasefire agreement with Thailand during next week's ASEAN summit in Jakarta. His statement comes after the Thai-Cambodian border conflict was discussed at the UN Security Council on Monday wherein the two sides were encouraged to sign a peace agreement as soon as possible. In response on Thursday, Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, dismissed the possibility of a peace agreement in Jakarta, claiming that the Cambodian ceasefire proposal was unclear while reiterating that his country's forces did not begin the fighting. The Thai government renewed its call for the border conflict to be solved bi-laterally through the Thai-Cambodian Joint Boundary Commission (JBC). Comment: Cambodia has been especially aggressive in its diplomatic efforts over the border conflict with Thailand in part due to its long history of territorial loss to its neighbors. Additionally, the government is under domestic pressure over a controversial new land demarcation deal with Vietnam, which critics say cedes too much land to the Vietnamese.  (Bangkok Post, Xinhua, MCOT, VOA
  
INDONESIA: At least 130 Burmese refugees found stranded in waters off Aceh Province
Indonesian authorities picked up 130 refugees from a small boat in waters off the eastern coast of the country's Aceh province Wednesday. All of the people aboard the boat were ethnic Rohingya men from Burma's troubled Rakhine state in western Burma. The men were found severely dehydrated and malnourished and are thought to have been stranded for around three weeks. Comment: The Rohingyas Muslims are denied Burmese citizenship under a 1982 law and frequently report abuses by the Burmese military. Many flee across the border to Bangladesh, where at least 200,000 currently reside in refugee camps. India also recently picked up another boat of nearly 100 Rohingya refugees near the Andaman Islands, and reports suggest that it is the same group of refugees deported by Thailand last week. (Malaysia Sun, BBC, VOA)
  
PHILIPPINES: Arrest of communist leader threatens peace talks between government and CPP
Filipino security forces arrested a member of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CCP) central committee Thursday, in a village north of Manila on charges of rebellion and murder. The arrest comes as government and CCP representatives are meeting in Oslo for renewed peace talks; the first talks in six years, and the first since President Aquino was elected last year. The chief CCP negotiator criticized the arrest of Alan Jazmines and demanded that Mr. Jazmines be "released immediately and unconditionally so there will be no disruption of the formal peace talks." Comment: Despite renewed efforts toward peace, analysts are skeptical that the talks will amount to anything substantial. The CCP has a long history of reneging on peace deals and is still listed by the United States as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. (Manila Bulletin, VOA, Philippine Star)

 

Researched/Written by Paul Rothman

Europe & Central Asia
ITALY: Prosecutors will go forth with Berlusconi trial
On Tuesday, an Italian judge ruled that Prime Minister Berlusconi will be tried in Italian courts rather than by a special tribunal of his peers.  Berlusconi has now been indicted for hiring an underage prostitute and using his power to release her from police custody on a separate occasion.  On Wednesday, he said he was not worried about the outcome of the trial and wouldn't talk of it for "love of [his] country."  Comment: Public opinion of the case is split throughout Italy.  Berlusconi has stated that he was told the girl was the granddaughter of then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and he was doing him a political favor. (BBC, NYT, Adnkronos)
  
ITALY: North African refugees flock to Italy
This week, more than 5,000 Tunisians arrived by boat on the island of Lampedusa, an Italian outpost in the southern Mediterranean, closer to North Africa than Sicily. Rome wants Frontex, the EU's border agency, to help control the sudden influx of refugees.  Comment:  The Italians fear that the ousting of the Tunisian and Egyptian leaders could have a domino effect on the rest of North Africa.  Lampedusa lies just 70 miles from the coast of Tunisia, making it the first stepping stone for immigrants hoping for a new life in Europe.  The Tunisian coast guard has since increased patrols. (The Telegraph, Al-Jazeera, Adnkronos)
  
RUSSIA: Chechnya seeks UAE funding
On Wednesday, the leader of Russia's Chechnya region has asked the United Arab Emirates to invest more than $2bn in the energy and industrial sectors of the Muslim province.  Ramzan Kadyrov proposed 17 investment projects for the region of just over one million people, totaling 68.89bn rubles ($2.35bn), his press service said. The bulk of investments would go towards hydropower plants.  Comment: The Kremlin has budgeted 152bn rubles for the North Caucasus where unemployment in some areas exceeds 50 percent in the hopes of keeping youth out of the insurgency.  Fahim al Qasimi, head of the UAE's economic and international relations ministry, stated his country "has a huge wish and interest in developing relations with Chechnya." (Reuters, Gulf Times)

 

Researched/Written by Daniel Pechtol

Middle East & North Africa
BAHRAIN: Protests banned, military locks down capital
Protests were banned in Bahrain on February 17 after riot police raided a makeshift encampment of pro-reform protesters with tear gas, pellets, and rubber bullets the night before. The government ordered the military to tighten security in the capital of Manama. Security forces ring-fenced Pearl Square, the landmark city circle where the attack occurred. According to reports, three to six demonstrators died and hundreds were injured. News correspondents reported the crowd chanting, "Down with Al-Khalifa," in reference to the ruling family. Comment: Bahrain is ruled and dominated by a Sunni minority, even though it has a Shia majority population. Tensions between the two groups have worsened over the years. The government is accused of granting citizenship to thousands of Sunni workers in order to balance out the population. Pro-reform protesters initially demanded a constitutional monarchy, but are now calling for the ouster of the ruling family. (Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters)

EGYPT: Egyptians defy military call
Egyptians on February 16 defied Egypt's new military rulers' call to stop all protests. Since the overthrow of President Mubarak, Egyptians continued to air their grievances throughout the country. Workers in banking, transport, oil, media, government and other industries are demanding higher wages, an end to corruption, and better working conditions. Simultaneously, protest organizers announced during a news conference the formation of a "Council of Trustees" that would negotiate Egypt's transition to democracy with the ruling military council. Comment: The military set up a committee to amend the constitution as a prelude to parliamentary and presidential elections in six months. The military council already dismantled parliament and suspended the constitution. (Al Jazeera, The Daily News Egypt, BBC
)

IRAN: New clashes erupt during funeral
On February 16, fresh clashes erupted in Tehran during a funeral of a student killed in anti-government protests on Monday when thousands of supporters of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi took to the streets. The student, Sanee Zhaleh, was one of two people killed during Monday's clashes. Both pro- and anti-government protesters claim the fallen student was one of their own. During the funeral ceremony, police blocked all roads leading to the university and only allowed pro-government supporters to pass. Comment: Monday's demonstrations were the first since February 2010. In response to the clashes, Iranian MPs called for the two opposition leaders to be tried and executed. Both Mousavi and Karroubi are currently under de facto house arrest. (BBC, Reuters, The Christian Science Monitor) 

LIBYA: Anti- government protesters participate in "Day of Rage"
Libyan protesters took to the streets on February 17 in four cities for a "Day of Rage" after defying a security crackdown. At the same time, several hundred supporters of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya's longtime leader, reportedly gathered in Green Square in Tripoli to counter the anti-government protests. At least 14 people were killed in clashes between the two sides. Witnesses reported officials in civilian clothes using tear gas, batons, and hot water to quell the protesters. According to reports on Twitter, Libya's regime circulated text messages warning people that live bullets will be fired if they join Thursday's protests. Comment: Dissent is rarely tolerated in Libya, but protesters are frustrated over high unemployment, income inequality, and limits on political freedoms. Colonel Gaddafi has ruled for 41 years, the Arab world's largest-serving leader; however, analysts claimed an Egypt-style revolt is very unlikely considering the government can easily use oil revenues to smooth over most social problems. Libya accounts for about two percent of the world's crude oil exports. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, AFP, BBC
)
 
YEMEN: Dozens injured in clashes between pro- and anti-government protests
On February 17, several thousand Yemenis joined anti-government demonstrators on the seventh day of protest in Sanaa. Government loyalists confronted anti-government protesters with daggers and clubs while police forces fired warning shots in the air. The police arrested around 50 demonstrators on Thursday and injured dozens. A group of senior clerics called for the formation of a national unity government and elections within six months amid the recent clashes on Thursday in order to avoid violence and bloodshed. Comment: President Saleh offered concessions after the opposition coalition started organizing protests last month. Although the opposition coalition agreed to talks, the concessions were not enough. A younger group, composed mostly of university students, spearheaded the latest demonstrations to demand the ouster of President Saleh and supporters of his ruling General People's Congress. Anti-government activists are calling for a "Day of Rage" on Friday. (Al Jazeera,  Al Jazeera
, BBC, News Yemen) 
  

Researched/Written by Carla Avendano

South Asia
BANGLADESH: Finance Minister asks Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to resign
On February 15, Bangladesh's Finance Minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith called for Grameen Bank founder and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to retire.  Muhith cited Yunus' age as the primary reason, but also indicated the government would like to bring the bank under closer regulation. Pressure for Yunus' resignation began a year ago when a Norwegian television documentary sparked allegations that Yunus was using Grameen to profiteer from the poor. An investigation into the allegations by the Norwegian government found no evidence of misuse of funds or corrupt practices. Local and international media indicate that the minister's statement reflects an increasing divide between the Bangladeshi government and Yunus. Paris-based "Friends-of-Grameen" issued a statement in support of the laureates, and Chairperson of the group Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed concern that the attacks against Yunus are politically motivated. Comment: In January, the Bangladeshi government set up a review committee to look into the bank's affairs; recommendations from the committee are due in three months. Yunus pioneered microcredit financing and founded Grameen Bank nearly three decades ago in an effort to alleviate poverty; he was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in 2006. (Reuters, CNN, BD News 24)
  
INDIA: PM is "dead serious" about fighting government corruption
On February 16, Indian Prime Minister Singh responded to allegations that the Indian government lost up to $39 billion in revenue from the telecoms scandal. Recent media reports accused the government of being a "lame duck," raising questions about whether Singh will be forced to resign. Parliamentary sessions were halted by opposition protests to the scandal, paralyzing Singh's decision-making abilities, and effectively stopping the passage of reform bills.  In Wednesday's interview, Singh denied resignation rumors and reaffirmed his commitment to tackling corruption. In fact, while the Indian government initially resisted probes into the telecoms scam, media sources indicate such probes are now being considered. Comment: In his interview on Wednesday, Singh expressed concern that the rampant corruption may be weakening the self-confidence of the Indian people. While Singh boasts an 8.5 percent increase in the economy this year despite the scandals, analysts note a dramatic increase in food inflation, as well as a marked decline in foreign investments since November, especially those relating to infrastructure contracts. (Express India, CNN, Reuters)
  
SRI LANKA:  112 Indian Fishermen arrested in Point Pedro for fishing in Sri Lankan waters
On February 15, 18 trawlers containing 112 Indian fishermen from Tamil Nadu were surrounded by Sri Lankan fisherman and escorted to Point Pedro where they were arrested by police. The fishermen were caught fishing in Sri Lankan waters and were remanded by the Jaffna Magistrate court for 14 days. Indian media sources report that The High Commission of India plans to appeal to the court on Friday for the discharge of the fishermen. According to Sri Lankan reports released Wednesday, the Indian fishermen have apologized for their mistake and sought a pardon from the Sri Lankan authorities. Comment: Tuesday's arrest was the latest event in an ongoing fishing controversy festering between the two countries; in January, two Indian fishermen were allegedly killed by the Sri Lankan navy for poaching in Lankan waters. Media sources from both countries indicate that Tuesday's arrest was peaceful; while the Sri Lankan Navy supervised the escort of the 18 trawlers to Point Pedro, they did not interfere. Both media and Lankan naval sources agree that frustrated Tamil fishermen are beginning to take the law into their own hands. (Hindustan Times, Times of India, ColumboPage, The Island) 

 

Researched/Written by Jennifer Clemens

February 18, 2011
Go to IPSI's Homepage
In This Issue
Featured Article
Africa
Americas
East Asia
Europe & Central Asia
Middle East & N. Africa
South Asia

 

IPSI Symposiums 
2010 Bologna Symposium 

Busy gearing up for the 2011 Bologna, Italy Symposium on Conflict Prevention, Resolution, & Reconciliation at the Johns Hopkins SAIS Bologna Center, IPSI decided to take a fond look back at 2010 >>.

 

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IPSI News 
Jacques Paul Klein

Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein, IPSI Board of Advisors, contributes to the following discussion Can Women help make Peace Agreements Sustainable? 

 

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IPSI News 
John Prendergast

John Prendergast, IPSI lecturer, sits down for "Tea with the Economist" to discuss a Split Sudan.

 

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IPSI News 
Maria Effendi

Maria saifuddin Effendi, IPSI Bologna Symposium staff, publishes her second book, Understanding Ripeness in Kashmir.

 

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IPSI News 
Donatello Osti

Donatello Osti, IPSI Research Assistant, writes the following analytical piece: Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: Testing China's Appetite for International Negotiation.

 

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IPSI Leadership 

 

Cameron M. Chisholm

Dr. I. William Zartman 
Dr. P. Terrence Hopmann 
Alexander Little 
Nadim Salti
Pamela Aall 
Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah
Betty Bigombe 
Jan Eliasson
Gareth Evans 
Dr. Ted Robert Gurr
Amb. Jacques Paul Klein
Peter Kyle 
Dr. Jean Paul Lederach
Jeffrey Mapendere
John Marks 
Susan Collin Marks 
Dr. Joyce Neu

Dr. Valerie Rosoux 
William Stuebner 
Dr. Ruth Wedgwood

Dr. Craig Zelizer

 

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