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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends. Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events. |
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Featured Article
First Satellite Images Available of SAF Troop Deployments Near Sudan's Volatile North-South Border
 The Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP) has confirmed that the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, has deployed company-sized units of troops equipped with light armor and artillery in areas of South Kordofan around the oil-producing Abyei region and other strategic areas along Sudan's volatile North-South border. However, the project's first report also indicates that the SAF troops do not appear prepared for imminent forward movement. This provides a window for the peace process to address outstanding North-South issues which, if unresolved, could trigger renewed conflict. READ FULL REPORT & VIEW IMAGES >> |
Africa
GABON: Gabon government abolishes opposition partyOn Wednesday, Gabon dissolved the National Union Party after its leader, Andre Mba Obame, declared himself president the day before. Obame also named his own government with 19 cabinet members at his swearing in-ceremony held at the party's headquarters. Even though the constitutional court approved results showing President Ali Bongo won 41.79 percent of the vote, Obame claims he won the elections last year. Obame faces treason charges for establishing an "insurrectional government," which is in violation of the country's constitution. On Tuesday night Obame took refuge in a UN compound in the country's capital Libreville, and announced he would not leave until he had a "clear response." Comment: The situation in Gabon is the most recent example of inspired rebellion in a relatively stable country. During his swearing in-ceremony, Obame said "we are no less brave than the Ivoirians... We are no less brave than the Tunisians. History is on the march, let's go!" Two days later, Gabon security fired tear gas at hundreds of anti-government protestors and arrested 30 in Libreville. (AFP, Reuters, AllAfrica)
SOMALIA: UN report proposes special court for pirates According to a UN report released Monday, Somali pirates are spreading their attack zone and costing the global economy $7bn a year. In 2010, pirates captured a record 1,016 hostages and currently hold 31 vessels and 713 crew members from various countries. The study calls for the deployment of security and legal weapons, including the creation of a new court, located outside Somalia, which will try pirates under Somali jurisdiction. The court is considered necessary, citing that nine out of ten pirates are released due to the lack of an appropriate judicial system. The cost of setting up the court, new prisons, and the judicial system is estimated at $25mil. Comment: As piracy continues to expand the international community is employing more aggressive military attacks. Last Friday in separate raids, Malaysia and South Korea overpowered pirates, rescued workers, and seized stolen ships; the South Korean team killed eight pirates. If created, the special court will provide an alternative non-violent means for dealing with pirates. (AFP, AllAfrica, AP)
SUDAN: U.S. ready to normalize ties with Sudan This week, the U.S. State Department released a statement saying that the President has "reaffirmed U.S. willingness to take steps toward normalization of relations, as Sudan meets its commitments under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement." On January 26, Foreign Minister Ali Karti met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington to discuss what both sides need to do to restore ties. The U.S. offered to ease sanctions on Sudan and remove it from the U.S. blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism. Comment: Although the U.S. is prepared to normalize ties with Sudan, the Obama administration has insisted it will not overlook Darfur. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters that Darfur "is a critical importance in terms of our ability to... normalize relations with Sudan." In response to the recently deteriorating situation in Darfur, the U.S. told peacekeepers to be more "aggressive" in protecting civilians. (AFP, Reuters, VOA)
Researched/Written by Haja Kakay
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Americas
COLOMBIA: Mine Blast kills 20An explosion, most likely caused by a buildup of methane gas, killed 20 miners and injured six in La Preciosa mine on Wednesday January 26. This accident marks another tragedy for the Latin American mining industry. In a gesture of solidarity, Chile is sending a group of rescuers to help in the recovery effort. In the aftermath of the explosion, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Carlos Rodado Noriega, indicated that the mine will remain closed indefinitely. Colombia is one of the world's top coal exporters, and the mining industry has been an important economic staple for the country. Comment: In addition to the Chilean mining disaster in August, there have been further mining incidents in South America, including two in Colombia. In June, an explosion killed 70 miners, and in November, nine miners were killed in two small coal mines. (El Tiempo, Reuters, AFP)
HAITI: Ruling Party to pull out of Election On Wednesday, the ruling party withdrew its support for their candidate, Celestin, due to reports by election monitors that the first round was rigged in his favor; however, he has not issued a statement indicating that he would step down. If Celestin pulls out of the election, there will be a run-off vote between Mirlande Manigat and Michel Martelly. The increased scrutiny over the voting results was forced after Martelly supporters objected to the original findings that showed Celestin in second place behind Manigat. Martelly supporters asserted that the government fixed the results so that Celestin would make it to the second round. Experts from the Organization of American States (OAS) ruled in favor of Martelly, recommending that Celestin drop out of the race. Comment: Celestin is resisting withdrawal, but is facing pressure from the international community. Haiti is in a vulnerable situation during its rebuilding stage, and aid donors have threatened to pull their donations if the recommendation of the OAS is not followed. The result of this election will directly influence the efficacy of Haiti's recovery. (Alter Presse, Reuters, BBC)
LATIN AMERICA: Obama to visit three countries U.S. President Obama announced, in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, that he plans to make his first official visit to Latin America in March. His trip will include visits to Brazil, El Salvador and Chile. Obama hopes to shore up ties with countries in the region as he did with his trips to Asia. Economic stability and renewable energy issues are expected to be high on the agenda. China's relationship with the region is also perceived to be a factor in this trip. China surpassed the US as Brazil's top trade partner in 2009 and usurped the US as Chile's largest export market. Comment: Obama's trip falls on the anniversary of Kennedy's Alliance for Progress, a plan designed to foster economic growth in South America. It should be noted that Colombia, one of the largest recipients of U.S.'s aid, is not on the itinerary. (AP, The Washington Post, O Globo)
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East Asia
AUSTRALIA: Arrest made in Indonesia in connection with Christmas Island boat wreck
On January 27, Indonesian authorities arrested an Australian citizen, of Iranian descent, who allegedly organized the smuggling of 90 people on a boat bound for Australia; the boat crashed into the rocky coastline of Australia's Christmas Island in December, killing at least 48 people. The passengers were all of Iranian, Iraqi and Kurdish origin and are thought to be one of many previous groups organized by the suspect in a major human trafficking ring. In addition to Wednesday's arrest in Indonesia, Australia officially charged three crew members from the wrecked boat with human trafficking offenses. Comment: It is not yet clear whether the Australian government will request extradition of the suspect for trafficking charges in Australia, but Indonesian Police spokesman Boy Rafli Amar bluntly rejected the possibility of extradition stating that "everyone who violates the law in Indonesia will be legally processed in Indonesia.'' Indonesia has no human trafficking laws; therefore, the suspect will most likely face immigration charges which carry shorter prison terms if convicted. (The Sydney Morning Herald, BBC, The Herald Sun)
PHILIPPINES: Bus bombed in central Manila
A deadly bomb exploded on a city bus in Manila's financial district on January 25 killing at least five people and injuring at least 14 others. Authorities believe the bomb was detonated remotely, a method commonly used by rebels in the long-troubled southern island of Mindanao. President Aquino II said "all government agencies, including the intelligence services, would not stop until everyone involved in this heinous crime is accounted for." Comment: Muslim insurgents and Maoist rebels are active in certain areas of south and central Philippines. The bombing came about three months after a number of foreign embassies warned of a heightened risk of attacks in the Philippines, including the capital. The government said the warnings had not been warranted. (Manila Bulletin, BBC, CNN)
THAILAND: Yellow Shirts protest against government handling of border issue Around 2,000 nationalist Thai "Yellow Shirts" rallied in Bangkok on January 27 to demonstrate against the government's handling of a border dispute with neighboring Cambodia. Protests intensified after Cambodian authorities arrested seven Thais, including one "Yellow Shirt" activist, in December on illegal entry, trespassing and spying charges. In response, protesters are calling for Prime Minister Vejjajiva to revoke a recent border agreement with Cambodia. Comment: The "Yellow Shirts" helped bring down former President Shinawatra in 2008, bringing to power the current government; however, relations between the "Yellow Shirts" and Prime Minister Vejjajiva have since soured. Some Thai observers suggest that the most recent protests have been partly motivated by weakening support of Vejjajiva's government. The Thai-Cambodian border issue has plagued bi-lateral relations for decades. (The Irawaddy, AFP, BBC)
Researched/Written by Paul Rothman |
Europe & Central Asia
RUSSIA: Suicide bomber attacks Russian airport
Approximately 30 were killed and another 150 injured when a suicide bomber struck a crowded airport outside of Moscow on January 24. Passengers were waiting in baggage claim at approximately 1630hrs local time when a bomb packed with nails, ball bearings, and other pieces of shrapnel exploded. No organization has claimed responsibility yet, but initial analysis indicates the attack was perpetrated by a "Black Widow;" a woman from the North Caucasus who lost her husband to Russian security forces. Comment: Last month, a series of violent anti-Slavic protests took place throughout the country. With Russia set to host the 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 World Cup, militants will likely attempt to destabilize the region further. (AFP, ITAR TASS, RIA Novosti)
RUSSIA: Moscow ratifies New Start
On January 26, the Russian parliament ratified the New Start treaty, aimed to reduce the number of nuclear warheads to 1,550. To become official, the treaty must be signed by President Medvedev. The treaty replaces the 1991 START treaty, which expired at the end of 2009. Comment: The parliament also ratified stipulations which would allow Russia to withdraw from the treaty, including if the United States builds a missile shield without joint Russian-U.S. approval. (Prime Tass, RIA Novosti, ITAR TASS)
SWITZERLAND: World Economic Forum opens in Davos
The World Economic Forum opened in Davos, Switzerland on January 26, with 2,500 senior economic power-brokers on hand. Topics range from China opening up the yuan to President Medvedev speaking on the need to combat extremist violence. The meetings will last until Sunday. Comment: President Medvedev's trip was delayed because of the bombings at Demodedovo airport, which may account for his highlighting of the extremist issue. A small explosive device also detonated in a nearby hotel, causing only minor damage and no casualties. (AFP, Herald Sun, Reuters)
Researched/Written by Daniel Pechtol |
Middle East & North Africa
EGYPT: Clashes with security forces continue; curfew imposed
Violent protests calling for the resignation of President Mubarak escalated today throughout Egypt, and the government responded by ordered a night curfew from 1800hrs to 0700hrs in Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez. The clashes between police forces and protesters angered over surging prices, lack of jobs, and dissident crackdown are a continuation of Tuesday's "day of anger" that ignited Egypt's current situation. The protests gained momentum with yesterday's arrival of Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and political rival to President Mubarak, who is now reportedly under house arrest. ElBaradei claimed he is ready to "lead the transition" in Egypt if young people want him to. Comment: Egypt is a vital ally and supporter of the U.S. Middle East policy and is a central player in many peace initiatives, although Washington is now reportedly advising Mubarak to usher in reform in response to the protests. Egypt is one of the biggest beneficiaries of U.S. military aid. (AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, AFP, AP)
LEBANON: Hizbollah-backed Mikati appointed as new Prime Minister
Calm returned to Beirut on January 26 after two days of intense protests during the formation of a new government. President Michel Sleiman formally appointed Najib Mikati as prime minister-designate on Tuesday. Mikati, backed by Hizbollah, gained 68 votes to Hariri's 60. Mikati pledged to form a unity government; however, Hariri and his political allies claimed they will not take part of the new government. Comment: Sunni Muslims angered by the defeat of Hariri and the rising power of Syria and Hizbollah in Lebanon protested against Mikati's nomination by burning tires and blocking roads. Officials in Washington announced they will consider cuts or realignment to political, economic, and military aid to Lebanon if Hizbollah takes a major governmental role. (Al Jazeera, Reuters, BBC)
TUNISIA: International arrest warrant for ousted president
The interim government issued an international arrest warrant on Wednesday for ousted President Ben Ali and his family on accounts of theft and currency offenses. Tunisian government asked Interpol to find Ben Ali and six others for a trial to be held in Tunisia. Interpol confirmed that it issued a global alert to its member countries for the search, location and arrest of Ben Ali and his family. Comment: Tunisia froze all assets held by Ben Ali and his family who are widely accused of abusing their power to enrich themselves. Meanwhile, hundreds of demonstrators continue to demand that members of the interim government who served under Ben Ali step down, including Prime Minister Ghannouchi. (AP, BBC, Al Jazeera)
YEMEN: Thousands rally against the President
Thousands of Yemeni opposition members and youth activists gathered on January 27 in Sanaa chanting anti-government slogans and calling on President Saleh to step down after 30 years of rule. Over the weekend, hundreds of Sanaa University students held competing protests, some supporting the president, while others called for his removal. Demonstrations have been peaceful and have lacked a heavy police presence. Comment: Yemenis are concerned with escalating poverty among the young population, lack of political freedoms, and loose rules on presidential term limits. Yemen is currently experiencing a range of security issues, including a separatist movement in the south and an uprising of Shia Houthi rebels in the north. (BBC, Al Jazeera, The Christian Science Monitor, Reuters)
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South Asia
AFGHANISTAN: President Karzai inaugurates ParliamentOn Wednesday, President Karzai inaugurated the lower house of parliament, despite his earlier declaration that he would put the move on hold for another month while election disputes were resolved. President Karzai was reportedly under pressure from newly elected MP's who argued that the tribunal created to investigate last year's election fraud was unconstitutional; legislators threatened to begin work with or without presidential consent. Karzai released a statement saying he wanted to postpone the inauguration, but was pushed into moving forward by "foreign hands." The swearing in of the 249 members of the lower house means that, for the first time since the elections, there are three working branches of government in Afghanistan, and with them, a check on Karzai's power. Comment: Following last year's election, one quarter of the five million ballots cast were thrown out and 24 of the early winners were disqualified. While parliament members are reportedly required to abide by the findings of the tribunal, many legislatures argue they have no such obligation. Panel judges of the court intend to pursue cases against 59 winning candidates. (Aljazeera, NY Times, BBC)
PAKISTAN: Shia targeted in Lahore and Karachi blasts On Tuesday, separate attacks in Lahore and Karachi targeted Shia Muslim processions, killing at least 16 and injuring close to 100 people. In Lahore, a 16 year-old suicide bomber blew himself up near a Shia religious procession mourning the death of the Prophet Mohammad's grandson, Imam Hussain. Approximately 90 minutes later, during a similar procession in Karachi, a motorcycle bomb detonated killing at least four people and injuring several others. Fiddayan Islam claimed responsibility for the attack in Lahore, but the group responsible for the bombing in Karachi remains unknown. Sectarian violence is on the rise in Pakistan, with most recent attacks said to be the products of Sunni militants responding to al-Qaeda and Taliban influence. President Zardari, Premier Gilani, as well as Pakistan's Foreign Prime Minister and the heads of all the political parties spoke out to condemn the blasts. Comment: Pakistani officials fear that as Taliban influence in the northwest intensifies, violent sectarian groups will become more active. Despite tough policing in Karachi, law enforcement is having a difficult time quelling Sunni-Shia tensions.(BBC, Aljazeera, Pak Tribune)
SRI LANKA: Terror Campaign in Jaffna
According to local Tamil sources, killings, abductions, and disappearances of social and political activists in the Jaffna peninsula are on the rise. Last week, a director of education was killed, sparking rumors that his death was the result of anti-government behavior. Tamil media sources posit that the "terror campaign" is a strategic move by President Rajapaksa to establish a Sinhala-dominated economy in Tamil areas in order to rule through local proxies. Comment: The civil war officially ended in 2009, although Tamil sources indicate that current repression is similar to wartime levels. Stories in the Sri Lankan media are extremely difficult to corroborate due to the biased and emotionally-charged nature of publications. If conditions continue to worsen for the Tamil people, some sources argue a return to violence is likely. (Sri Lanka Guardian, Tamilnet, Eelanatham)
Researched/Written by Jennifer Clemens
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IPSI Symposiums
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