Peace & Security Report

International Peace & Security Institute

PEACE & SECURITY REPORT

IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends. Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events.

Featured Article

The Next Tunisias: Five Arab states that are ripe for revolution
Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been president of Algeria since 1999. In 2009, he amended the constitution to allow himself to run for a third term and was overwhelmingly reelected in a contest that was boycotted by the opposition. Concerns have recently been raised about the 73-year-old president's health -- the state of which is a carefully guarded state secret -- and there are rumors that his brother is looking to succeed him. READ MORE >>

Originally published in Foreign Policy 1/19/2011

Africa

DR CONGO: Lt. Col. Mutware and 8 soldiers accused of New Year rapes in Congo
This week, Lt. Col. Kibibi Mutware was identified by victims as the commander who directed a Congolese army to rape dozens of women in eastern DR Congo on New Year's Day. Eight soldiers were arrested for the rapes in the town of Fizi which began after a dispute between rival ethnic groups ended in murder. Fifty women reported being assaulted, and officials expect the numbers to rise as women who fled return home. Mutware denied the accusations and has been transferred to another post. Comment: Although there have been numerous allegations of mass rape throughout the Congolese conflict, this is believed to be the largest single incident allegedly involving the army. Rape damages fundamental institutions like family units and community structures. The DR Congo has faced instability for more than 16 years, and the rape of women serves to lengthen and intensify the country's hardships. (MSNBC, BBC, VOA)

IVORY COAST: Security Council sends 2,000 troops to Ivory Coast

On January 19, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to send 2,000 peacekeepers to Ivory Coast, bringing the total number of troops in the country to 11,000. The decision was made following last week's attacks on UN vehicles and troops in addition to failed mediation talks with Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Oding. Prime Minister Oding was rejected as a mediator because Gbagbo believed he was not neutral and sided with Ouattara. The peacekeepers are mandated to protect citizens and President-elect Alassane Ouattara, who is currently in a hotel blockaded by Gbagbo's forces. Comment: The additional troops are entering a hostile environment which may worsen as the international community prepares to take proactive measures to remove Gbagbo. West African military leaders are meeting in Mali to discuss a possible military intervention, and the Economic Community of West African States has already threatened to use "legitimate force." The UN also issued a statement which told Gbagbo that time is running out for peaceful negotiations. (CNN, Reuters, AP)

SOUTH AFRICA: South Africa declares flood disaster

The heavy rains in South Africa that began mid-December have left 50 dead, and displaced more than 6,000 people. Ten people have also died in floods in neighboring Mozambique and more than 10,000 people have been evacuated from their homes. On January 18, South Africa declared eight out of its nine provinces as disaster zones, and more rain is forecasted for the country. Comment: The damage to infrastructure and the agricultural sector will continue to cost South Africa millions; the damages have already totaled $51 million. South Africa will have to depend on its resources and international funding to repair flood-affected areas. (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg)

SUDAN: Early poll results show overwhelming vote for independence

Early results this week from southern Sudan's independence referendum showed an overwhelming vote for secession. According to full preliminary results, three southern Sudanese states and the region's capital city have voted for independence by a landslide. On January 16, President Obama congratulated Sudan on the peaceful vote in a statement that said "the sight of so many Sudanese casting their votes in a peaceful and orderly fashion was an inspiration to the world and a tribute to the determination of the people and leaders of south Sudan to forge a better future." The UN Security Council also praised Sudan for holding transparent, free, and fair elections. Comment: Sudan's ruling party in the north said Friday that it is ready to accept southern independence. Throughout the referendum, voters illustrated their dedication to peace, although that commitment will soon be tested as major issues such as border demarcation, oil rights, and the status of the contested region of Abyei are negotiated. (MSNBC, VOA, BBC)

Researched/Written by Haja Kakay

Americas

BRAZIL: Deadly landslides spur scrutiny on disaster preparedness
In the wake of the deadly landslides and flooding in the state of Rio de Janeiro last week, President Rosseff announced new plans to improve disaster readiness. Measures for improvement include enhanced training, better weather data to mitigate surprise, and superior mapping of areas that are vulnerable to disaster. The timetable for these improvements is four years, but officials hope to see benefits in as early as one year. Comment: With more than 700 dead, at least 200 missing, and 13,000 displaced, the recent floods and landslides have been the most devastating natural disaster in Brazil's history. Money dedicated to disaster relief has often trumped money dedicated to disaster prevention. Last year only one third of money dedicated to disaster prevention was actually spent. (The Economist,NY Times , Reuters)

HAITI: Former Dictator Formally Charged

Jean-Claude Duvalier, known as "Baby Doc", emerged from exile on January 16, returning to Haiti for the first time since he fled 25 years ago. Haitian prosecutors quickly filed charges of corruption and embezzlement on the former president. These charges reflect actions taken by Duvalier before he fled the country, including about $4.6 million Duvalier's family had hidden in a Swiss bank account. The charges Duvalier faces are relatively light considering that many hold him responsible for a multitude of human rights violations that occurred during his rule, including disappearances, torture and false imprisonment. It is unclear if Duvalier can be charged for these crimes or if the statute of limitations has passed. This has not stopped four victims from stepping forward and filing formal complaints against the former dictator. Comment: Duvalier took control of Haiti at 19, succeeding his father Francois Duvalier who also ruled as a dictator. The divisiveness that Duvalier elicits comes at an inopportune time as Haiti tries to focus on rebuilding one year after the devastating earthquake. (NY Times, The Guardian, ReutersMiami Herald)

MEXICO: Drug Kingpin Arrested

Federal police arrested Flavio Mendez Santiago on January 17. Santiago, number 29 on Mexico's most wanted list, is the alleged co-founder of Los Zetas, one of the most powerful drug cartels in Mexico. Santiago ran operations in Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz and was also responsible for the smuggling of illegal migrants from Central and South America to northern states in Mexico. Santiago is responsible for the spread of Los Zetas activity into Guatemala. As a result, the Guatemalan troops and the drug cartel are involved in an ongoing boarder conflict. Comment: Los Zetas began as a paramilitary group working for the Gulf cartel until they split and formed their own drug cartel. Battles between competing cartels have left more than 34,000 dead since President Calderon initiated an offensive against traffickers in 2006. (NY Times, LA Times, Miami Herald)

Researched/Written by Michael Prather

East Asia

AUSTRALIA: Flooding continues to ravage southeastern Australia
Flooding continues to wreak havoc throughout Victoria province in southeastern Australia as several additional towns were evacuated this week, leaving residents remaining in vulnerable areas stranded. Since the flood crisis began last week in the northwest of Victoria, 72 towns have been hit, nearly 30 relief and recovery centers established, and an estimated 4,300 people affected by the floods. In addition, Victorian Agriculture Minister Peter Walsh said Thursday that the flooding damage could cost the farming industry roughly 2.5 billion Australian dollars. Comment: Floodwaters are anticipated to peak Friday morning, but are expected to continue to affect much of the province for another 10-12 days. (The Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian, BBC)

TAIWAN: Major missile test sees mixed results

The Taiwanese military tested 19 surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles Tuesday, January 18; the first major test open to the media since 2002. The tests produced mixed results as 6 missiles missed their targets or failed to detonate. The missile test was attended by top Taiwanese government officials, including President Ma, who stated he was "unhappy" with the results and urged the military to improve its training. A Defense Ministry official stated that there will likely be a second round of tests in the second half of the year, but a date has yet to be set. Comment: The missile tests were carried out as Chinese President Hu arrived in Washington D.C. for a state visit and only one week after a video was released of China's new stealth fighter jet; however, the timing is widely perceived as coincidental. (Taipei Times, AFP, New York Times)

THAILAND: Four soldiers killed in rebel raid on military compound

On Thursday, January 20, Between 30 and 50 armed rebels stormed a Thai military camp in southern Narathiwat province, killing 4 soldiers and injuring several others. Islamic insurgents in southern Thailand have waged an armed campaign for increased autonomy since 2004, resulting in the deaths of over 4,000 people. In response to the latest attacks, the Thai government extended emergency rule over much of the Muslim-dominated south, amid persistent concerns over the level of authority given to the military. Comment: Not much is known about rebel forces in southern Thailand, and prior attacks have been limited to isolated drive-by shootings and bus-bombings; thus, Thursday's raid on the military camp is considered unprecedented for its highly-coordinated nature. (Bangkok Post, VOA, BBC)

Researched/Written by Paul Rothman

Europe & Central Asia

RUSSIA: Over twenty arrested at rally for slain lawyer and reporter

Police arrested 21 demonstrators on January 19, who were attending a memorial rally for Russian human rights lawyer, Stanislav Markelov. Suspected neo-Nazis gunned down Markelov two years ago in the center of Moscow. The majority of those arrested were wearing masks and released Chinese lanterns into the air as a symbolic gesture during the rally. Comment: Russia has seen a series of murders of human rights lawyers and journalists over the last few years. The country is ranked as one of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists. (RIA Novosti, AP)

SERBIA: EU Parliament passes EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement

On Wednesday, the EU Parliament passed its EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement by a vote of 612 to 38. The agreement is a step towards Serbia's joining the EU and qualifies Serbia for a large increase in pre-accession funds. The EU parliament also adopted a resolution which states further progress into accession will depend on Serbia's ability to track down remaining war criminals. Comment: This agreement is a positive step for Serbia, but the country still has a great deal of progress to make before becoming an EU member candidate; the most prominent being the capture of the two remaining war criminals for the ICTY. (Europolitics, Adnkronos, IEWY)

SPAIN: Ten arrested in raids against ETA

On January 18, the Spanish government detained ten suspects with ties to the separatist group Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA). The detainees are thought to belong to Ekin - a group founded in 1999 to coordinate and support ETA's activities - and are also believed to have ties to ETA leadership. Comment: In the fall, ETA announced a ceasefire and extended it further last week by calling it permanent and certifiable by the international community. The Spanish government has stated it will accept nothing less than an unconditional military surrender and has so far maintained its hardline stance. (Barcelona Reporter, Deutsche Welle, BBC)

Researched/Written by Daniel Pechtol

Middle East & North Africa

ALGERIA/EGYPT/ MAURITANIA: Self-immolation spreads across N. Africa

The Tunisian revolt erupted after the December 17 self-immolation of 26 year old Mohammed Bouazizi. Copycat acts have spread across North Africa: five in Egypt; four in Algeria; and one in Mauritania. In Egypt, two men set themselves ablaze near a parliament building in Cairo. In Algeria, where riots have run parallel to the unrest in Tunisia, four men set themselves on fire in the last five days. In Mauritania, a wealthy company director staged a self-immolation protest after alleged government mistreatment of his tribe. Comment: Self-immolation is a form of non-violent protest which is neither new nor unique to North African countries. The increase in the suicide attempts comes during a time when the region is experiencing poverty, soaring prices, frustration, and lack of employment.(Al Jazeera, Reuters, Reuters Africa)

EGYPT: Arab countries pledge money to boost economy and society

Arab leaders held an economic summit in Egypt this week to address the region's economy, cooperation, technology, and development issues amid the popular uprising in Tunisia. Arab leaders are expected to commit to a proposed $2bn program intended to bolster faltering economies. A special fund will be set up in two weeks to operate as a bank providing short and long term loans to young Arabs who want to start small businesses; projects Arab leaders hope will increase employment. Comment: This type of idea was first suggested by Kuwait during the economic summit in 2009, but many of the league members were unable to pledge money. As a result of the Tunisian revolt and other regional disturbances, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait promised to pay $500m each; however, Arab leaders denied any similarities with Tunisia in respect to economic and political grievances in their countries. (Al Jazeera, Ahram, AFP)

LEBANON: Mediation parties drop from talks
On January 19, Saudi Arabia officially abandoned efforts to mediate Lebanon's political impasse following Hizbollah's withdrawal from the government last week. Saudi officials claimed the political crisis has the potential to disrupt the relatively peaceful coexistence between religions, ethnicities, and political factions in Lebanon. The foreign ministers from Turkey and Qatar followed suit by suspending their mediation efforts after two days of intensive talks with rival parties. Comment: According to Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president must be Christian Maronite, the prime minster a Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker a Shia Muslim. Prime Minister Hariri, currently ruling a caretaker government, is backed by Western powers, while Hizbollah is supported by Iran and Syria.(Al Jazeera, Now Lebanon, Al Jazeera, Daily Star)

TUNISIA: Interim government holds first session

Tunisia's interim government held its first session on January 20 amidst continual protests over inclusion of members of the former ruling Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party. Hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the RCD headquarters demanding that ministers associated with ousted President Ben Ali leave the government. RCD's central committee dissolved, but the party will continue to operate. The transitional cabinet plans to recognize all banned political parties, grant amnesty to political prisoners, and prepare for new presidential elections. Comment: Ben Ali fled into exile in Saudi Arabia on January 14 after a popular uprising ousted him from office. Prosecutors launched an assets inquiry into the affairs of Ben Ali and family members; at least 33 members of his family have subsequently been arrested on "suspicion of crimes against Tunisia." (Al Jazeera, NPR, Magharebia, Al Jazeera)

Researched/Written by Carla Avendano

South Asia

BANGLADESH: Violence shuts down polls
On January 17, violence, intimidation, beatings, and ballot stuffing at municipal polls in Chittagong and Sylhet caused the Electoral Commission (EC) to close 17 of the 25 polling centers in Senbagh and Noakhali. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) raised concerns over vote-rigging and captured polls, demanding re-elections in some municipalities. Election Commissioner M. Sohul Hussain noted that poll violence was markedly worse now than in the earlier phases of the municipality elections, assuring that the commission has already taken initiatives to resolve complaints made by the opposition party. Comment: BNP leaders and supporters hold ruling party (Awami League) activists responsible for the violence. Although this municipality election has been primarily peaceful, violence, irregularities, and manipulation were commonplace in the 2004 elections. While the EC is disappointed with the recent violence, the commission has expressed satisfaction that the political culture is improving. (Bangladesh News, The Daily Star, The Bangladesh Today)

INDIA: India and Bangladesh discuss border security

This Wednesday, senior officials from India and Bangladesh began formal talks to address border-related security issues. The talks come after India's Border Security Force (BSF) announced it would strengthen border security with the use of Dhruv light helicopters, mine protected vehicles (MPV), and other militarized devices. In Bangladesh, public anger is on the rise after continued killings along the Indian border, most recently due to the death of a 15 year-old Bangladeshi girl shot by Indian border officials. While India maintains that only drug smugglers, human traffickers, and illegal immigrants are targeted, the country is taking measures to reduce the number of casualties. In addition to night vision equipment, the BSF plans to introduce nonlethal weapons like batons, rubber bullets, water cannons, and tear gas. Comment: India and Bangladesh share 2,979 km of land border, and 1,116 km of riverside boundary. India is currently working to erect a fence along the India-Bangladesh border, with approximately 2,500 km of fence complete; work on the remaining portion is expected to finish in March 2012. (BBC, The Assam Tribune, The Ahmedabad Mirror)

SRI LANKA: Violence breaks out over flood aid

On January 16, hundreds of people in Arayampathy turned violent over the perceived inequitable division of flood aid. After many families reported receiving no relief aid, villagers discovered undistributed supplies in a government office, and subsequently demanded that police arrest the area's divisional secretary for misappropriation. A spokesman for the area estimated there are still between 4,000 and 5,000 people in the Eastern Province in urgent need of relief supplies who have not yet received aid. Tensions continue to rise amid accusations that local politicians prioritized food and aid to their supporters, rather than those most needy. Thus far, area representatives maintain that demonstrators were given due rations; however, the Eastern Provinces Chief Minister called for a full-fledged investigation into the misappropriation. Comment: Reports indicate that as many as 325,000 people have been displaced as a result of the floods, with an estimated 21 percent of Sri Lanka's rice crop destroyed by the rainfall. Damage assessments raise additional concerns over food supply shortages and inflation; UN officials arrived in Sri Lanka Wednesday to assess humanitarian needs.(The Island, Reuters, BBC)

Researched/Written by Jennifer Clemens

January 21, 2011