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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends. Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events. |
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| Featured Article
Redefining Success: Applying Lessons in Nuclear Diplomacy from North Korea to Iran
by Ferial Ara Saeed
 This study attempts to draw lessons from two decades of efforts to alter the nuclear policies of North Korea and apply them to Iran. North Korea and Iran are very different states that share one critical similarity: decades of estrangement from the U.S. and the international community. They also play destabilizing roles in their respective regions and are catalysts for tactical and strategic changes in these regions.
"Washington needs a more promising strategy," the study argues, in order to achieve important short-term goals of improved nuclear transparency in North Korea and Iran, and of securing their vulnerable nuclear materials -- goals deemed critical to U.S. national security in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Current policy, however, focuses on the longer-term goal of denuclearization, which has allowed both states to advance their nuclear programs. READ MORE >>
Originally published by the Center for Strategic Research |
Africa
ANGOLA: Hundreds raped following expulsionAngola expelled up to 7,000 illegal immigrants to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the last two months; the majority of those expelled being from the DRC. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) first learned of the expulsions on October 23, when they were alerted by nongovernmental organizations working in the area. Reports are now surfacing that since the expulsion more than 700 refugees -- including men, women, and children -- were raped. The UN Special Representative for Sexual Violence in Conflict is calling for a full investigation by both Angola and the DRC. Comment: Sexual violence in the DRC is commonly in the news, although generally in the east of the country. Refugees sent back to the DRC from neighboring countries are often detained at the border and not allowed to cross, leaving them vulnerable without shelter or protection. (ISRIA, AFP, UNNewsService, RFI)GUINEA: First-ever election heldAfter multiple delays, Guinea held the first presidential election in the country's history on November 7. The election, a run-off to the primaries held in June, was pushed back several times in recent weeks, causing increased tension in the country. Initial returns, released on November 11, indicated Alpha Condé leading Cellou Dalein Diallo. Condé won 18.63% of the vote in June to Diallo's 43.6%. Diallo has already protested the current returns, while junta leader General Sekouba Konaté urged calm until the final counts are in. Comment: Observers lauded the peaceful elections, although stability may be fragile as ethnic tensions are still apparent; however, should the peace hold and Guinea avoid a return to violence, these elections will mark an historic step forward for the country. (AllAfrica, UNNewsService, RFI, CNN)NIGERIA: Fresh violence in the DeltaFive oil workers were kidnapped off a shallow-water drilling platform on November 8. The hostages are believed to be two Americans, two French citizens, and a Canadian. The attacks came two years to the day after the Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigerian Delta (MEND), a militant group, declared war against oil interests in the region. Following the most recent kidnappings, MEND promised renewed attacks. Comment: Nigeria recently began an amnesty program for MEND rebels who turned themselves in, but violence has been renewed, most notably with the attacks on Nigeria's 50th Anniversary Independence celebrations. A resurgence in violence and kidnappings will likely have a detrimental effect on the country's large oil industry, as shares dropped 9 percent in London following this week's incident. Three French sailors held by MEND for seven weeks were released on November 10. (ThisDay, ThisDay, RFI, RTT)
ZIMBABWE: Diamond exports to resume without decision from Kimberley ProcessLast week's meeting of the Kimberley Process (KP) ended without a decision on Zimbabwean diamonds. The United States, Canada, and other were pushing to block the diamonds from the market because of allegations of human rights abuses at mines in Zimbabwe, but an inspector for the KP found that Zimbabwe met the minimum conditions. The government of Zimbabwe announced after the close of the meetings that they would continue to sell their diamonds. Six diamond executives, arrested last week in Zimbabwe, appeared in court on November 8 on charges of defrauding the government to obtain mining contracts. Comment: The KP was established to prevent the sale of diamonds being used to fund wars, but there is not a consensus on how to approach situations such as Zimbabwe where the diamonds are not funding armed conflict, but human rights are being violated. The arrests last week are thought by many observers to be a political play by the government to appear to be in compliance with industry standards, but are in fact an extension of political infighting. (RFI, Diamonds.net, TheHerald, TheHerald, SWRadioAfrica)
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Americas
COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA: Continued border dispute
The Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General Insulza urged Costa Rica and Nicaragua on November 9 to withdraw security forces to ease tensions over the long standing territorial dispute. The countries were asked to resume talks, work together to determine and demarcate official border, and cooperate to combat drug and arms trafficking in the region. Nicaraguan officials stated they used Google's map system to decide where the dredging should be done. Google Latin America acknowledged that there was an inaccuracy in the shaping of the border between the two countries and it would update it as quickly as possible. Though criticized for relying on Google Maps for military operations, Nicaragua does not want the map to change. Comment: The Costa Rican government stressed that it would not attend the scheduled Binational Commission meeting on November 27 unless Nicaragua withdrew its troops. The OAS told both countries they had 48 hours (deadline November 11 at 1600 EDST) to remove all security forces from the border. (Tico Times, AP, El Nuevo Herald, El Nuevo Diario)
CUBA: Government calls first Party Congress in 14 years
On November 9, Cuban President Raul Castro announced the first Party Congress in 14 years to be held in April of next year. The sixth Congress will concentrate on the economy by promoting foreign investment, expanding the private sector, and paying off its debts without renouncing the socialist system. At the same time of the announcement, Castro and Venezuelan President Chavez extended a ten-year cooperation agreement that would be a "strategic union" between the two countries. Comment: Since assuming office in 2006, Raul Castro has taken steps to reduce the government's total control of the economy, such as decentralization of agricultural management. In September 2010, he announced plans to lay off around one million state employees and urged them to find work in the private sector. Cuba remains one of the last centrally controlled economies in the world. (BBC, Miami Herald, Reuters)
MEXICO: Latin American journalists concerned over threats in the region
The Inter American Press Association (IAPA) held a four day gathering for the 66th General Assembly, which ended on November 9 in Mexico. Latin American media leaders concluded that the two greatest threats to journalists in the region are government censorship and organized crime. Robert Rivard, the chairman of the committee on freedom of the press and information, said that journalists face the greatest risk in Mexico due to drug-gang violence. However, IAPA members are also concerned with Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Argentina due to perceived antidemocratic measures to repress independent media. Comment: Mexico is the most dangerous country for news media. At least 11 journalists were killed this year alone, despite President Calderon's willingness to offer protection and make any crime against journalists a federal offense. (AP,El Universal, Tico Times)
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East Asia
AUSTRALIA: South Sudan seeks Australian aid Eight Members of Parliament from the Government of South Sudan are set to visit Australia next week to seek Australian aid assistance ahead of the January 9 referendum. The leader of the delegation, Barri Wanji, stated that the Sudanese government was withholding funds allocated for conducting the referendum. In addition, the delegation will request that Australian election observers be sent to Sudan during the referendum. Voter registration for the referendum begins on November 22. Comment: Australia is home to 40,000 Sudanese refugees, more than any other country in the world, who fled their country because of the war. (Sydney Morning Herald) BURMA: Burma holds first elections in 20 years Elections were held in Burma on November 7, and the ruling junta stated that the election marks the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy in the country. State-run media described the poll as peaceful and successful. 3,000 candidates were contesting to be elected to a two-chamber parliament and 14 regional assemblies. Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party boycotted the polls. Two parties closely linked with the junta claimed victory with 80 percent of the votes even though only partial results have been announced. 20,000 refugees fled into Thailand after fighting broke out in parts of the country following the elections. They have now returned to Burma. Comment: Voter turnout was reportedly low. Western nations stated the vote was manipulated and unfair; however some analysts suggest that the deeply flawed election may well be the start of a process towards democratization since it provided opposition members a voice, however limited, in the decision-making process. (BBC, Bangkok Post, UKPA) INDONESIA: President Obama visits IndonesiaOn November 9, U.S. President Obama visited Indonesia as part of his official trip to Asia. He met with Indonesian President Yudhoyono, and in a joint press conference stated that Indonesia was an example of tolerance and democracy for other Muslim countries. Obama also visited the country's largest mosque. He stated during the visit he would work towards repairing ties between the West and Muslim world to end years of mistrust. Obama spent 4 years of his childhood in Indonesian and was largely well received, barring stray protests, in his first official visit to the country as President. Comment: The Obama administration is looking to increase its influence in the region, especially in light of China's growing dominance. In July of this year, President Obama announced the lifting of a decade-long ban on military assistance to the notorious Kopassus, Indonesia's elite commando forces accused of human rights violations. Moreover, his visit to the mosque is seen as a way to reach out and improve relations with the Muslim world. (MSNBC, Jakarta Post, Guardian, Daily Mail)
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Europe & Central Asia
FRANCE: Five arrested in French terror plotOn November 10, four men and one woman, all French nationals, were arrested outside of Paris on terrorism suspicions. Officials say only one suspect had thus far traveled to Afghanistan, but the others were preparing to train in Pakistan, and two were ready to "give their lives" for their cause. While the suspects' plans aren't entirely known at this point, one possible target was the Grand Mosque of Paris. Comment: France has been on high alert over the last month, due in large part to the government's banning of face-covering veils. A wave of attacks in 1995 resulted in the death of an imam, so threats are taken seriously by French officials. (French Tribune, BBC, New York Times)FRANCE: Sarkozy signs retirement bill into effectOn November 9, French president Nicholas Sarkozy signed a bill which will gradually raise the retirement age in France by two years. Unions mobilized against the bill in late September, causing strikes at oil refineries and holding massive protests, but workers eventually returned to their jobs, and the number of protesters dropped off. Up to 70 percent of the French population disapproves of the bill. Comment: While the majority of protests have ended, public approval of the bill is rather low. With elections in 2012, Sarkozy's public support must greatly rebound in order to win another election. (Reuters, Today Online, Radio Free Europe)RUSSIA: Journalists attacked, pressure put on Kremlin to protect reportersTwo journalists from Russian newspapers were brutally attacked this week by unknown assailants. On November 6, Oleg Kashin was beaten outside of his apartment, leaving him in a drug-induced coma. On November 8, Anatoly Adamchuck fell victim to a beating, although he did not require hospitalization. Colleagues of Kashin believe the attack was politically motivated due to his critical stance on the Kremlin. Comment: President Medvedev insisted those responsible will be brought to justice, even if they are found to be senior members of government. Russia has been ranked one of the worst countries for journalist protection, and nearly 500 journalists marched on Pushkin Square in Moscow on Thursday to protest. (Businessweek, Al Jazeera, Moscow Times, AFP)
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Middle East & North Africa
IRAQ: Iraqi leadership reaches agreementAfter three days of high pressure talks regarding Iraq's leadership, the deeply divided political parties reached a power-sharing deal on November 11. The agreement, which ended the eight month political deadlock, is as follows: Shiite Prime Minister al-Maliki returns to office for a second term; Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, is expected to retain the presidency; and Osama al-Nujaifi, a Sunni, will be the Speaker of Parliament. The talks come during a time when Iraq is experiencing a surge in violence. On November 10, a series of bomb and mortar attacks targeting Christians injured 24 and killed three in Baghdad. Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility and threatened more violence towards Christians. Comment: The political accord is said to provide checks and balances against the abuse of power by any group. The U.S. lauded the agreement as a "big step forward" for Iraq. Maliki will have one month to form an administration. (BBC, Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, AFP)ISRAEL: Israeli government announces settlement buildingOn November 8, Israel announced the construction of 1,300 apartments in East Jerusalem and another 800 housing units in northern West Bank. The U.S. joined international leaders in condemning Israel for the new illegal settlements in the West Bank. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton decried the announcement as "counterproductive to our efforts to resume negotiations" and a break down in peace talks. President of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas, called for an impromptu meeting of the UN Security Council to put a halt on settlement construction; however, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that there is no link between the peace process and Israel's plan in Jerusalem. Comment: Israel claims East Jerusalem as part of its territory, while Palestinians claim it as the capital of their future state. The settlement expansion will go beyond the green line established between Palestine and Israel after the 1967 war. Settlement on Palestinian territory is illegal under the UN's 1979 Resolution 446 - construction has "no legal validity" for lasting peace in the Middle East. (Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, Haaretz, BBC)WESTERN SAHARA: Violence erupts between security forces and local peopleViolence erupted on November 8 after Moroccan security forces used tear gas and high pressure water cannons in efforts to tear down a tent camp set up by at least 20,000 Saharawi outside of the city of Laayoune. The camp dwellers were protesting against the discrimination and deprivation of the Moroccan government. On November 9, new clashes between Moroccan security forces and local people in Western Sahara erupted. Moroccan police were conducting house-to-house searches while the local people defended themselves with rocks and sticks in street battles. The Polisario Front on November 9 denounced the Moroccan government for provoking violence in Western Sahara in efforts to derail UN talks. Comment: Despite the surge of violence, the UN sponsored talks went ahead as scheduled on November 8-9. UN special envoy Christopher Ross said that although both sides engaged in "broad and frank discussions" about the future of Western Sahara, each party continued to reject "the proposal of the other as a basis for future negotiations." Participants will reconvene in December as well as early next year to continue negotiations. (AP, Reuters, AFP, Reuters)
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South Asia
AFGHANISTAN: 83 percent Afghans back talks with Taliban, poll suggestsAccording to opinion poll results announced on November 9, 83 percent of Afghans back the Afghan government's efforts to negotiate with armed, anti-government groups including the Taliban; as opposed to 71 percent last year. The poll was conducted by Asia Foundation, a U.S.-based organization partly funded by the U.S. government. In addition, the poll suggested that 55 percent of adult Afghans did not support any rebel group, up from 36 percent in 2009. However, twice as many women - 20 percent - as men opposed the government's reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, reflecting concerns on the issue of women's' rights. 6,400 Afghans from all 34 provinces of the country were interviewed for the poll. Comment: The Afghan government announced this year that they had made preliminary contact with insurgents. Analysts suggest that the survey reflects growing doubt among Afghans on the capability of their government and its NATO allies to defeat the insurgency with military means alone. (Pajhwok, AP, Reuters)INDIA: Obama visits IndiaOn November 6, President Obama started a three-day visit to India as part of his four-country Asia tour. He stayed at the Taj Hotel in Mumbai, which was the site of a brutal terrorist attack in 2008. Obama addressed the Indian Parliament where he announced that the U.S. will insist to Pakistani leaders that terrorist safe-havens within Pakistani territory are unacceptable. He stressed that the relationship between the U.S. and India was one of the "defining and indispensable partnerships of the 21st Century." Obama also endorsed India's ambitions for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. In addition, the President announced USD 10 billion in new trade deals with India. Comment: The India visit provided President Obama with a chance to reassert himself on the global stage. Also, analysts state that any Afghan strategy drawn by the Obama administration would need to consolidate India given its growing economic and regional influence. (Huffington Post, BBC, USA Today, Hindustan Times)NEPAL/INDIA: India protests training of Maoists in NepalThe Nepalese Foreign Minister announced on November 6 that the India had written to his government objecting to the training of Indian Maoists rebels in Nepal. The Nepal's Maoist Party, a former rebel group turned political party, denied any involvement in the alleged training of the Indian rebels. The United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (UCPN) vice-chairman Baburam Bhattara said that the Nepalese Army had published a "fake report" which suggested his party's involvement in training Indian guerillas. UCPN's military-wing leader, Barsa Man Pun, said the allegations were part of Indian propaganda to undermine the credibility of the Maoists and sideline them from the ongoing peace process in Nepal. Comment: The Indian Maoists, also known as Naxalites, have been fighting since 1967, and the movement has spread to 20 out of the country's 29 states. It is mainly comprised of marginalized tribal groups and landless farmers. The relationship between the Nepalese and Indian rebels is unclear and has been downplayed by all parties involved. (AFP, IDSA, Hindustan Times)
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IPSI Programs Update
There are only six days
remaining until applications open for the 2011 Bologna Symposium!
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IPSI Alumni News
IPSI Alumnus Yusuf Sheikh Omar poses the question "Can you imagine Australia with a black PM?" in a The Age op-ed.
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IPSI Advisor News
Co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament and IPSI
Advisor, Gareth Evans, discusses funding shortfalls for the IAEA. Read Article >>
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