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PEACE & SECURITY REPORT
IPSI's Peace & Security Report (PSR) is a concise weekly e-publication intended to keep busy students, academics, advocates, and practitioners in the conflict management community briefed on pertinent global news, events, and trends. Meticulously researched and written by IPSI, the PSR empowers us all to take a step back from our immediate deadlines each Friday and gain a greater understanding of the week's global events. |
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| Featured Article
Colombia: President Santos's Conflict Resolution Opportunity
International Crisis Group
President Juan Manuel Santos, in office since 7 August 2010, has an opportunity to end Colombia's generations of armed conflict by building on but adjusting and substantially broadening the strategy followed for eight years by his predecessor.
Alvaro Uribe's predominantly military approach - the "democratic security policy" - did produce important security gains, but Colombia remains plagued by new illegal armed groups (NIAGs) and other criminal actors. By concentrating mainly on fighting the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), it neglected other sources of violence and, most importantly, failed to address underlying causes of the conflict. READ MORE >>
Originally published by ICG on 10/13/2010 |
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Africa
ETHIOPIA: Government signs peace deal with ONLF faction
The government of Ethiopia on October 12 signed a peace deal with a breakaway faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Representatives of the faction, which agreed to a ceasefire in June, said that fighting had become too destructive. The group will become a political party, with members receiving immunity. The government agreed to grant the Ogaden greater autonomy. Comment: The ONLF began its insurgency in 1984. The aggressive Ethiopian strategy since 2007 of completely isolating the ONLF seems to have proved effective in this case. However, the main body of the group, upset over recent business dealings in the oil-rich Ogaden region, vowed to continue fighting. It is unclear yet how much of an effect this peace deal will have on the region.(Jimma Times, AFP, New Business Ethiopia, Reuters, Bloomberg)GUINEA: Run-off election rescheduled
The presidential run-off elections in Guinea have been rescheduled for October 24.The run-off has already been twice postponed, in July and in September, because of allegations of fraud and clashes between rival factions. The UN Special Representative for West Africa, Said Djinnit, traveled to Guinea on October 13 to meet with the interim president and two run-off candidates. Cellou Dallein Diallo, a former prime minister who won 44 percent of the initial vote, alleged fraud by the election commissioner, who is being sued by Diallo's party. Interim President Sekouba Konaté has called for a coalition government by whichever candidate wins, and both candidates are considering a power-sharing deal. Comment: The October 24 elections, if successful, would mark the first presidential election for Guinea, which has been under the rule of dictators and strongmen since gaining independence in 1958. A further delay could lead to the collapse of the hoped-for political gains and a possible outbreak of violence. (UN News Service, Voice of America, RFI, AP, Accra Mail)SOMALIA: Aid cut off; AMISOM making advances
The African Union (AU) Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) continues to make advances against Al Shabaab in Mogadishu, and now controls nearly half of the Somali capital. Reports that a Burundian peacekeeper had been kidnapped and killed by insurgents was refuted by AMISOM leaders who continue their call for more troops to bolster the primarily Ugandan and Burundian forces in Mogadishu. South of Mogadishu, Al Shabaab has expelled aid organizations and prevented medical flights from landing. Former Ghanaian leader Jerry Rawlings was appointed by the AU on October 9 as a special envoy for Somalia to garner additional support for AMISOM and generate interest in the conflict. Comment: South Africa has again refused to send troops to Somalia, and the UN continues to be hesitant to intervene. However, it is worth noting that the 1992 UN intervention came after rebel groups cut off the flow of aid. (Garowe Online, New Vision, Daily Monitor, The East African, UN News Service, AFP) ZIMBABWE: Government and economy in shambles
Prime Minister Tsvangirai berated President Mugabe and announced that he would not recognize recent government appointments by the "outlaw." Although Tsvangirai's MDC-T is perceived as week by Mugabe, his ZANU-PF party is also struggling, and as all but collapsed in one province. The Mo Ibrahim report on governance in Africa ranks Zimbabwe at the bottom, and the Zimbabwe stock exchange is the worst-performing on the continent. Comment: Mugabe's decades-long grip on power has caused hyperinflation and an almost complete collapse of the economy. A coalition government with Tsvangirai never seemed to be more than a calculated move to keep Mugabe in power. (The Standard, News Day, The Economist, The Independent, The Independent)
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| Americas
BOLIVIA: New coca production law annulled
On October 11, the Bolivian government annulled a coca production law in response to widespread disruptive protests by coca growers, who blocked the main road to the city of La Paz from the Amazon region. The controversial law stated growers could only sell around 2kg of coca leaves per month compared to the usual 7kg, and that sales would be controlled by the government instead by local communities. Government officials have now called for future coordination with the coca grower organizations and have urged the protesters to stop blocking roads. The main coca growers' organization, Adepcoca, claim the new law lacks guarantees and will not lift the road blocks until they engage in dialogue with government officials. Comment: Officials claimed the law was designed to stop the sale of coca leaves to drug producers. There has been a 70 percent growth in the cocaine industry over the past few years in Bolivia, along with an increase in drug-related violence. (BBC, La Razon, Los Tiempos)COLOMBIA: Military false-positive scandal
Army Mayor Orlando Cepedes Escalona, deputy commander of the Joint Task Force in Sucre, was arrested on October 7 by the Attorney General's Office for the extrajudicial killings of 11 civilians, aggravated kidnapping, and criminal conspiracy. The victims, aged 16 to 28, were contacted by civilian recruiters for "agricultural work" on farms in Cordoba and Sucre, but instead were taken to various locations for execution. The victims were later presented as leftist guerrillas slain in combat - cases known as false-positive. Comment: The scandal of false-positive cases erupted in October 2008 with the discovery of the bodies of young men who had disappeared from a poor town in northeastern Colombia. Human rights activists suspect that incentives offered to soldiers for insurgent deaths have led to false-positive killings; more than 2,000 victims have been documented over the years. Such scandals have tainted the Colombian security forces who are accused of human rights abuses. (International Crisis Group, El Tiempo, El Universal, Latin American Herald Tribune)VENEZUELA: Chavez to strengthen ties with Russia, Iran, and others
Venezuelan President Chavez departed for Moscow on October 13 as part of an international tour to strengthen political and economic relations with Iran, Belarus, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Algeria, and Portugal. Chavez will begin his tour in Russia where he will discuss the establishment of a Russian-Venezuelan bank and the possibility of a Russian-assisted peaceful nuclear energy project in Venezuela. Comment: Foreign affairs analysts suggest the tour is not intended to alter Venezuelan foreign policy, but rather for Chavez to reassert his power in the international arena and at home. (El Nuevo Herald, El Universal, El Universal)
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East Asia
CAMBODIA/THAILAND: Cambodia denies training Thai Red-Shirt Protestors
A senior official from Thailand's Department of Special Investigation on October 11 stated that 29 members of the anti-government "Red-Shirt" protestors were trained in a Cambodian military base to assassinate top Thai officials including Prime Minister Vejjajiva. Cambodia issued a statement denying any involvement in the training of the alleged Thai militants and stating the official's comments did not reflect the government stance. Vejjajiva has now urged security officials to exercise caution while making public statements. Comment: Relations between Thailand and Cambodia have been contentious for decades. Tensions flared in 2008 over a disputed border temple. Diplomatic relations were also curtailed after the Cambodian government appointed ousted former Thai Prime Minister Shinawatra, considered a hero by the Red-Shirts, as an economic advisor in November 2009. Relations were restored only in August of this year after Shinawatra resigned. The Red-Shirt row now threatens to reverse the recent thaw in relations. (AFP, Canadian Press, Phnom Penh Post, AsiaOne)CHINA: Chinese dissident wins Nobel Peace Prize
Imprisoned Chinese dissident and writer Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 8 for his advocacy of human rights and peaceful democratic change. He is the second person to win the prize while incarcerated. The Chinese Government criticized the decision of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Many countries, including the U.S. and Japan have called for the Liu's release. Liu's wife is also reportedly under house arrest, and the U.S. and EU urged Beijing to let her move freely again. On Thursday, China rejected calls for Liu's release and stated that supporters of the imprisoned Liu were encouraging crime in the country and should stop interfering in his case. Comment: Liu is the first citizen of the People's Republic of China to win the Peace Prize. Analysts suggest that Liu's win underscored the limits of China's influence even as the country emerges as a global power. China had reportedly warned the Norwegian government in the run-up to the decision that selecting Liu would affect mutual ties and has subsequently canceled a string of meetings with Norwegian officials. (AP, AFP, Washington Post)
NORTH KOREA: North Korean official confirms succession
Yang Hyong-Sop, vice president of North Korea's parliament and a member of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, confirmed on Friday that Jong-Un will eventually succeed his father. The statement by the senior official was the first public confirmation of the succession. On Sunday, Jong-Un made his first major public appearance by joining his father for a military parade through the Pyongyang plaza marking the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Worker's Party. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-Nam, eldest son of the North Korean leader, stated in Beijing that he was opposed to the hereditary transfer of power to a third generation of his family. Comment: Seoul's Defense Minister Kim Tae-Young said on Monday that North Korea appears to have used Sunday's celebrations as "the formation of a succession platform" for Jong-Un. Selected international media were allowed into the secretive country to cover the parade. The succession was reportedly speeded after Kim Jong-Il suffered a stroke in 2008. (APTN, AFP, Daily Mail)
AUSTRALIA / INDONESIA / EAST TIMOR: Indonesia, Australia agree for more talks on East Timor asylum center
On October 13, Indonesia and Australia agreed to additional talks on the development of the proposed asylum center in East Timor. The Australian Government is pushing a proposal for a regional agreement to deal with asylum seekers. The proposal seeks to build a refugee processing center in Dili, capable of holding 2,000 detainees, in order to stem the flow of asylum seekers heading to Australia. Indonesia criticized the plan, and the head of Indonesia's immigration department, Mohammad Indra, said that the center would become a magnet for refugees. He stated, "For us, as the transit country, the processing centre will attract more asylum seekers passing through Indonesia." Meanwhile Australia on Thursday agreed that asylum seekers will not be held indefinitely and would spend a maximum of three years in the facility. The time-limit was a key condition laid down by East Timor in its negotiations over the refugee processing center. Comment: Thousands of asylum seekers travel through Southeast Asian countries every year on their way to Australia. Many link up with "people-smugglers" in Indonesia for the dangerous voyage. About 100 boats carrying more than 4,000 people have arrived this year. The influx of refugees has now become a politically sensitive issue for Gillard's fragile Labor-led coalition.(AFP, The Age, The Australian, ABC)
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| Europe & Central Asia
KOSOVO: Secretary Clinton visits Balkans
U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited Kosovo, Serbia, and Bosnia this week in an effort to encourage progress and integration into Europe. Secretary Clinton warned Bosnia that they are falling behind in integrating into the EU and expressed her support for the UN resolution passed last month calling for Kosovo and Serbia to begin talks for the first time since the war. Kosovo expressed interest in the U.S. to be a mediator in upcoming talks. Comment: Kosovo declared independence in 2008, however Serbia has yet to recognize it as a separate state. The two countries, however, have agreed to move forward with EU-brokered talks regarding the issue. (Southeast Europe Times, Reuters, AFP)RUSSIA: Eurasian nations gather to discuss crisis management
Nations across central Asia gathered on October 12 to discuss emerging issues in the region, including terrorism, drug trafficking, and immigration. The nations agreed to enhance cooperation through information sharing and mutual aid exchange during crises, among other things. No NATO member countries were in attendance. Comment: The meeting was proposed by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and attended by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States, among others. Last month, the SCO held "Peace Mission 2010," a week long military cooperation drill aimed at increasing military response and cooperation between the member states. (People's Daily, Central Asia Online, Turkish Weekly)UKRAINE: OSCE presses Ukraine to protect journalists
This week, the media wing of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) encouraged Kyiv to look into allegations of attacks and government pressure on members of the media. Media watchdogs have warned of a deteriorating situation with media freedoms since February, when President Viktor Yanukovych took office. Comment: Reporters Sans Frontieres ranked Ukraine #82 on their annual Press Freedom Index in 2009. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns expressed concern in September about the deteriorating circumstances.(, The Financial, Reporters Without Borders, Radio Free Europe)
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Middle East & North Africa
IRAN: President Ahmadinejad's controversial visit to Lebanon
On October 13, Iran's President Ahmadinejad arrived in Lebanon for his first state visit since taking office in 2005. The visit has split Lebanese politicians, highlighting internal divisions and Iran's influence in Lebanon. President Ahmadinejad plans to tour the villages of Bint Jbeel and Qan, which are close to Lebanon's volatile border with Israel. Comment: Iran's staunch support for Hizbollah is highly opposed by Sunni Muslim and Christian political parties. The visit comes at a contentious time for Lebanon as tensions are running high over an investigation of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri. (BBC,BBC, The Christian Science Monitor)IRAQ: Iraq and Syria improve bilateral ties
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki visited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on October 13. Maliki seeks support for a bid to retain his position as prime minister after inconclusive elections left Iraq's government at a standstill. The visit aims to improve relations in the political, commercial, and economic sectors between the two countries and to promote the joint interests of security and stability in the region. Comment: Iraq and Syria have experienced strained diplomatic relations for decades. Last year, Maliki accused Syria of harboring those responsible for deadly blasts in Baghdad that left around 100 dead and 600 wounded. By improving bilateral relations, Maliki hopes that Syria uses its influence to end the political stalemate in Iraq and convince parties to join the government. (Reuters, AP, AFP)KUWAIT: Migrant domestic workers' rights abused
Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report on October 6 detailing the increase in abuse of migrant domestic workers in Kuwait. Many workers face minimal protection from their employers, work long hours with no days off, and are physically and sexually abused. In recent years, workers from Sri Lanka, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Ethiopia have filed more than 10,000 complaints of abuse to their respective embassies. Comment: There are 660,000 migrant domestic workers in Kuwait constituting nearly a third of the work force in a country of only 1.3 million citizens. HRW called upon the Kuwaiti government to include migrant domestic workers in the country's labor laws, and to abolish the sponsorship system which gives employers complete control over a worker. According to AFP, the Kuwaiti government plans to abolish the system in February. (BBC, AFP, UPI)
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South Asia
INDIA: India elected as non-permanent member to the UN Security Council
On October 12, India was elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. India secured the votes of 187 out of the 191 member states in the General Assembly. Interestingly, Pakistan also voted in favor of India's bid for the Security Council seat. The Permanent Representative of India to the UN in New York made a statement that Pakistan's vote signaled that the two countries could indeed cooperate in the UN. South Africa, Germany, Colombia and Portugal were also elected on Tuesday for the two-year term that will begin in January of next year. Comment: Serious negotiations on the expansion of the Security Council are set to begin next year. India is aiming for a permanent seat on the Council. All "G-4" members: India, Brazil, South Africa and, Germany are now in the Security Council. The G-4 is seeking the expansion of the Council and analysts predict the countries will now work together closely. (Times of India, Bloomberg, NDTV, The Hindu)INDIA: India appoints mediators to ease Kashmir tension
India appointed a three-member mediation team on Wednesday to ease tensions in the Indian-Administered Kashmir. Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram said the new mediators - journalist Dilip Padgaonkar, academician Radha Kumar and government official M.M. Ansari - could begin talks immediately with all stakeholders, including separatist leaders. Prominent separatist leaders however dismissed the announcement calling it "meaningless." Many Kashmiris also reportedly voiced disappointment at the composition of the team since it does not include any members of the political establishment. Comment: Indian-Administered Kashmir has seen numerous strikes and street protests since June leaving over 100 dead. The announcement of the mediation team comes one month after an Indian all-party delegation, which included government and opposition politicians, went to the region in an attempt to stop the violence from escalating. The move was seen as a tacit acknowledge to the rising public disaffection. (BBC, AP, Financial Times)
SRI LANKA/ INDIA: Sri Lankan President to visit India amid protests
Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa is in India as the guest of honor at the closing ceremony of the 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi. Human rights groups and the Tamil diaspora are criticizing India's invitation to Rajapaksa citing Sri Lanka's human rights record. There were stray protests in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu on Thursday and over 100 protestors were arrested. Rajapaksa is expected to meet Indian Prime Minister Singh during his visit. Comment: Analysts see India's invitation as an attempt to counter increased Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. India supported the Sri Lankan government's war against the Tamil Tigers last year and has so far made no comment on alleged human rights violations.(BBC, Colombo Page, Sify)
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IPSI has committed to hosting an Atlas Corps Fellow as a Program Officer for the Bologna Symposium.
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IPSI ADVISOR UPDATE
 IPSI Advisor Jan Eliasson calls for "a more normalized discussion about reproductive health." ____________________
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IPSI SPEAKER UPDATE
 IPSI Contributor John Prendergast and actor George Clooney are interviewed about their recent trip to Sudan and meeting with Obama. ____________________
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