Pat Webb - Phase 2 Advisors
 
A Few Bright Spots
Weekly Update - October 8, 2012
In This Issue
Performance
Headlines
Recipe
Golf Tip
Health Tip
Green Fact
The Markets:

 

Markets started the week off slowly, but quickly picked up steam after several upbeat economic reports were released. Despite the headwinds blowing across global economies, a handful of important domestic indicators showed that the economy improved in September. All three major indices responded well to this news, posting their first positive week in three weeks, and the Dow finished at its highest level since December 2007. [1] 

 

The biggest news last week was that Friday's jobs report showed that the unemployment rate slid to 7.8% - dropping to a near four-year low - and the economy gained 114,000 new jobs in September. While these numbers beat economists' expectations, the not-so-great news is that many of the jobs added were only part time. While it's too early to see the full effect of the Fed's QE3 program, the monthly jobs report is one of the best indicators of the economy's current state of health. Since the whole point of QE3 is to create more jobs and soothe jittery markets, economists and analysts will likely key in on this report to gauge the effectiveness of the Fed's plan.[2] 

 

In the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes released last week, we were able to gain some insight into the Fed's decision to use mortgage bonds (instead of the usual Treasury securities) to bolster the economy. According to the official release, Fed officials determined that boosting the housing market was a good way to lift the broader economy.[3]  According to remarks by Chicago Fed President, the Fed will continue its QE3 actions until unemployment falls below seven percent.[4]

 

Moving ahead, we should not be surprised to see some market volatility as earnings season heats up. Of the 103 S&P 500 companies that have provided earnings guidance, 78% of them (80) have issued a third-quarter forecast that falls below the Wall Street consensus estimate. But that doesn't mean you should buy into the doom and gloom forecasts you may be hearing. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, even during the peak of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, more than half of S&P 500 companies topped Wall Street estimates in the third and fourth quarters of 2008.[5] As always, we'll be keeping an eye on things; and we'll be keeping you informed. We hope you have a great week!

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
Monday: U.S. bond markets closed for Columbus Day Holiday
Wednesday: Beige Book, Treasury Budget
Thursday: International Trade, Jobless Claims, EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday: Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

 

Performance


 
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.

Headlines

Gas prices are still rising. Retail gasoline prices, already at the highest levels on average since July 2008, are likely to continue to climb this month as refinery and pipeline problems overshadow weakness in U.S. consumer demand.[6] 
 
Manufacturing expanded in September. The latest ISM manufacturing report shows that the manufacturing sector expanded last month after three months of contraction, showing that the housing boom may be spreading to other industries. Despite the growth, respondent manufacturing firms are still uncertain about their short-and medium-term futures.[7]
 
European PMI shows return to recession. An important business report shows that dwindling new orders, layoffs, and a worsening business environment means Europe will not return to growth before 2013, at least. Despite actions by the ECB and major Eurozone economies, businesses are still not optimistic about their futures.[8]  
 
Retail sales in China slowed during the extra-long Golden Week holiday compared with last year, Reuters reported Sunday. Overall sales rose 15% during the eight-day holiday, which is actually slower than last year's 17.5% increase, Reuters said, citing local media.[9]

 

 

 

Quote of the Week

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, you're right."

- Henry Ford

Recipe of the Week

Thumbprint Cookies


 
These simple cookies are super-easy to make and perfect to enjoy with coffee.
Recipe from RealSimple.com.

 

Ingredients:
1 roll refrigerated sugar cookie dough
1/3c apricot or raspberry jam


Directions:
1) Roll the sugar cookie dough into tablespoon-size balls and place on baking sheets.
2) Make a well in each ball with your thumb. Fill the wells with the apricot jam or raspberry jam.
3) Bake at 350 F on parchment-lined baking sheets until just beginning to brown, 15 to 18 minutes.

 

 

 

Golf Tip
Relaxed Muscles

One famous, quarterback/golfer made a statement that relates to nearly all sports: "If you are relaxed, your body will do pretty much anything you ask it to do." When relaxed, muscles work better. The ball goes farther. The ball goes straighter. Tension is the enemy of good golf. So the next time you're on the golf course, don't forget to breathe deep, take your time, and enjoy yourself. You'll play better if you do.

Healthy Lifestyle
Give Aching Knees a Break
 
If you sit too much, your knees may not be getting enough lubrication, leading to knee pain. If so, try the quad pump, a quick exercise that causes your cartilage to produce lubrication. To perform the exercise, sit in a chair and extend your legs straight out so that your heels rest on the floor. Tighten your quadriceps, the thigh muscles above your knees. Hold the contraction for 2 seconds then release. Repeat five times to squeeze lubrication into your knee joint. For best results, perform this exercise a few times throughout your day.

Green Living
Choose a Non-Disposable Lifestyle


If you're concerned about the amount of trash that your household generates - which has to be collected, transported, buried, and then replaced - consider limiting the number of disposable items you allow in your house. A few easy things to replace:
 
Plastic Bottles: If you're drinking enough water - you might be tempted to buy bottled water when out and about. A simple, cheap, less-wasteful replacement is a metal or plastic travel bottle and a home water filter.
 
To-Go Cups: Instead of taking your favorite drink in a disposable cup, bring your own or ask for a for-here cup. You'll be amazed at how much better you'll feel by reducing your daily waste. Some coffee shops even give customers a small discount for providing their own cup.

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!
 
 
 
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets  The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S.
Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity,  measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops.  The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.

The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict
future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative or named Broker dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

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[1] http://www.cnbc.com/id/49301087

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pat Webb
Pat Webb - Phase 2 Advisors
8100 Turman Ct
Fort Collins, CO 80525
970-776-3306
patwebb@phase2adv.com
http://www.phase2adv.com