"Winning the Future Amidst a Mountain of Debt"
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On February 14, President Obama released his FY 2012 budget proposal that would "put forward a plan to rebuild our economy and winthe futureby out-innovating, out-educating, and out-building our global competitors." He also stated that the U.S. should "invest in our people without leaving them a mountain of debt." His priorities in the proposal included science and technology, education, and national infrastructure.
This task has become more difficult in the continuing failure of the Congress and the White House to reach an agreement on the budget for FY 2011, which began on October 1, 2010. On March 18, the President signed the congressionally-enacted sixth Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government open. This CR runs out on April 8. As you read this, Washington is rife with talk of a coming government shutdown.
For COSSA, producing this special issue that analyzes the president's budget proposals has presented a dilemma. Do we continue to wait for the final FY 2011 numbers or do we move ahead. After two months we have decided to do the latter. When the final appropriations for the current fiscal year are known we will amend the charts in the issue and post them on COSSA's web page.
On February, the Republican-led House of Representatives laid down its marker by enacting H.R. 1, which proposed reductions of $61 billion from the FY 2010 appropriated levels and included a number of policy riders unacceptable to the Senate and the White House. As negotiations over FY 2011 continue, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) expects to announce his plan for the FY 2012 spending resolution that the House will enact. Soon the Administration will ask Congress to raise the debt ceiling, so the U.S. can keep borrowing to pay its obligations. This could create another fiscal crisis as some Republicans have balked at doing this without more spending reductions.
Over on the Senate side, we have been hearing for weeks about a bipartisan effort to craft a budget proposal that would incorporate many of the recommendations of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, led by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson. These proposals include reducing federal spending, dealing with entitlement programs such as Medicare, Social Security, farm subsidies, and others, and reforming the tax system. So far, the Senate proposal remains unrevealed.
The obstacles to fiscal health are demonstrated by the numbers. In FY 2009, the federal deficit was $1.413 trillion or 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product. In FY 2010, as the great recession receded a bit and the President's stimulus package took effect, the deficit decreased to $1.293 trillion or 8.9 percent of GDP. The White House estimate for FY 2011 is a deficit of $1.645 trillion or 10.9 percent of GDP. In FY 2012, the Administration calculates a deficit of $1.1 trillion or 7 percent of GDP.
As he did in his FY 2011 proposal, the President announced a freeze in non-security discretionary spending. For FY 2012, the Administration proposes spending $1.34 trillion, of which $884 billion would occur in the security discretionary category and $456 in non-security discretionary programs. Mandatory programs in FY 2012 would cost $2.142 trillion and net interest on the debt $242 million. Receipts from taxes and other levies for FY 2012 are estimated to reach $2.627 trillion or 16.6 percent of GDP, after historically low numbers in FY 2009 and 2010.
Another interesting phenomenon is that for many agencies the President's FY 2012 request is below what he asked for in FY 2011. He has also eliminated or reduced funding for over 200 programs, some of which have been eliminated in the FY 2011 CRs.
Science and Technology Budget
Science and Technology (S&T) are keys to "winning the future" according to the Administration because research is the key to innovation. The President's plan for S&T in FY 2012 includes a "substantial increase" for the National Science Foundation (NSF) to keep it on a doubling path. The first year of that path and the last year seem to have gotten lost in the rhetoric.
Other priorities include: moving toward a clean energy future; defeating dangerous diseases and achieving better health outcomes; understanding global climate change and its impacts; developing technologies to protect our troops, citizens, and national interests; and infrastructure, including supporting wireless innovations. The Administration requests $3.4 billion in FY 2012 for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Education across the Federal government. The Administration also remains committed to multi-agency research and development (R&D) activities with increases over FY 2010 for the National Nanotechnology Initiative (up 10.4 percent), Networking and Information Technology R&D (up two percent), and Climate Change R&D (up 20.4 percent).
Despite all this commitment, the budget proposal seeks a total of $147.9 billion in FY 2012, up from spending of $147.4 billion in FY 2010, with the FY 2011 request at $147.7 billion. The request for Basic Research in FY 2012 is $32.9 billion, up from $29.4 billion in FY 2010, and a request of $31.3 billion in FY 2011. Applied research goes to $33.2 billion in FY 2012 compared to $29.8 billion in FY 2010 and $30.3 billion in the FY 2011 request. Again the development and facilities and equipment categories face reductions, but some of that comes from the transfer of funding for the International Space Station from R&D facilities to research.
National Science Foundation
The National Science Foundation (NSF), under its new director Subra Suresh, seeks to remain the "engine of innovation" for the U.S. as its premier basic research agency that funds all the sciences and engineering. The FY 2012 request is $7.767 billion, a thirteen percent increase over FY 2010. H.R. 1, on the other hand, wants to reduce NSF's FY 2011 spending $359 below the FY 2010 level.
The Research and Related Activities account, which funds the research directorates, including SBE, has a proposed 12.4 percent boost over FY 2010 to $6.254 billion. The Education and Human Resources directorate's proposed funding goes up by 4.4 percent over FY 2010 to $911.2 million.
With the FY 2012 proposed increase NSF would enhance its commitment to a number of interdisciplinary and cross-directorate programs. The Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) initiative would rise to almost one billion dollars. SEES is designed to foster innovative insights about the environment-energy-economy nexus. Cyberinfrastructure Framework for 21st Century and Science and Engineering (CIF21) would develop and deploy advances in cyberinfrastructure to accelerate the ability of data intensive activities to effectively address the complex problems facing science and society. Other programs include: a national robotics initiative, a wireless innovation fund, enhancing access to the radio spectrum (EARS), and research at the interface of the biological, mathematical, and physical sciences.
In the STEM education arena, NSF will introduce three new programs: Teacher Learning for the Future, Widening Implementation and Demonstration of Evidence-based Reform (WIDER), and Transforming Broadening Participation through STEM. NSF will continue increasing the number of new Graduate Fellowships, while at the same time eliminating the GK-12 fellowship program.
Under the President's FY 2012 proposal, the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBE) directorate would receive a $45 million increase from FY 2010 to $301 million. SBE plays a significant role in SEES, and has pieces of CIF21, EARS, and some of the other Foundation-wide initiatives like Cybersecurity. A new area for SBE will fund research on population focusing on migration and aging. With the enactment of the renewal of the America COMPETES Act at the end of 2010, the former Science Resource Statistics division has become the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics.
SBE will continue its support in FY 2012 for the Science of Science and Innovation Policy (SciSIP) research and the development of STAR METRICS, a program that will help the federal government document the value of its investments in research and development. By contrast, SBE will begin the phasing out of the Science of Learning Centers.
National Institutes of Health and Other Health Agencies
The enactment of the Affordable Care Act (aka health reform) in 2010 has provided a significant influx of funding for research and evaluation activities. Most significant is the Prevention and Public Health Fund (PPHF), which will boost funding for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). In addition, all of these agencies have a role in funding Comparative Effectiveness Research.
The Administration proposes to increase funding for NIH to $31.987 billion for FY 2012, a 2.4 increase over FY 2010. By contrast, H.R. 1 calls for a $1.6 billion reduction from NIH's FY 2010 level. Social and behavioral research continues to achieve recognition across all the NIH Institutes and Centers. The Basic Behavioral and Social Sciences Opportunity Network (OppNet) initiative, although not reaching the funding levels the community hoped for, has become a program in which almost all the Institutes have agreed to participate. The Science of Behavior Change initiative included in the Common Fund has also boosted the centrality of these sciences.
A National HIV/AIDs Strategy developed by the Administration recognizes the role of the behavioral and social sciences in stemming the pandemic by helping to prevent new cases and supporting those living with the disease. The National Institute on Drug Abuse has funded investigations on the HIV/AIDs problem in criminal institutions. Many institutes have incorporated support for research on health disparities. The Genome Institute remains interested in funding research on Gene-Environment interaction and the Ethics, Legal, and Social Implications related to genomics.
Health economics has gained a foothold in the Director's Common Fund and across many of the Institutes, while the National Institute on Aging continues its significant support for the Health and Retirement Survey, combining economics, biomarkers, and behavior to examine options and decisions for those retired and about to retire. Support for the National Children's Study continues with the main study scheduled to begin in 2012.
Under new director Francis Collins, NIH has begun a new emphasis on translational medicine with a new proposed national center that has raised some discussion in Congress as it seeks to eliminate the National Center for Research Resources. The Institutes have also increased their commitment to training the next generation of health researchers.
AHRQ maintains its focus on determining health outcomes and the effectiveness of health expenditures and a special emphasis on the implementation and evaluation of Health Information Technologies. CDC, aside from its major role in the PPHF, provides an increase for the National Center for Health Statistics to enhance its health surveys, although the magnitude of the increase is the same requested last year.
Research and Data in the Departments
At the Department of Agriculture, Catherine Woteki has returned to government service to become the Undersecretary for Research, Education and Economics. With the demise of earmarks, much lamented by members of the House Agriculture and Rural Development Appropriations Subcommittee, overall funding for the Department was reduced in the President's proposal. The main formula funding activity of the National Institute on Food and Agriculture (NIFA), the Hatch Act, also saw a significant decrease in the request. However, NIFA's Competitive Grants program has a requested increase to $325 million, not as large a requested boost as in FY 2011, but $62.5 million above the FY 2010 number.
The Economic Research Service proposes a new Center for Behavioral Economics and once again asks to lead a statistical-system wide effort to improve data access and processing and to conduct an administrative record pilot project. The National Agriculture Statistics Service gets a slight increase and will continue to fund the Census of Agriculture.
The taking of the 2010 decennial census is over. The Census Bureau has released the national data as well as the state-by-state data for reapportionment and redistricting purposes. The decennial count was completed in such an efficient manner that the Bureau returned $1.8 billion of appropriated funds to the Treasury. As in all early years of the next decennial cycle, the Bureau's budget would decline in the Administration's FY 2012 proposal. The Bureau conducts the Census of Governments and the Economics Census in 2012 and hopes to begin research to prepare for a 2020 census in a time of uncertainty. The Bureau also continues to seek an increase in the sample size for the American Community Survey, which has come under political attack with amendments to abolish it proposed during the consideration of H.R. 1 and a new bill to make it voluntary, sponsored by Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX).
The Administration proposes another significant increase for the Bureau of Economic Analysis to implement a number of initiatives, some of them back from last year's proposal, to improve data on energy usage, household income and spending.
In the Education Department, the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act to fix No Child Left Behind remains on the congressional agenda. Education is clearly part of "winning the future." The Administration provides enhanced resources for the Institute of Education Sciences, particularly for research and evaluation, in its FY 2012 proposal. It also seeks to implement a proposal that has been on the drawing board for a number of years, moving the Javits Fellowship program for graduate students in the social sciences, humanities, and arts into the Graduate Assistance in Areas of National Need (GAANN) program.
Despite repeated calls for American students to beef up their foreign language skills, the Administration level funds the Title VI and Fulbright Hays programs. Taking advantage of the end of earmarks, the President proposes to use the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education (FIPSE) to initiate a major effort, called First in the World, to encourage research on innovative approaches to improving college completion.
At the Department of Homeland Security, the Science and Technology Directorate has reorganized its research accounts to give it more flexibility. It remains interested in human factors, particularly behavioral detection. The President again proposes a decrease in the funds for the Office of University Programs, which could result in the elimination of one or more Centers of Excellence.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development continues to seek funding for its Transformation Initiative, which provides for a one percent set-aside of program funds to help support research and evaluation. In FY 2010 this led to a $26 million transfer into the Office of Policy Development and Research. After requesting a major increase for OPD&R in FY 2011, the Administration has lowered its sights and provides a $9 million boost from FY 2010.
The idea of a set-aside for research and statistics has also become part of the President's request for the Office of Justice Programs (OJP). In FY 2010 the set-aside was one percent of OJP program funding, in FY 2011 and now in the FY 2012 proposal, it has increased to three percent. With John Laub and James Lynch at leaders of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), these agencies are in a position to increase their important activities. However, the base budgets of both agencies remain small and in BJS' case the FY 2012 request is smaller than the FY 2010 level. BJS will continue to revamp the National Crime Victimization Survey. NIJ, has its National Academies' report to implement, including investing more in social science research.
At the Department of Labor, an emphasis continues on program evaluations. The proposed FY 2012 budget for the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes funding for a new youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Study. To get the new cohort, the proposal would spread out the field operations for the older 1979 and 1997 cohorts.
With improving national infrastructure as another key to "winning the future," the President has asked for a significant increase for the Department of Transportation in FY 2012 tied to the reauthorization of the Surface Transportation Act and a National Infrastructure Bank. To enhance data collection under these initiatives, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics would have its budget increase to $35 million, after many years in the $27 and $28 million range.
Growth for the exchange programs in the Education and Cultural Affairs Bureau at the State Department has slowed in recent years and the Obama Administration's emphasis continues on Muslim countries. The Woodrow Wilson Center has a new leader; former Congresswoman Jane Harman has replaced former Congressman Lee Hamilton. The Center gets a slight increase for FY 2012 from the Administration's proposal. The United States Institute of Peace, which loses most of its funding in H.R. 1, has a slight decrease in the FY 2012 request from its FY 2010 funding.
Finally, the National Endowment for the Humanities would suffer a reduction in the President's FY 2012 proposal, with the elimination of the Bush Administration's We the People Initiative. The National Historical Publication and Records Commission, a part of the National Archives that has been a target for budget cutters for many years, would see its $10 million funding halved under the Administration's FY 2012 request.
The priority for cutting spending is the dominant budgetary message promulgated, not only by House Republicans, but throughout Washington. The big question is by how much? The attempts to fashion a comprehensive solution to the nation's budgetary fix could gain momentum in the next few weeks and months. The window may be short, given we are entering presidential campaign time. How this affects the final decisions on FY 2011 and the fate of the FY 2012 budget proposals discussed in this issue, remain Given that these are debates over the priorities for the nation, now and in the future, and the quite different visions of the major protagonists in this battle, the outcomes are difficult to predict or even fathom.
Howard J. Silver, April 2011.
