The mailback phase of Census 2010 came to an end on April 16.  The Non-Response Follow-Up (NRFU) conducted by the Bureau to find those who did not return their questionnaires will begin on May 1.  On April 8 and 9, the 2010 Census Advisory Committee, of which COSSA is a member, met and although there was plenty of discussion of this year's count, it was also time to look ahead to the next ten years.

As of April 16, the participation rate for the mailback of the 2010 Census form was 68 percent, compared to a comparable figure of 72 percent in 2000.  The Bureau expects the 2010 number to move up a bit after the weekend returns are logged in.  Given the difficulties facing the 2010 count from the vacant housing caused by the recession to the impact of immigrant fears to political sniping as well as the general decline in response rates to surveys, the mailback participation is within the expected range.  The Bureau spent considerable sums on advertising and worked with partners and local governments to entice people to respond by mail.  The Bureau and the Gallup Organization were able to track daily returns by census tract, enabling targeting of efforts.  Census Director Bob Groves expressed satisfaction in the Bureau's ability to work with real-time data, but also voiced his frustration with the familiar patterns of non-response.  There are indications that the outreach activities worked well in some hard-to-count areas, while difficulties remained in many others.   The Bureau has a lot of follow-up research to conduct.

With NRFU on the immediate horizon and the results and their impact on reapportionment, redistricting, and federal fund formulae still to come, the 2010 counts will remain the focus of the Bureau's efforts and Congressional oversight for the foreseeable future.

At the same time, the Advisory Committee heard about the onset of planning for the next Census in 2020.  Deputy Director Tom Mesenbourg explained the Corporate Priority Setting the bureau will undertake to "identify strategic priorities and cost efficiency opportunities."  This will affect not only planning for the next decennial, but the other programs the Bureau supports.  The strategic themes, according to Mesenbourg, include:  improved internal and external collaboration; adopting responsive, adaptable, and resilient designs; standardizing and simplifying work processes; data-driven decision making through innovative analysis and use of data; and wise governance and corporate standards.  The Bureau has solicited ideas on each of these and will continue to work on implementing those that seem most promising.

Key Issue for 2020 Census:  Bringing Costs Under Control

In a presentation on planning for the 2020 Census, Daniel Weinberg, Assistant Director for the American Community Survey (ACS) and Decennial Census, declared that a key goal for the next decennial will be to bring the costs of the count under control.  He noted that 2010 will be the most expensive census in history.  Yet, he indicated, as we move to 2020 the nation will become more demographically and culturally diverse, "with a growing population characterized in part by informal, complex living arrangements and by swiftly evolving technology."

To bring costs under control will "require fundamental change," Weinberg asserted.  Most important, he declared, was:  "Robust, early planning and investment in research."  In addition, "a substantial change in approach must occur in order to link budget, risk, schedule, and acquisition to planning research, development, and testing," he argued.

His preliminary conclusions are that achieving reduction of costs for 2020 can occur by:  1) tailoring methods to the many and diverse subgroups of the population (such as through the use of the Internet to gather information from the technologically literate); 2) reusing administrative data where possible (such as for non-response); 3) designing software to reduce staff time; and 4) updating continuously the address frame over the decade.  The Bureau has indicated in its FY 2011 budget submission its intention to carry out #4.

In its preliminary thinking, Weinberg reported, the Bureau is examining six possible operational design alternatives that would affect address canvassing, use of administrative records for follow-up, self-response enumeration, and the field infrastructure.  The first would simply enhance the baseline from the 2010 Census.  The second would move to a mixed-mode; part electronic, part mailback enumeration, but still include a person visit follow-up, with targeted address canvassing, and a decentralized field infrastructure.  The third would include using administrative records as well as person follow-up.  The fourth would rely mostly on administrative records for follow-up and include targeted address canvassing and mixed mode enumeration.  The fifth would go to almost all electronic responses, eliminate address canvassing and local field offices.  The sixth would rely on administrative records for follow-up with a mixed mode self-response, but no address canvassing and no local field offices.

The Bureau intends to conduct research on all of these alternatives in the next few years, including using the annual ACS to test software and hardware improvements.  The ACS plans an Internet self-response test in 2011. 

Participating as a formal discussant on Weinberg's presentation, COSSA Executive Director Howard Silver picked up on his comment about the increasing diversity of the nation as we move forward.   He suggested a continued focus on the changing nature of race and ethnicity in the country illustrated by the debate within the Advisory Committee on the use of "Negro" on the 2010 questionnaire.  The word remained for 2010 despite objections by many in the African American community.  Silver suggested some see the United States moving into a post-racial era.  President Obama's election is referred to as a key event in this movement, as well as the continued attempts by people such as Ward Connerly to eliminate race from surveys and affirmative action.  In addition, surveys of young people, such as the Pew Center's study of the Millennial Generation, appear to reinforce this notion of a post-racial nation.   At the same time, there is a continued racial and ethnic pride both personal and community-wide throughout America. 

Trying to measure the tension between these changing views of race and ethnicity is a challenge to the society as well as the Census Bureau in the coming years, Silver concluded.  Weinberg responded that the Office of Management and Budget will during this decade once again examine its definition of race and ethnicity for federal surveys, including the Census.  We should also expect those who have congressional oversight responsibility for the Census to weigh in on this issue as well.

• Lonnie Ali - the wife of Muhammad Ali is an outspoken advocate working to raise awareness of Parkinson's disease as well as increase funding for research.
• Anita L. Allen - the Henry R. Silverman Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania Law School where she also serves as Deputy Dean for Academic Affairs of the school and Senior Fellow in the Bioethics Department, School of Medicine.
• Barbara Atkinson - the Executive Vice Chancellor of the University of Kansas Medical Center who concurrently serves as the Executive Dean of the University of Kansas School of Medicine.
• Nita A. Farahany - an Associate Professor of Law and Philosophy at Vanderbilt University.  Her research focuses on the legal, philosophical, and social issues arising from developments in the biosciences, particularly behavioral genetics and neuroscience.
• Alexander G. Garza - the Assistant Secretary for Health Affairs and Chief Medical Officer for the Department of Homeland Security
• Christine Grady - the Acting Chief of the Department of Bioethics at the National Institutes of Health's Clinical Center.  Her research focuses on research subject recruitment, incentives, vulnerability, and international research ethics. 
• Stephen L. Hauser - the Robert A. Fishman Distinguished Professor and Chair of the Department of Neurology at the University of California, San Francisco.
• Raju Kucherlapati - the Paul C. Cabot Professor in the Harvard Medical School Department of Genetics.  He is also a professor in the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. 
• Nelson Michael - the Director of the Division of Retrovirology at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research and the Director of the U.S. Military HIV Research program (MHRP). 
• Daniel Sulmasy - a Franciscan Friar, who holds the Kilbride-Clinton Chair in Medicine and Ethics in the Department of Medicine and Divinity School and is associate director of the MacLean Center for Clinical Medical Ethics at the University of Chicago. 

  -The Math and Science Teacher Shortage: What the Data Tell Us presented by Richard M. Ingersoll of the University of Pennsylvania-Graduate School of Education, on behalf of the American Educational Research Association; 

  -Digital Media and Children presented by Daniel R. Anderson of the University of Massachusetts, on behalf of the American Psychological Association; 

 

-Poverty, Marriage and Trust: New Insights for Policymakers presented by Linda Burton of Duke University, on behalf of the American Sociological Association; 

 - People, Employers and Jobs: New Data, Reliable Analysis, Better Confidentialitypresented by John M. Abowd of Cornell University, on behalf of the American Economic Association; 

 

-Climate Change Effects on Tropospheric Ozone and Human Health

presented by Montserrat Fuentes of North Carolina State University, on behalf of the American Statistical Association; 

 

-Children's Social Understanding and Social Experience: Matters for STEM Education presented by Melanie Killen of the University of Maryland, College Park, on behalf of the Society for Research in Child Development; 

 

-Panel Study of Income Dynamics presented by Frank Stafford, representing the University of Michigan;and  

-The Effects of Emotion on Economic Decision Making presented by Jennifer S. Lerner of Harvard University, on behalf of the Federation of Associations in Behavioral and Brain Sciences