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Lanning Financial Inc. For the week of August 1, 2011 |
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Lanning Financial Inc.
636 Fourth Street
San Francisco, CA 94107 415.354.5699 ph. & private fax
Jessica Lanning and Lanning Financial provide mortgage services and financial strategies that bring focus and perspective to your individual financial needs. |
| Just For Fun... | |
"I know the owner of this new Asian cultural exchange and dance studio. She and I dance together at this crazy gym class on Friday nights, but I can hardly keep up with her. Check it out!"
Studio Botan
GRAND OPENING PARTY
NORTHERN JAPAN CHARITY NIGHT
AUGUST 13th
6:00-8:00pm
735 Montgomery St., Suite 100, San Francisco, CA 94111
SPECIAL PERFORMANCES
Bay Area Flamenco Group:
Las Japonesas Flamencas, Pole Arts/Acrobatics,
Hula & Tahitian, special gifts from Botan and more!
100% OF ALL DONATIONS WILL GO TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN JAPAN RELIEF WORK
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Studio Botan
OPEN HOUSE
August 14th (Sunday)
10:00am-6:00pm
POLE 101 (RSVP)
10:30am - 11:30am
DANCER'S STRETCH & CORE
12:15pm - 1:15pm
OPEN POLE PLAY TIME
2:00pm - 3:00pm
POLE 101 (RSVP)
4:00pm - 5:00pm
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Botan
Japan Asia Cultural Exchange
Visit: www.BOTAN.co
Email: sayaha@botan.co
Call: 415.683.8259
Follow: BotanSF on Twitter |
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Last Week in Review... | |
"I GET IRRITATED, NERVOUS, VERY TENSE OR STRESSED, BUT NEVER BORED" French actress Catherine Deneuve. Those words sum up the state of mind not only in the markets last week, but also across the country. The Dow finished its worst week in a year and Mortgage Bonds traded in a volatile fashion last week, mirroring the tense - and often irritating - news out of Washington. These are anything but boring times. But how does the Debt Ceiling debate impact Bonds and home loan rates? Read on to find out.

Going my way? The volatile and uncertain news story created a rare trading correlation between Stocks and Bonds. Often, Stocks and Bonds trade in an inverse direction (meaning that if one goes up, the other typically goes down). However, in 8 out of 10 recent days, both Stocks and Bonds have traded in the same direction - and this unusual scenario has happened less than 1% of the time over the past decade.
No need to panic. One important item to note is that the recent losses in the Bond market are far from a "panic selling" scenario, which indicates that the market senses that a deal will ultimately be made on the debt ceiling debate and that in the long term US Debt will still provide a relative safe haven from global uncertainty and economic sluggishness.
After all, the weak economy in Europe is still a factor. And in a world where there is high uncertainty and weak economic prospects, the US Bond Market will continue to attract funds - which could help keep home loan rates attractive for now.
Two Scenarios... No one knows exactly how the Bond market would react if the August 2nd deadline comes and goes without a debt agreement, since this has never happened before in the history of our country. But here are two scenarios to consider...
- If a deal DOES pass, which many experts still think will happen, any deficit reduction program should strengthen the value of US debt, because there will be less spending. At the same time less government spending will also weigh on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). And just last week we saw how weak the GDP already is when the 2nd Quarter GDP came in well below expectations and at the slowest growth rate in 2 years. Additionally, the 1st Quarter GDP was revised sharply lower than it was previously reported. Remember, a weak GDP would make Stocks LESS attractive and Bonds MORE attractive - as Bonds generally perform better during sluggish economic times.
- If a deal does NOT pass, the Treasury will be unable to auction off new securities since we will be unable to take on new debt as a country because we have reached our debt ceiling limit. The lack of new Bond supply coming to the Bond market will make existing Bonds/Treasuries/Notes more valuable - which is the opposite of what happens when new Bonds continue to flood the market.
Time for a contingency plan? Last Friday, Mortgage Bonds got a boost higher on news that a Debt Ceiling contingency plan would be brought forth by the Treasury Department. The plan would ensure present holders of US debt will receive their interest payments on time before making other payments, even if the debt ceiling is not raised. Such a move would likely push out the original August 2nd deadline to somewhere in mid-August, helping the US buy some more time as the frustrating-to-watch Debt Ceiling debate wages on.
The bottom line is that Bonds are still holding their own and home loan rates are still attractive for now. So if you or someone you know has been considering refinancing or purchasing a home, it's a great time to look at your options. After all, this is a very volatile world and the current bullish sentiment in Bonds could change in a hurry. | |
| Forecast For The Week... |
As the Debt Ceiling debate impacts Stocks and Bonds, the markets get set for a week of heavy-hitting reports:
- We start off right away Monday morning with the ISM Index. This is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
- On Tuesday, the markets will see reports on Personal Spending and Personal Income, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation.
- The big topic of the economic reports this week will be the labor market. First up is the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, which measures non-farm private employment.
- The ADP report will be followed by another round of Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. In last week's report, Initial Jobless Claims broke below the 400,000 mark for the first time in 16 weeks! I'll be looking forward to this week's report to see if that trend continues.
- Finally, the busy week culminates in the all-important Jobs Report on Friday. This report features new data regarding Non-Farm Payrolls, the Average Work Week, Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. Needless to say, this report can be a big market mover!
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates finished strong at the end of last weekend, as uncertainty had investors opt for the safe haven provided by Bonds. I'll be watching closely to see how the ongoing Debt Ceiling debate and the after shock impacts Bonds and home loan rates.
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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, July 29, 2011) | |
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| The Mortgage Market View... | |
How to Cut Cooling Costs in a Heat Wave
These eight tips will help keep your electric bill under control.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com
It is hot outside. Too hot to even go to the pool because the water's so warm that it doesn't cool you down. So what do you do if you live in a part of the nation taking a beating from this heat wave? You retreat indoors and crank up the AC. Then you gasp when you see the electric bill and start looking for possessions to pawn to pay it.
Keeping cool doesn't have to bankrupt you, though. Edison Electric Institute (EEI), the association of shareholder-owned electric companies, offers these eight simple, no-cost tips to help you keep your electric bill under control this summer:
Set the thermostat at 78 degrees or higher when you're home. That's where I keep my thermostat set, and I feel comfortable at home all day -- even when the heat index outside is in the triple digits. When no one is home, turn up the thermostat to 85 degrees. You'll save 1% to 2% on cooling costs for each degree you raise your thermostat, according to EEI. And be sure to clean your air filter every 30 days to keep your air-conditioning system working efficiently.
Close the curtains or shades on any south- or west-facing windows to save 2% to 4% on cooling costs.
Turn on ceiling and table fans then raise the thermostat setting about four degrees -- you'll still feel cool. Make sure ceiling fans are turning counterclockwise and use them only when you're in the room.
Shut doors to unused rooms and close any air supply vents inside them to reduce cooling costs up to 3%.
Cook with the microwave instead of a regular oven to reduce cooking costs up to 90%. If you can stand the heat outside, cook on a grill to lower cooking costs even more.
Install compact fluorescent lights. You'll reduce lighting costs per fixture by about 66%, according to EEI. Be sure to turn off lights that aren't being used and, if possible, dim ones that are being used.
Wash and dry full loads of clothes and dishes to save 2% to 4% on energy costs because you'll be washing fewer times than if you ran your appliances to wash several smaller loads. You'll also save by using cold water rather than warm or hot.
Check out your power company's Web site because all electric companies offer money-saving tips, and many have energy-saving programs and incentives, including free online energy audits, rebates for purchasing high-efficiency appliances and low-interest loans to help purchase high-efficiency appliances.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com . | |
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| RECOMMEND YOUR FAVORITE PROFESSIONALS... | | Jessica is looking to expand her business network and is looking for outstanding professionals in the following fields:
· Tax Attorney · Nutritionist · Relocation/Moving Specialist · Marketing Specialist
If you know someone who is really great, please connect that person to me! Thank you! | |
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| This Week's Economic Indicator Calendar... | |
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of August 01 - August 05, 2011
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors. As your trusted advisor, I am sending you Lanning's LiveWire because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please email: jlanning@jessicalanning.com If you prefer to send your removal request by mail, the address is: Jessica Lanning, CMC Lanning Financial Inc 636 Fourth Street San Francisco, CA 94107 Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. |
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Jessica Lanning
Lanning Financial Inc.
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