Beyond the
Trading Desk
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This winter certainly seemed like a long one. It's great to see the signs of spring. The longer days and warmer temperatures are most welcome. Get out there and enjoy it!
Good news came in late January as I received passing results from the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ examination I took in late November. Becoming a CFP® professional has been a personal goal since starting this business in 2006. Having the two-day, ten hour test behind me is a relief. With only about 55,000 CFP® professionals in the U.S., it is a very highly respected designation.
On a sadder note, my Uncle passed away earlier this month. He was a good man, who lived a good life. He was a positive influence on me and, as I've come to learn, on others as well. Sandra and I were able to travel to his home in Florida for a last visit and we are so glad we did. As hard as it was, we know he appreciated our being there with him and to support my Aunt. He passed peacefully without suffering. He died as he lived...with dignity and grace.
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Last Quarter Round-Up The first quarter of 2009 was an extremely volatile one. The markets headed lower from the start of the quarter and didn't stop until early March. Much of this in my opinion was due to the lack of policy leadership coming from the U.S. Treasury. The economic fundamentals did not justify a move so far below the November lows. The end of quarter rally was likely due to improvements in the monetary policy message. The market was looking for clear policy direction and finally started getting it. The Fed's action to buy long Treasury bonds along with suggested modification of mark-to-market rules were seen as positive. Be careful not to get excited too quickly...even after the March rally the market is only slightly above the November lows. The equity strategy last quarter favored U.S. large cap stocks in both Growth and Value over small caps & International. The fixed-income strategy favored long bonds over inflation-protected bonds. Quarterly asset class results: Large Cap -11.02%; Small Cap -12.45%; International -16.21%; Long bonds -11.43%; Inflation-protected bonds +3.54%.
Global Economic Outlook Last quarter I expected to see quicker, more positive monetary policy direction. It didn't come until late in the quarter. Now that the Treasury has started to give clearer policy direction, I am again cautiously bullish for the coming quarter. Although I expect the economy to weaken further, I believe the rate of weakening will slow. That is how recoveries begin. I am amazed at how much attention is being paid to the inflation expectation from the stimulus legislation. While I agree the current money supply growth and Government spending are inflationary, the fact remains that we are in a deflationary environment now. I believe it's too early for anything more than a hedge position in the inflation investment tactic. My equity strategy for the coming quarter will continue to favor U.S. over International, but I will begin adding to Small cap positions. I also intend to start getting back into emerging markets and commodities. The fixed-income strategy will be to hold positions in long and hi-yield bonds while maintaining a hedge position in inflation-protected bonds.
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Notes: Asset class & style returns are based on the price-only performance of ETF's & ETF blends with similar respective focus. Asset class and Style results do not reflect the performance of Barron Financial Group, LLP's advisory accounts. Advisory accounts may not contain these investment strategies and may contain investment strategies not described here. Advisory services include asset management fees that are not reflected in these results. Please contact Barron Financial Group, LLP for more information about specific asset class, style or portfolio returns.
Barron Financial Group, LLP is an Investment Advisory firm
registered with the CT Department of Banking
Non-Advisory Securities offered through Purshe Kaplan Sterling Investments, member FINRA/SIPCheadquartered at 18 Corporate Woods Blvd., Albany NY 12211
ACCREDITED WEALTH MANAGEMENT ADVISORSM and AWMA®
are service marks of the College for Financial Planning.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the
certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ and  in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete
CFP Boards initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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