Last Quarter Round-Up The fourth quarter of 2008 was a stunning quarter. We moved from a slowing economy showing signs of lower inflation to one of full recession and deflation. Virtually every asset class lost value. The S&P 500 finished the quarter down -22.56% and -38.49% for the year. We may very well be in the worst recession since WWII, but we are nowhere near the kind of financial distress seen in the Great Depression. The Federal government pulled out the stops with regard to its interventions and that did start to have an impact on one of the major problems...the credit crisis. Although far from resolved, the credit markets have loosened and that will allow financial activity to begin to recover. Our equity strategy last quarter favored U.S. large cap stocks while underweighting international and emerging markets. The fixed income strategy favored long bonds while holding positions in inflation-protected and high-yield bonds. Quarterly asset class results: Large Cap -22.07%; International -20.32%; Emerg. Mkt. -26.92%; Growth -25.56%; Value -23.03%; Inflation-protected bonds -2.23%; Long bonds +24.35%; Hi-Yield -6.52% (See Notes)
Global Economic Outlook I am cautiously bullish about the next quarter. It seems we have moved beyond the worst of the news and the financial markets appear to be stabilizing. I feel the action of the Fed will continue to improve the credit market. Credit access is critical to getting the economy back to normal. As expected, the Fed cut its target rate and that will support economic activity as the quarter progresses. Looking forward, I am very concerned about inflation. We do not need to worry about that in the short-term, but I will be watching it closely. My equity strategy for the coming quarter is to continue to favor U.S. large cap stocks with a mix of Growth and Value. The fixed-income strategy favors long bonds as the Government continues its efforts to drive down long rates. I expect to lighten positions in inflation-protected bonds and hold positions on high-yield bonds. I am expecting this quarter to show signs of improvement in the housing market. Inventories will stabilize or begin to shrink as sales improve later in the quarter.
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Coping with a Difficult Market  Date: Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Time: 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
Location:
VNA Northwest Inc., 607 Bantam Rd. (Rt 202) Unit F., Bantam CT 06750 Description:With the current economic situation now "officially" labeled a
recession, it's more important than ever to be thinking about your
investment portfolio. How have the events over the last several months
affected your retirement plans? For most the impact has been
substantial. I believe the investment landscape has changed
dramatically and will stay that way for years...not months. In this
discussion I will talk about why the landscape may be different now and
what options you have to deal with it.
Who Should Attend:
This
presentation is geared toward those nearing retirement and are
expecting their savings to play a significant role in their retirement
income. Visit Our Website:www.barronfinancialgroup.com
Notes: Asset class & style returns are based on the price-only performance of ETF's & ETF blends with similar respective focus. Asset class and Style results do not reflect the performance of Barron Financial Group, LLP's advisory accounts. Advisory accounts may not contain these investment strategies and may contain investment strategies not described here. Advisory services include asset management fees that are not reflected in these results. Please contact Barron Financial Group, LLP for more information about specific asset class, style or portfolio returns.
Barron Financial Group, LLP is an Investment Advisory firm
registered with the CT Department of Banking
Non-Advisory Securities offered through
Purshe Kaplan Sterling Investments, member FINRA/SIPC
headquartered at 18 Corporate Woods Blvd., Albany NY 12211 |
