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Hopefully the old adage, March comes in like a lion
and goes out like a lamb proves true for both the
weather and the stock markets. Based on what we
have seen so far, it appears as though we are right on
track for a calm finish to both for the month.
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The Markets
While both the "bulls" and the "bears" have reason to
believe in themselves, neither have taken the reigns.
Every time we see a rally, it seems the bears come in
and gradually take it away. Every time we have seen a
pull back, the bulls have rallied.
In the end, it seems that optimism is controlling the
market. Those feeling the market will rise, the bulls,
believe the worst is behind us. They also feel
that recent economic data points to the expected: a
slowly moving economy. In addition, they believe that
recent market losses are providing some bargain
stock
prices. That said, their lack of conviction shows that
many have some concerns about economic and
market conditions.
Those who feel the market may decline, the bears,
fear that recent economic data points toward a
possible recession at the end of 2007 or early 2008.
They feel that the recent pull back is just the beginning
of the market turbulence for 2007. That said, they too
lack the conviction to drive the market. They appear
concerned that the bulls may be right; the worst might
be behind us.
In the end, we will likely see relatively flat markets until
investors see substantial strength or weakness from
the US or major foreign economies. Unfortunately, I
believe that we are more likely to see continued
weakness in the economy and the markets over the
next few months.
Research Publications
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